Don't Ignore This Chart

November 2010

Don't Ignore This Chart

ATVI Forms Triangle Above Broken Resistance

by Arthur Hill

After a breakout in early November, Activision (ATVI) consolidated with a triangle over the last few weeks. The consolidation slowly narrowed with the stocks trading between 11.45 and 11.86 the last nine days. A break from this range will trigger the next signal. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Aroon Turns Negative as XLI Forms a Bear Flag

by Arthur Hill

The Industrials SPDR (XLI) bounced over the last two weeks, but the rise looks like a bearish flag. Also notice that the ETF formed a harami on Wednesday-Friday last week and the Aroon Oscillator turned negative for the first time since mid September. A break below 21 would signal a continuation of the early November decline. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Loonie Surges and Forges Higher Low

by Arthur Hill

The Canadian Dollar Index ($CDW) is showing strength with a higher low in November and big surge this week. Also called the “Loonie”, the Canadian Dollar exceeded its summer highs in October and then consolidated several weeks. The overall trend here is up with the next resistance just above 100. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Green Squares in the Market Carpet

by Arthur Hill

The market carpet shows a sea of red over the last two days, but there are a few green squares to be found. There are six in the consumer discretionary sector and five in the technology sector. Big Lots (BIG) is up over 5% and New York Times (NTY) is up over 4%. In fact, “The Gray Lady” surged with big volume the last two days. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Retail SPDR Bucks the Decline

by Arthur Hill

Stocks moved sharply lower on Tuesday, but the Retail SPDR (XRT) bucked the trend and closed with small gain. The chart below shows XRT breaking flag resistance with a gap up four day ago and closing higher the last five days. ALso notice that the price relative recorded a 52-week high. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Ireland Stock Index Fails at Resistance

by Arthur Hill

Irish stocks surged to resistance last week, but got cold feet on Monday and reversed course after today's bailout news. The chart below shows the Dow Jones Ireland Index ($IEDOW), which is updated throughout the day. The index broke above its Sep-Oct highs on Friday, but reneged on this breakout with a move lower on Monday. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

52-week Highs Bounce Back

by Arthur Hill

After dipping earlier in the week, Nasdaq and NYSE 52-week highs bounced back with a surge on Thursday. A list of these market leading stocks is posted every day on the pre-defined scans page. There were 75 new highs on the Nasdaq and 91 on the NYSE. You can also view new highs for the Amex, TSE and CDNX. Click this image for a live page. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

The First Trendline and Resistance for GM

by Arthur Hill

Even though there is not any real historical data for GM, keen chartists can start with the 1-minute and 5-minute charts for the first technical signals. On the 5-min chart, GM is clearly in a downtrend as it trades below the trendline extending down from 10:45AM. This trendline and the small consolidation mark resistance around 34.4-34.6. In mission impossible style, this commentary will self-destruct in 10 seconds. 10,9,8,7 Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

IWM Traces Out an Island Reversal

by Arthur Hill

With a gap up, consolidation and gap down over the last two weeks, the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) forged an island reversal. Notice that there were no trades around 71.8 with the gap up and no trades at this level with the gap down. IWM needs to fill the gap down to negate this bearish reversal pattern. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

DIA Breaks Channel Trendline as Momentum Turns Negative

by Arthur Hill

With a sharp decline the last eight days, the Dow Industrials SPDR (DIA) filled the early November gap and broke the channel trendline. Also notice that the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) moved to its lowest level since September 1st. The combination indicates a corrective period unfolding. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Ichimoku Cloud Remains Bullish for $XLK

by Arthur Hill

The Technology ETF (XLK) remains in bull mode as it trades above a green cloud and the Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line) holds above the Kijun-sen (Base Line). The Tenkan –sen (blue) is the average of the 9-day high-low range. The Kijun-sen (red) is the average of the 26-day high-low range. The first negative signal would be when the Tenkan-sen moves below the Kijun-sen. See our ChartSchool article for more on Ichimoku Clouds. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

XLF Tests Resistance Breakout with Pullback

by Arthur Hill

The Finance SPDR (XLF) broke resistance with a big surge last week and broken resistance now turns into the first level to watch for support. This is a basic tenet of technical analysis (broken resistance/support turns into support/resistance). Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Utilities Show Relative Weakness as Rates Start to Rise $XLU

by Arthur Hill

With 30-year Treasury yields moving higher, the interest rate sensitive utilities sector may start feeling the heat. In contrast to the S&P 500, the Utilities SPDR (XLU) peaked in October and formed a lower high in November. The price relative confirms weakness as it moved to a new low this week. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

An evening star reversal for ATI plus 13 others on NYSE

by Arthur Hill

Allegheny Technologies (ATI) formed an evening star over the prior three days. This bearish reversal pattern consists of three candlesticks: a long white candlestick, a small body candlestick and a long red candlestick to complete the reversal. The predefined scans page showed 14 such patterns forming on the NYSE and 3 on the Nasdaq. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

A year for hard assets

by Arthur Hill

2010 is going to be known as the year of the hard assets. The PerfChart below shows the S&P 500, Silver, Gold, Oil, the Dollar and the Euro. Stocks are up, but lagging the three commodities. Both the Euro Index and the Dollar Index are down for the year. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Homebuilders SPDR breaks resistance

by Arthur Hill

The Homebuilders SPDR (XHB) finally broke above resistance with a surge the last few days. XHB was one of the laggards because it had yet to break its July high. This changed on Thursday as the ETF broke resistance with a gap and long white candlestick. Also notice that the price relative turned up. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Newmont breaks flag resistance, but lags gold

by Arthur Hill

After retracing around 62% of the prior advance, Newmont Mining (NEM) broke above flag resistance with a surge over the last few days. The breakout was under threat with Wednesday’s pullback, but Thursday’s surge keeps the flag breakout in play. There is one concern. NEM remains well below its Sep-Oct highs, but gold is challenging its October highs. NEM is lagging gold. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Regional Bank SPDR holds support with harami

by Arthur Hill

After plunging on Monday, the Regional Bank SPDR (KRE) firmed on Tuesday to form a harami. This is essentially an inside day. Also notice that the ETF managed to firm near the 62% retracement mark. Wednesday's surged above Monday’s high confirms the harami. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

A weekly outside reversal for Natural Gas $NATGAS

by Arthur Hill

The Natural Gas Continuous-Futures ($NATGAS) formed a large weekly outside reversal pattern last week. Combined with a falling wedge and support in the 3.3-3.5 area, Natural Gas is threatening a bounce within its long downtrend. Watch the MACD-Histogram for a move into positive territory to signal some upside follow through. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Strong Yen weighs on Nikkei

by Arthur Hill

The Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) failed at resistance as the Yen surged to new highs. The Nikkei 225 surged in September, but never broke resistance as a weak Dollar drove the Yen higher. It is possible that an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern is forming, but there are no signs of support or strength in October to forge the right shoulder yet. Read More