Don't Ignore This Chart

Aflac (AFL) Quacks Out A New High - Members Dashboard Tip

Some commercials are more memorable than others. As soon as we are reminded of the word Aflac, we immediately think of the white duck in a bizarre situation screaming AFLAC ! Without question, the commercials work for brand recognition. However, today the Aflac stock broke out to a new 52-week high from a nice consolidation. 

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Industrials SPDR Becomes Oversold and Finds Support

The Industrials SPDR (XLI) is at an interesting juncture because the long-term trend is up and it is testing the January breakout. After hitting a 52-week high in February, the ETF fell back to the breakout zone in the 63.50 area and firmed with a long white candlestick four weeks ago. Broken resistance is turning into support as StochRSI becomes short-term oversold. Look for a breakout at 66 to end this correction and signal a resumption of the bigger uptrend. 

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Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!
--Arthur Hill CMT

Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan
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Wal-Mart (WMT) Hints At New 52 Week Highs - Search Tip

Wal-Mart (WMT) started ringing all kinds of alarm bells this week. Let's look at the chart, and then in the educational segment, I'll show some of the technical signals that Wal-Mart is marking.

Wal-Mart's SCTR has been rising recently. The price is trying to break out to new 52-week highs. This makes Wal-Mart interesting. The relative strength trend line broke in late February. The daily MACD moved up above the zero line. So I would always like a chart pattern like this.

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Utilities Surge as 10-yr T-Yield Drops below 2.3%

The Utilities SPDR (XLU) surged as the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day SMA on Wednesday. Overall, notice that the 50-day EMA crossed the 200-day EMA in mid December and the ETF hit a 52-week high in late March. XLU is the strongest of the nine sectors since November 30th (+12.84%) and it is even up more than XLK (+11.61%). On the price chart, it looks like XLU is breaking out of a pennant formation. The March-April lows are used to set support in the 50-50.50 area. 

Chartists looking for a reason can point to the 10-yr T-Yield ($TNX), which dipped below 2.3% for the first time this year. The indicator window shows the Correlation Coefficient ($TNX, XLU) in negative territory since the early part of January. This means they move in opposite directions. Expect utilities to continue higher as long as the 10-yr yield moves lower. 

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Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!
--Arthur Hill CMT

Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan
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StockCharts Adds A Webinar Tab ! MTA Review

Arthur Hill, Julius De Kempenaer and Greg Schnell all attended the Market Technicians Association meeting in NYC last week. With hours of presentations going on in multiple rooms it was very clear that technicians offer lots of variety and unique methods of covering the market.

The RRG charts available on StockCharts.com were in multiple presentations and were also included in one of the biggest online technical presentations in years. There are so many outstanding analysts that attend and share their work, it is exciting to see the variety of diverse market views.

I attended as many presentations as possible. Katie Stockton is on CNBC regularly and she shared her slides of the US market. Katie was full on bullish!

Robin Carpenter of CarpenterAnalytix.com presented some very unique SKEW data that was enlightening. Watching Robin's presentation was a firehose in statistical analysis. He presented three concepts and worked very hard to simplify the concepts, but he could go 7 layers deep on any slice of the concept. Very interesting presentation. Here is one of the charts he provided. Without getting into his one hour presentation, look at how close signals below zero on his CSQ Skew Deviation coincided with market pullbacks and how close to the top the signals were. In this case, he was suggesting to be careful.

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General Electric Finds Support, but Remains Short of a Breakout

It has been a rough year for General Electric (GE) because the stock is down around 4% and underperforming the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY), which is up around 6% this year. Despite relative weakness, momentum is improving as MACD edges into positive territory and the stock is bouncing off support. Notice that broken resistance and the 61.8% retracement zone turned into support as the stock bounced in early February. GE tested this level again in late March and bounced over the last two weeks. This is encouraging price action, but the stock remains below its first resistance hurdle. Look for a break above the red resistance zone (30.25-30.50) to show a significant increase in buying pressure. Such a move would turn this chart bullish and argue for further strength to the low 30s.

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Thanks for tuning in and have a great day!
--Arthur Hill CMT

Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan
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Omeros Corp (OMER) Finds A New High

Omeros (OMER) has been weak for the last two years. In the last week, it surged to new 52-week highs and kept adding to it this week. The SCTR shows the stock as a weak performer for the last two years which suggests avoidance. But the trend appears to be changing with the first new 52-week high seen in years and the stock is becoming one of the top performers based on price action.

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Charter Forms The Right Side Of A Cup

Charter Communications (CHTR) extended its multi-year uptrend in late January with a heavy volume gap higher.  CHTR spent the next several weeks consolidating and unwinding very overbought conditions.  But the stock began to resume its prior strength after its RSI touched the 40s (black arrow below) and its MACD hit centerline support.  Check out the chart:

CHTR looks solid in this potential bullish cup with handle continuation pattern.  It simply needs a handle to form, preferably on lighter volume down to test its rising 20 day EMA.  CHTR has been a very solid relative performer vs. the benchmark S&P 500.  Given the bullish pattern in play, I'd expect to see that strong relative performance continue.

Happy trading!

Tom

Ares Capital Corp (ARCC) Continues To Climb With A Strong Dividend

Ares Capital Corp (ARCC) has a beautiful chart and this week's price action suggests this trend should continue. After consolidating sideways, the chart continued its upward ascent out of the trading range.

The MACD had pulled back to the centre line and turned back up today. One thing to notice is the dividend yield is a healthy 8.65 %. Focusing in on strong stocks with a large dividend makes this a nice find.

Good trading,
Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA