Don't Ignore This Chart

Mylan (MYL) Moves Higher

Mylan (MYL)  is a strong chart technically and the price action this week is pretty interesting. 

Mylan had a nice surge from October to November moving 30%. After building a consolidation pattern sideways, Mylan pushed up against resistance late last week. After a brief pullback, Mylan is breaking above resistance today. 

With the SCTR pushing back above 75, the stock is behaving very well and outperforming 75% of its peers. We can see the relative strength in purple has started to accelerate as well.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT

Euro ETF Gets a Continuation Signal

After consolidating for four weeks, the Euro ETF (FXE) is making a bid to continue its downtrend with a break below consolidation support. The bottom chart shows FXE forming a triangle after an extended decline. This is a consolidation within a downtrend and it represents a rest within that trend. Today's break signals a continuation of the long-term downtrend. The top chart shows the US Dollar ETF (UUP) making a bid to break triangle resistance and continue its uptrend. 

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Intel Battles Gap and Relative Performance

Intel is having a tough time this year. In fact, Intel (INTC) has been having a tough time since early December. The stock peaked around 37.5 in early December, formed a series of lower highs into mid January and then gapped down in late January. This gap-plunge broke support and the break is holding as broken support turns resistance. The February bounce formed a rising flag and a break below 33.5 would signal a continuation lower. The indicator window shows the price relative (INTC:SPY ratio) breaking down in late January and hitting a multi-month low this week.

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Gold Gets a DP Trend Model SELL Signal

It was bound to happen. Gold has been struggling with a correction that began when price failed to reach the August 2014 high. The intermediate-term DP Trend Model generated a SELL signal today when the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA. Since the 50-EMA was below the 200-EMA, it created a SELL signal. If the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA, we consider it to be in a "bull market" and consequently we want our model to reflect that by going on a Neutral signal rather than a SELL. The only reason the signal took so long to arrive was that the previous rally had helped the 20-EMA put some real distance between it and the 50-EMA. We had warning that gold was beginning to tarnish when the PMO had a negative crossover its 10-EMA at the beginning of February. Now the PMO has taken itself out of the rising trend it had enjoyed since late last year. This is very bearish. Additionally, the PMO is only sitting in neutral territory so it has plenty of downside left before it becomes oversold.

Don't forget to sign up to attend my next DecisionPoint LIVE! webinar on Wednesday, February 25th. Here is a link to the sign up page. Be sure to tweet your chart requests @_DecisionPoint for guaranteed review or bring them to the webinar and it might be chosen for review at the end of the program. 

Happy Charting!


Bristol Myers Gets a Histogram Signal

Bristol Myers (BMY) is making a bid to turn back up and bounce off support. On the price chart, the stock firmed above the December-January lows in February and moved to its highest level of the month today. The indicator window shows the MACD Histogram turning positive, which means MACD moved above its signal line. This is the first sign that momentum is improving. 

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Has Taser Corp (TASR) Got Your Back?

Taser Corp (TASR) is one of the most controversial stocks on the exchange. The maker of taser units for police forces worldwide rarely enjoys positive press. The company has been diversifying their product line and the stock is currently building a nice bullish triangle. Looking through the indicators, the SCTR is over 95% and has been there for months so that is a real strong indicator of a great stock. The relative strength shown in purple continues to push higher. 

The MACD is really interesting here. After making a huge bullish run from July to December, the stock has paused for 60 days. The MACD has gently pulled back near zero and looks ready to turn up here. With the volume diminishing to a small roar, it looks like we are running out of sellers. This might be a stock that adds a little zap to your portfolio. Plan the trade, trade the plan.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT

Pre-defined Technical Alerts Continue Green

Chartists can regularly check the Pre-defined Technical Alerts page for clues on market trends. Green alerts dominate the last three days and these green alerts come from the stock market. Just today, the Russell 2000 hit an all time high and the Nasdaq hit a 4-year high. Multi-year highs occur in secular uptrends. 

Click this image to visit the Technical Alerts page 

Cybersecurity - Where To Start Investing In This Industry Group

The cyber-crimes business seems to be very profitable. The recent bank attacks taking more than $300 Million from banks all over the world really helps to frame how big the issue is. Defending against this, called cybersecurity, seems to be profitable too. 

I am not a biotech specialist but I understand higher highs and higher lows. The diversity within the biotechnology scientist dominated field is immense. Without studying the individual components of this industry, we can study the ETF to understand what is going on. Here is a link to Biotech iShares (IBB). We can see it seems to be a top performer almost all the time. One quick look at the SCTR at the top shows that this is a very consistent out performer, ranking in the top 10% of all ETF's.  Again, I am not a biotech specialist, but I understand higher highs. 

How does this relate to cybersecurity? As I mentioned earlier, one of the benefits of an ETF is it allows you to invest in a wide variety of companies with one tool. Recently a new ETF was started for cybersecurity called HACK. Without studying the components of the ETF, which you can study here if you are so inclined, you are able to invest in the fast moving industry without trying to figure out who the winners are.  In the last few days, this ETF has now moved to be in the top 11% of all ETF's based on the SCTR. Success begets success, with institutional investors looking to add to what is working and selling what is not working. Top performing ETF's are a good clue to strong industry groups.

Look at the huge volume in the last few days, which coincides with President Obama's Cybersecurity summit and FireEye announcing eye popping earnings.

With the volume shooting up above 1 million shares/day, this looks like it is starting to run. You'll have to look for your entrance that you like, but the fact that it is starting to become a top performing industry group should put it on a growth investors watch list.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT.

Don't Put Gentex in your Rearview Mirror

I did one of my favorite scans today and it produced a little known company (among others) called Gentex Corp (GNTX). I actually had to look up what their business was about. Interestingly, they manufacture auto-dimming rearview mirrors. I wanted you to see this chart regardless of its obscurity because it looks very bullish. What the future holds for GNTX is uncertain, but it's definitely worth a look.

GNTX came up on my scan that pulls stocks with new 5-EMA crossover 20-EMA and new Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) positive crossover. Additionally the stock needs to be in a "bull market" which means the 50-EMA is above the 200-EMA. Here is the scan:

AND [TODAY'S PMO LINE(35,20,10) > TODAY'S PMO SIGNAL(35,20,10)]

The GNTX chart below shows the 5/20-EMA crossover that is happening at the same time as the 20-EMA is crossing over the 50-EMA. This implies that GNTX just went on Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signals. Additionally we see a PMO crossover that is occurring in oversold territory. Finally, the SCTR value is above 70 and rising. As far as price, it has just broken through declining tops line resistance and has some room before hitting the next areas of resistance.

Happy Charting!

**This is NOT a recommendation to buy, it is an informational "flag". Follow-through with your own research.


S&P 500 ($SPX) Joins The 2015 Worldwide Chorus Of New Highs

For Valentine's Day, the market shared its love by pushing the broad S&P 500 ($SPX) to new intraday highs. Germany, Australia, France, Thailand, Indonesia, Shanghai, India and The Netherlands have all made new 52 week highs in 2015.

The Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) also made new highs earlier this week with lots of the large cap tech stories driving higher.

With the $SPX up almost 5% this looks like a sign that the new investments are rotating away from the defensive sectors into the offensive sectors. We have also broken out of the range near 2060. While we test the December 2014 top here, there seems to be lots of support for a worldwide bull market lifting off here. The US has been in one but Europe recently corrected 15% along with Australia correcting 10%. It's the worldwide improvement that is important to help the US major companies keep growing. Two weekly closes above this level would lock in the break out.

I will be writing an article on Bonds and the $USD on The Canadian Technician blog. It should be there later today. I think it will be very important for people positioned defensively. I would also encourage you to review the webinar from Thursday, February 12, 2015 where I discuss the bonds in the late portion of the webinar.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT