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DP Trend Model Neutral Signal on Technology ETF (XLK)

by Erin Swenlin

The Technology ETF (XLK) looks a lot like the SPY (see DecisionPoint Blog article, "Double-Top and Initiation Impulse Spell Trouble") which is not a good thing right now. First, the DecisionPoint Intermediate-Term Trend Model generated a Neutral signal when the 20-EMA crossed below the 50-EMA. It was not considered a SELL signal by the Trend Model because the 50-EMA was above the 200-EMA when the crossover occurred. The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) was unable to affect a positive crossover and in fact turned down below its EMA which is very bearish. The next problem for XLK is the Read More 

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Gold (GLD) Pulls Back To Test The 200 DMA

by Greg Schnell

Gold is getting a rough ride the last few days. Today the Gold Tracking ETF (GLD) pulled back to test the 200 DMA. This is typically an important line in the sand. If it can hold here and start to move higher that would be significant. Gold has been very finicky over the last few years. You can see each peak was one day above a previous peak and then it rolled over hard. One exception occurred a few weeks ago with the taking out of October 2014 high of 120.50. GLD just kept marching on. The high recently at 125 was just slightly above the final uptick at the 200 DMA Read More 

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Bond Market Says Lower Rates Ahead

by Arthur Hill

Another Fed statement has come and gone, and Treasury bonds simply continue to march higher. The chart below shows the 7-10 YR T-Bond ETF (IEF) hitting yet another 52-week high today with a big move above 110. The indicator window shows the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) moving below 1.75%. The 2012 lows mark the next target in the 1.5% area and this means bond prices could move even higher.  Read More 

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Retail SPDR Holds Key Area and Shows Relative Strength

by Arthur Hill

The chart below shows the Retail SPDR (XRT) bouncing off a support zone and remaining in an uptrend. For relative strength, the first indicator window shows the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) above 90, which means XRT is in the top 10% of our ETF universe. The second window shows the price relative (XRT:SPY ratio) bottoming in early October and moving higher. This means XRT is outperforming SPY the last 3-4 months.  Read More 

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How Much Wood (WOOD) Can A WoodChuck Chuck?

by Greg Schnell

The iShares Lumber Related ETF (WOOD) has been stuck in a wide trading acreage for the better part of a year. Today it made a decisive move to the upside. Today it was the tallest twig on the chart. The SCTR notched its highest level in a year and the relative strength line made new 6 month highs. While this is a low volume ETF,  there are a lot of good looking stocks in the forestry group. A lot of the Canadian Forestry stocks do well with a strong US Dollar. 4 of the top 10 Holdings in (WOOD) are non US based. They are also producing energy through cogeneration Read More 

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Starbucks (SBUX) Sends The SCTR Skyward

by Greg Schnell

Starbucks (SBUX) reported earnings yesterday. The earnings were good but the power in the stock move was based on the earnings call. Howard Schultz, Chief Barista for the investors brew, was glowing about the opportunities in Asia. Here is the chart. Recently SBUX pushed the SCTR above 75 in December and then retreated. This push back up in January is bullish as it shows a confirmation of a very strong stock where investors are increasingly bullish on the story. If the broader markets hold up here, I would expect Starbucks to continue to perform well. A major gap to new highs Read More 

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Blackrock Leads Assets Managers Group Higher

by Arthur Hill

The finance sector came to life on Thursday with leadership from banks ($DJUSBK) and asset managers ($DJUSAG). The chart below shows asset manager Blackrock holding its breakout and surging off support with a big move above 355. Notice that the stock shows a little more "chart" strength than the Finance SPDR (XLF) and DJ Asset Managers Index ($DJUSAG). BLK broke above the high from the first week of January, but XLF and $DJUSAG did not (yet). Note that you can enter $INDUSTRY and $SECTOR to see the corresponding sector or industry group for a stock. Set the legends at "verbose" to see Read More 

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Six Semiconductor Stocks Lead on SCTR MarketCarpet

by Arthur Hill

The image below comes from a MarketCarpet for the Nasdaq 100. It is set to show the biggest changes in the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). The biggest gainers have dark green boxes and the biggest losers have dark red boxes. Notice that seven green boxes come from the semiconductor group (AMAT, INTC, NVDA, LRCX, LITC, TXN and XLNX). Some basic instructions are shown below the image.  Instructions for getting the SCTR Movers on the Nasdaq 100 MarketCarpet: 1. Open the major indexes market carpet.  2. Double click on the Read More 

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NetFlix (NFLX) Shows A Flicker Of Upside

by Greg Schnell

Netflix (NFLX) has introduced the world to the easiest way to spend a day watching a series of shows one after the other. It is remarkable how a technology can change a behaviour of adults so fast. After repeatedly asking kids to not spend hours in a row watching TV, the parents get absorbed in a series and have trouble stopping at 'just one'. When Netflix was pulling back, everyone wondered if that would be the final high with all the competition in the online streaming space. It still might be, but for the first time in a few months, Netflix broke above it's downward trend Read More 

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Chocolate Always Looks Great! Hershey Hits New Highs

by Greg Schnell

As we head into Valentine's day, Hershey's breaks out. It has had a smooth climb for a while now. This is part of Consumer Staples. As a defensive sector, we can see the growth in the stock price since the October lows. This is a good example of acceleration into the defensive sectors as investors look for stability from the commodities instability. However, since Cocoa topped out, Hershey's has soared! The SCTR has just moved above the 75 level which is usually bullish. The volume that accompanied the breakout is excellent. Good Loving! Good Read More 

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Time To Start Thinking About A Long Bond Reversal ($USB)

by Greg Schnell

It has been a huge move on the $USB from one end of the spectrum to the other. It was a year ago that we discussed getting long the TLT which represents the long bond. With the extreme move over the last three weeks, we have reached the upper trend line. A move above the upper trend line is still possible, but this has been a huge trend through 2014 and this would appear to have signs of exhaustion with all the gapping as shown in the zoom panel. The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is clearly at the top end of an extreme move. In the last 30 years, there have only been 4 moves Read More 

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Consumer Discretionary Sector Turns Deep Red, But Utilities See Green

by Arthur Hill

The Sector MarketCarpet shows serious selling pressure in the consumer discretionary (cyclical), energy and technology sectors on Thursday because they are the deepest red. In contrast, the utilities sector is bright green because utility stocks advanced as money sought yield. The consumer staples sector also attracted some buying interest because it is a defensive sector and the opposite of the consumer discretionary sector. The first chart shows the broad sector view because the arrow at the top is pointing down. Click this arrow to move up or down a level in the MarketCarpet. Chartists Read More 

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Mavenir Systems (MVNR) Makes 6 Month Highs On Big Volume

by Greg Schnell

Mavenir Systems (MVNR) announced an acquisition today. The volume absolutely soared on the stock and the price broke to new highs. With the huge intra day range on the stock, it also mirrored the huge volatility of the day in the market. Mavenir IPO'd in November 2014. After a quick run up, the stock pulled back exactly 50%. While the big pullback was taking place, the Accumulation Indicator rose throughout. With today's breakout to new highs and a pullback to end the day, this looks interesting here. The OBV has shown rising lows and a ceiling on the highs, but that would probably Read More 

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Sector PerfChart Shows A Defensive Start to 2015

by Arthur Hill

The sector PerfChart shows year-to-date performance for the nine sector SPDRs and SPY. Three sectors are up, six are down and SPY is down fractionally. The HealthCare SPDR (XLV) was the second best performing sector in 2014 and it is the best performing sector so far this year. The Energy SPDR (XLE) was the worst performing sector in 2014 and is off to a bad start in 2015. Also notice that the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) and Finance SPDR (XLF) are off to bad starts because they are both down more than SPY.  Read More 

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Are The Railways Getting Derailed?

by Greg Schnell

One of the great additions to StockCharts in 2014 was the RRG Charts. They help us visualize an entire group of stocks relative to the $SPX or whatever indicator you choose to compare to. When everything is pointing to the top right, the industry group is in an uptrend. By pointing to the southwest, this is a problem. It currently shows all of the railroads getting weak as a group. With 6 of the 12 firmly in the weakest quartile, it is important for investors to be cautious with the group. CSX reports January 14th, 2015 which is next week. Here is a link to the Read More 

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Microsoft Forms Second Candlestick Reversal in Four Weeks

by Arthur Hill

Microsoft (MSFT) sprang to life with a harami on Tuesday-Wednesday and a gap up on Thursday. This gap confirmed the harami and should be considered bullish as long as it holds. A move back below 46 would fill the gap and negate this reversal. Note that the long-term trend is up as MSFT hit a new high in mid November. Furthermore, the harami-reversal formed just above the prior candlestick reversal, which was a piercing pattern and gap.  Read More 

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The Real Estate Industry Group Starts To Out Perform The S&P 500

by Greg Schnell

The Real Estate industry group ($DJUSRE) has been running up in tandem with the S&P 500 ($SPX).  However, since the first of the year it has started to outperform the $SPX. This past week has seen the REITs and property managers moving up.   You can use the Sector Summary tool, found under the little market chart on the home page, on what I like to call the Golden line. The nine sectors show up, click to drill into the financials, clicking on Real Estate related industry groups after that. Examples are $DJUSRL, $DJUSRN. $DJUSIO, $DJUSSR Read More 

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SCTR Surges for Molson Coors

by Arthur Hill

StockCharts users can view the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) tables on the home page and even focus on the big movers by clicking the "top up" tab. I noticed Molson Coors (TAP) with a big move and interesting chart. The stock, which is part of the consumer staples sector, is attempting to break above the upper line of a Raff Regression Channel. Notice that the SCTR turned up this year and broke above 60 today.  Read More 

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The Rails Are At A Very Important Junction

by Greg Schnell

I have been watching the rails as an industry that has business cycles. Even 20 years ago, the rails were very cyclical. With the volume of oil slowing dramatically after everyone has ordered rail tankers this looks problematic. Western Canada Select Crude dropped below $30 this morning. All of the crude moving on rails will quickly slow if that price remains for long. That is a background premise, but look at the chart. After a surge above the one year trend line in November 2014, the rails made a substantially lower high in late December. This surge above the Read More 

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Ultra-Short-Term Initiation Impulses

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint ultra-short-term indicator suite consists of the Climactic Volume Indicator (CVI), Participation Index (PI) and Net Breadth Indicators. This indicator set exploded with very negative climactic readings today. When we see these "spikes" or "climaxes", we try to determine whether they are initiation or exhaustion climaxes. Based on the shape, the price action preceding the readings and historic data, we can make a hypothesis. I've annotated vertical lines so that you can see when these extreme readings were 'initiation impulses'. Basically, when they arrived, the Read More 

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Home Construction and Retail Finish the Year Strong

by Arthur Hill

The S&P 500 took a dip on the last trading day of 2014, but several home construction and retail stocks bucked the selling pressure. Chartists can easily separate the winners and losers using the Sector Market Carpet. The image below focuses on the cyclicals (consumer discretionary) sector and we can see plenty of green (advances) for December 31st. DHI, LEN, PHM and PVH were up within home construction, while JWM, M and KSS were up within the retail group. Click here for MarketCarpet instructions.  Read More