Don't Ignore This Chart

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About this blog: The blog contains daily articles with intriguing or unusual charts selected by one of our Senior Technical Analysts, along with a short explanation of what exactly caught their attention and why they believe the chart is worth noting.

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Don't Ignore This Chart

Semis Send a Message to the Market

by Arthur Hill

Chips are leading the market again as the broad-based Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) broke out of a triangle consolidation and hit a new high. A new high in this cyclical group is positive for the technology sector, the Nasdaq and the broader market. First note that XSD has 34 components and they are relatively equally weighted. AMD, which as a market cap of $24 billion, is the largest holding (5.23%) and Intel (2.77%), market cap $224 billion, is not even in the top ten. The Semiconductor iShares (SOXX), in contrast, is weighted towards large-caps with the top ten stocks accounting for 59% of Read More 

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EEM Emerging Markets ETF Kicks Off

by Greg Schnell

The emerging markets have been falling as the US Dollar was rising. With the sudden reversal on the $USD there are some charts shaping up nicely. The EEM chart has nice positive divergence on the Full Stochastic. If the $USD continues to weaken, this trade should continue to improve. For now, its a nice breakout with a signal. A stop that gets hit below last weeks low of $42 would suggest the trade is not going to work. There have been a wide variety of new videos over the last week. Here are links to them. The Canadian Read More 

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Treasury Bond ETF Hits Major Road Block

by Arthur Hill

The unadjusted 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (_TLT) surged to resistance on Friday and backed off on Monday. The long-term trend is down and this resistance level could mark a near term top. First note that the chart shows unadjusted prices for TLT by preceding the symbol with an underscore (_TLT). This removes the monthly distributions from the price. Second, note that the long-term trend is down because the 50-day EMA is below the 200-day EMA and price hit a 52-week low in May. On the price chart, TLT hit resistance in the 122-123 area in late March, late May and early July Read More 

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ING Bank Looks Ready To Pop Here

by Greg Schnell

ING Bank has seen some large volume surges in the last two months suggesting the potential for some capitulation low. On the MACD we can see a positive divergence in momentum. The relative strength is obviously very weak as is the SCTR ranking.  The weekly chart also has some nice information. We can see the two volume pillars are the largest in 5 years! Recently the full stochastic tried to move above 20 and pulled back but so far has a higher low. This positive divergence is worth keeping an eye on especially in light of the volume spike. The PPO and the Relative Strength both Read More 

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Hibbett Sports (HIBB) Breaks Through To New Highs

by Greg Schnell

This little sporting company, Hibbett Sports (HIBB) sports an average of 600,000 shares a day. It has struggled in a wide range between $22 - $29 for a good six months. Today it forged a new intraday high and a new closing high. This run up has been sharp. I might expect it to pause after breaking out and pull back. The pullback would be a better time to catch it with a tight stop. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA Read More 

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Semiconductor ETF Forges a 4 Candlestick Reversal

by Arthur Hill

The Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) has been locked in a trading range the last few months, but the big trend is still up and a recent candlestick reversal could signal the start of an extended advance. It is important to keep perspective, even when looking at a short-term pattern. In the case of SOXX, keep in mind that the ETF was up around 172% from September 2016 to March 2018 and hit a 52-week high in March. This is a massive move and the ETF is entitled to a rest after such an advance. I think the long-term trend is still up because the 50-day EMA is above the Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

TEVA Breaks Out

by Greg Schnell

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) pushed to new highs and looks good to correlate with Arthur Hills article yesterday of Healthcare leading. Lots of nice things on this chart but the breakout is the best signal. I wouldn't let it breach the 10-week moving average on the downside. The PPO is making a turn up while above zero which is particularly bullish. It's a good week to pay attention to the broader industries as the $SPX tests the prior high. Be a little more cautious if the breakout fails to hold over the next few days. Good trading Read More 

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Healthcare Sector Takes the Lead

by Arthur Hill

The Health Care SPDR (XLV) moved into the sector lead with a 52-week high this week. As far as the charts are concern, the Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) and XLV are the only two sector SPDRs hitting fresh highs. XLV gets the edge because it is up around 11% year-to-date, while XLRE is up around 5%. The chart below shows three different versions of the healthcare sector. The EW Healthcare ETF (RYH) is in the top window, the SmallCap HealthCare ETF (PSCH) is in the middle window and the large-cap dominated SPDR (XLV) is in the middle window. The small-cap and large-cap sector ETFs hit new highs Read More 

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Wait For A Few Signals On Metals

by Greg Schnell

I am in Ketchican, Alaska this morning. The sunrise is a glow as the sky is low, light rain is falling and a morning fog has enveloped the town. This town is charming and is known for it's salmon fishing which brings an abundance of revenue when the salmon are here.  There are a lot of similarities to the commodities markets right now. The charts are all gloomy and pointing down, and commodity traders want to buy the lows knowing there will be another run someday in the markets. As a technical trader, the right thing for me to do is to wait for some signals to start Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Throwback Thursday for Cerner

by Arthur Hill

Cerner (CERN) remains in a long-term downtrend, but the stock broke a resistance level and pulled back to this breakout zone, which now turns into support. This is called a throwback and it could offer a second chance to partake in the breakout. First and foremost, CERN is in the early stages of a long-term trend reversal, at best. The long-term trend is still down because the 50-day EMA remains below the 200-day EMA (PPO is negative). However, the stock did exceed the May-July highs and the 200-day SMA. The breakout zone and the 200-day SMA could offer support on Read More 

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