Don't Ignore This Chart

Correlation between Stocks and Bonds Turns Positive

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Stocks and bonds are both having a good year with the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) up 11.91% year-to-date and the 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (TLT) rising 6.53% since January. The advance in SPY has been much steadier than the choppy advance in TLT, but both sport nice gains so far in 2017. This is a bit unusual because bonds are normally considered safe-havens that benefit in a risk-off environment. Stocks, in contrast, are risky assets that benefit in a risk-on environment. The indicator window shows the Correlation Coefficient (SPY,TLT) turning positive in June and staying positive most of the last two months. It is an unusual situation, but we should keep an open mind and stay bullish on the price charts until there is evidence of a trend change. SPY has key support in the 240-241 area and TLT has key support in the 122-123 area. 

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--Arthur Hill CMT

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Arthur Hill
About the author: , CMT, is a Senior Technical Analyst at StockCharts.com. He has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities magazine. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed technician. In addition to his CMT designation, Arthur holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London. Learn More
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