Don't Ignore This Chart

Alaska Air Bucks the Selling and Remains Strong

Alaska Air (ALK) fell sharply in early June, established support just above 46 and bounced off this support zone the last few days. This is impressive considering the selling pressure that hit the market this week. Notice the hollow, or white, candles. These form when the close is well above the open, which means there was buying pressure during the day. The indicator window shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) holding above 70 as ALK continues to show relative strength. 

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VIX Seasonality Shows a Strong Tendency in July

There are seasonal tendencies and then there are STRONG seasonal tendencies. Over the last 20 years, the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) has moved higher 80% of the time in the month of July. This follows the weakest month, June, which shows a rising VIX just 25% of the time. A strong tendency for a higher VIX in July suggests that the S&P 500 could close lower this month. Don't forget about ChartCon, an action packed conference featuring Richard Arms, Alexander Elder, John Murphy and Martin Pring - live and in person.  

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) Tries To Break Out Again

The Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is an all encompassing ETF for the emerging markets. Currently, the world is very bullish, but the EEM has traded sideways for years. Recently, I published a blog on the EEM back in May. You can read that blog here by clicking through on this link. Are Emerging Markets Emerging?

Let's look at the updated chart.

Continue reading "Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) Tries To Break Out Again" »

A Rough Week for Utilities

It was a short week, but stocks moved higher with eight of the nine sectors gaining. As the PerfChart below shows, the consumer discretionary and technology sectors led with 2+ percent gains. The utilities sector was the lone loser with a 2.83% loss. Also notice that the consumer staples sector gained just .37% and lagged the others. Money was clearly moved into offensive sectors this week.  

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Shooting Star Takes Shape in Apollo $APOL

Apollo (APOL) hit resistance at broken support last week and then formed a shooting star this week. This shooting star represents a failed intraday rally. Notice how the stock surged to 32 on Tuesday and then fell to close near 31. This failure also occurred when the market rallied on Tuesday. The indicator window shows MACD(5,35,5) just above its signal line. A move below the signal line would indicate a downturn in upside momentum.  

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There Is Gold To Be Found In A Few Places This Summer - GDX

Gold. That shiny metal that is all the rage even when it is on a sell signal! Something caught my eye on the miners and it was that shiny little indicator SCTR.

However, something is pretty compelling on this chart.

Continue reading "There Is Gold To Be Found In A Few Places This Summer - GDX" »

RYDEX Bears Stay In Hibernation

Technical Analysis includes a wide range of indicators. Finding the final peak or valley on a chart is always difficult. When something seems extreme, it can always be more extreme. A good example of unanimous extremes is a mid year look is the Rydex sentiment. In March it was ringing the bell as being extreme. Some have gotten more extreme. My comments are unchanged since March. 

The Top ratio is near the euphoria of Spring 2000 and making new 13 year highs. The bear index is slightly above the 2014 lows on the chart. We can see the Moneymarket has broken to new lows since March.  Lastly, the Total assets ratio is wobbling in a tight range that seems similar to the 2007 period.

Just a heads up. Chartcon 2014 has a few spots left. With 12 outstanding speakers, the opportunity to have a dominant technical perspective heading into an exciting fall 2014 should be one of the most significant advantages to attending. You can click here to sign up. Chartcon2014 ... Apparently a few hotel rooms are left, but this is the last week for those. Chartcon2014...Book it now... Chartcon 2014. I don't know if Martin Pring, John Murphy and Alexander Elder have ever spoken at a forum ever. Three world renown technical investment authors at less than the price of any single one. Chartcon2014

Good trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT




Michael Kors Weighs on Retailers with Break Down

Michael Kors (KORS) led the market in February with a massive gap and new high, but the stock has fallen on hard time in June with a trend line break and relative breakdown. On the price chart, KORS broke the internal trend line and support zone with a sharp decline below 90. Broken support turned resistance and held the last two weeks. The indicator window shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR)  breaking decisively below 50 and remaining weak. With a SCTR score of 23.6, KORS is underperforming over 70% of large-caps. 

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Traders are Developing a Sweet Tooth for this ETF

Spot Sugar ($SUGAR) has been in a downtrend for years, but this commodity may be turning the corner with a higher low and falling wedge. The chart below shows the Sugar ETN (SGG) surging in February and then correcting with a falling wedge the last 3-4 months. The ETF reversed near the 62% retracement and is trying to break above the wedge trend line now. The indicator window shows Spot Sugar for reference.  

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CBS and FB Lead Most Actives, while XRX and PWB Show Big Relative Moves

Chartists can find stocks and ETFs on the move using the six tables in the middle of the home page. The image below shows four of these tables: most active Nasdaq and NYSE stocks, large-cap SCTR movers and SCTR movers for ETFs. Notice that Facebook and CBS are up strong on the most active lists. XRX and PWB are up strong on the SCTR tables. Chartists can click the CandleGlance links below to see individual charts for all ten symbols on each page. 

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Sector MarketCarpet Turns Mostly Red, but Two Sectors Stay Green

The MarketCarpet for the nine S&P sectors turned mostly red on Tuesday with seven sectors down and just two up. Utilities and healthCare were the only two holding on to their gains in the late afternoon. Notice that energy is the darkest red. This means stocks in this sector are down the most. Double click within any sector to see the individual stocks.  

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