RRG Charts

Will Technology (XLK) continue to lead the market higher?

The Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors shows four sectors with rotational patterns that catch the eye and deserve a further investigation.

Inside the lagging quadrant, these are Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) and inside the leading quadrant, I am looking at Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY).

The balance of power on the RRG above is shifted to the leading quadrant. Five of the ten sector-ETFs on the RRG are positioned inside the leading quadrant (XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY, and XLK) with one inside the improving quadrant (XLRE). No sectors are currently found in the weakening quadrant, and four are inside the lagging quadrant (XLE, XLF, XLB, and XLI).

An interesting observation that can be made from this RRG is the clustering of eight sectors, all but XLE and XLF, in the top-right area and two that are more or less "detached" in and towards the bottom-left.

A quick take from such a rotation is that by simply avoiding the Energy and the Financials sector a portfolio manager already has a very good chance of outperforming the S&P 500. In this case, the situation is even more pronounced because of the fact that XLE and XLF are much further away from the center (benchmark) of the chart than the other sectors which are much more positioned around and closer to, the benchmark.

 

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Tech stocks inside $INDU looking good on RRG but avoid IBM and financials.

The Relative Rotation Graph for the 30 DJ Industrials (INDU) stocks once again presents us with some interesting insights.

From the picture above we can read that AAPL is still the strongest stock in this universe with the highest JdK RS-Ratio reading and still inside the leading quadrant. Inside the leading quadrant, but more towards the center of the chart, we find a cluster of stocks that deserve a closer look as they may hold good upward (relative) potential.

Within the top-left, improving, quadrant KO and INTC are on track towards leading at strong RRG headings (0-90 degrees). WMT has just started to curl down which is why I have not included it.

The weak stocks which should be avoided, are more pronounced. These are AXP and JPM still inside the weakening quadrant and IBM and GS already inside the lagging quadrant.

 

Continue reading "Tech stocks inside $INDU looking good on RRG but avoid IBM and financials." »

No asset class in leading quadrant on RRG but SPY still strongest!

The Relative Rotation Graph for asset classes shows that not a single category is inside the leading quadrant at the moment and only one asset class, equities (SPY), is on the right-hand side of the plot.

The quick take from this reading is that only SPY, asset class equities, is in a relative uptrend against VBINX but losing momentum, hence positioned inside the weakening quadrant. The good news is that the distance from its current position to the 100-level on the Jdk RS-Ratio axis is still big enough to possible turn back up into the leading quadrant without crossing over into lagging.

A somewhat similar rotational pattern is seen inside the improving quadrant for IEF, Government bonds, and LQD, Corporate bonds. They are still in relative downtrends against VBINX but have been picking up some relative momentum lately. However, they are still well below the 100-level on the RS-ratio scale which means that there is still the risk for a rotation back towards the lagging quadrant, without hitting leading.

The two asset classes that stand out on this RRG are Commodities which are showing a very long tail while pushing deeper into the lagging quadrant. And Real-Estate which rotated towards the leading quadrant on a positive heading but last week seems to stall in its attempt to continue its improvement.

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Utilities (XLU) moving into leading quadrant, what are the strongest (and the weakest) stocks for this sector?

The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the stocks that, together, make up the Utilities sector index (XLU).

The keen observer may notice that there is one stock, NRG, positioned in the "gutter" of the chart. This is done on purpose as NRG is so far out to the right of the graph that it compresses all other stocks if I would include it, properly positioned, on the RRG.

I will have a look at NRG further down in this post.

The stocks inside the weakening and the lagging quadrant can fairly easily be identified. Same for improving. The leading quadrant is a bit more cluttered which makes it hard(er) to determine the individual ticker symbols. The best way to analyze an RRG like this is to click on one of the ticker symbols in the table below the chart and then "step" through the universe. This will "highlight" the selected stock while the others are dimmed so you can quickly identify the rotation of that single stock among its peers.

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Three breaks and you're out .....

This post looks at the rotation of US sectors again. The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the ETFs that track the performance of US sectors.

Pretty much immediately the attention goes out to the Energy sector (XLE) and the Financials sector (XLF) as they stand out because of the length of their tails.

Another combination worth keeping an eye on is the opposite rotation of Technology (XLK) versus Materials (XLB).

Inside the improving quadrant, we find four sectors which are all slowing down their advance on the JdK RS-Momentum scale or already declining, Real-Estate being the most prominent.

 

Continue reading "Three breaks and you're out ....." »

There are two Energy stocks inside $INDU.....

... And they both show very weak rotations on the Relative Rotation Graph of the DJ Industrials components.

XOM rotated negatively while inside the lagging quadrant and CVX just crossed over into the lowe-left part coming from weakening. These are the two names to avoid in this universe. 

They are closely followed by the stocks in the red-shaded area, VZ, INTC, and GE.

Inside the improving quadrant, there are a few names that stand out. These are V and CSCO inside the blue circle. Both show good RS-momentum and improvement on the RS-Ratio scale.

This week HD crossed over from improving to leading which makes it a stock to investigate further, but V and CSCO are also worth looking at.

In the leading quadrant, besides AAPL, which was covered in the previous RRG article on the $INDU universe, BA and DD are worth a further look as they are re-entering the leading quadrant from weakening. 

Within the weakening quadrant, financials continue to dominate, in a negative way, and they are nicely lined up for a further rotation towards lagging.

Continue reading "There are two Energy stocks inside $INDU....." »

Double divergence building up in SPY:IEF ratio and commodities need another rotation through lagging.

Summary

  • Opposite rotations for Equities and Bonds on both weekly and daily RRGs
  • Rapid weakening of commodities over past six weeks
  • Current positioning of SPY suggests some short-term weakness before resuming trend
  • IEF in consolidation pattern after breaking long-term uptrend
  • Double divergence in SPY:IEF ratio points to potential corrective move ahead
  • Commodities need to complete another full rotation before getting back in favor as an asset class again.

 

The Relative Rotation Graph above holds a set of ETFs that represent various asset classes. Using RRG to get a handle on the rotation around a balanced benchmark (VBINX) helps investors to get a handle on the relative strength of various asset classes vis-a-vis each other.

The first thing that I am looking at on the RRG above is the opposite directions for the rotations of SPY and IEF.

Continue reading "Double divergence building up in SPY:IEF ratio and commodities need another rotation through lagging." »

Bye bye NVDA, WDC, MU and Hello, ADBE, AAPL, SWKS

Summary

  • XLK only sector inside leading quadrant for S&P 500 universe
  • QCOM nosediving inside Lagging quadrant
  • NVDA rapidly losing its top position within the sector
  • WDC tracking MU lower into the weakening quadrant
  • GLW providing excellent example of stable uptrend (price and relative)
  • ADBE pushing into leading from improving
  • AAPL and SWKS rotating back into leading from weakening

 

Quick scan

The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the members of the S&P 500 Technology Index as included in the XLK sector ETF.

A few observations that can be made right from the start studying this graph. On the far right-hand side of the plot, we see three stocks, sharply, heading lower from the leading quadrant into the weakening quadrant. These are WDC, MU, and NVDA. Reading the RRG chart and looking at their position and rotational pattern we can immediately make the assumption that these three have been very strong stocks leading the sector but now losing pace. 

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Sector rotation from Energy to Utilities, market in transition

Summary

  • NO sectors inside the lagging quadrant and only one in leading
  • Sector rotation suggests market in transition
  • Financials continue to loose ground vs Healthcare
  • Technology picking up against Materials
  • Sector rotation from Energy to Utilities starting to shape up

 

Quick scan

A first look at the Relative Rotation Graph above triggers two interesting observations.

First of all, there are NO sectors inside the lagging quadrant... not even one! And there is only one (materials) inside the leading quadrant.

Secondly, the tails of the sectors in this universe (S&P 500 index) are predominantly showing vertical (momentum driven) movement. 

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