Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 20, 2018


SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78

Today the TRIN closed at 1.42 and the Ticks at -74, a bullish combination. It would have been more bullish if the Tick closed below -200, but nevertheless a bullish combination is present, suggesting a short term low could form from today to as late as two days later, which would be Friday (Thursday is Thanksgiving). Longer term studies suggests minimum upside is the 2980 range and over 3000 is a possible year end.

Above is another sentiment indicator, which is the National Association of Active Investment Managers.  Readings near 35 % exposure (their clients' percentage exposure in the market) has been a good indicator for intermediate-term lows. The McClellan Oscillator hit a new short-term high on November 9 of +212, suggesting an initiation of an intermediate up move. From last Monday's report: “Since 1950 the change from October low through year-end average=10.7% gain (with no losses) during mid term elections years (@theonedave). The 10.7% average from the October low would give a target near 289 on the SPY (2890 SPX).” 

XAU hasn’t done a lot since the September low, more or less trending sideways. XAU did break its June low where the Inflation/Deflation ratio matched its June low. The Inflation/Deflation ratio tends to lead the way for XAU. Back at the 2016 top, the Inflation/Deflation ratio made a lower high where XAU made a higher high, warning that a top was near (which proved to be a correct call). Now, the Inflation/Deflation ratio is matching its June low and XAU has broke to new lows, which shows a positive divergence. The Gold Commercials are short at 1823 contracts, which have marked major lows in the past. The last time the Gold Commercials had this less of a short was back at the 2001 gold bottom. Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18.

Tim Ord,
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