SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 2/12/19 at 2744.73 gain 1.36%; long 2707.89 on 2-8-19.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78
We have updated this chart (which is the VIX) from yesterday. SPY is in an uptrend when VIX is < +16 and in a down trend when VIX is >+16; the close today was +14.77. SPY is running into resistance near the 280 level, which is the November and December 2018 highs, but is not backing away from those highs, suggesting that the market may “eat” through this resistance. Next week is Option Expiration week, which normally has a bullish bias, and the week before (i.e. this week) can produce short-term whipsaws. The VIX trades opposite to SPY. The VIX has made lower lows below the November and December highs, suggesting that, at some point, the SPY will break above the November and December highs (280 SPY range). Seasonality shows that the market could be still until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, after which it turns bullish into month-end. A bullish setup could be triggered in the coming days.
SPX is running into resistance at the November/December highs near the 2800 level. The 2800 SPX level is not producing negative TICK readings (which would be a bearish sign) but staying positive. The 100-hour moving average remains above “0,” closing at +47.56 (top window). The 30-hour TICK (bottom window) remains above “0,” closing at +64.34 and actually gaining ground. The next window up is the hourly cumulative TICK, which remains in an uptrend and bullish. So far, these three different configurations of the TICK show a bullish bias for the SPX. For a bullish setup, we would like to see a rising TRIN reading to add power to the next rally, which could develop in the coming days. Not showing a clear signal here, but the TICK and VIX readings are showing a bullish bias.
The top window is the 10-day average of the Bullish Percent Index for the Gold Miners Index. The Bullish Percent index measures the percent of stocks that are on Point & Figure buy signals in an index - in this case, it’s the Gold Miners index. We have drawn red vertical lines where the 10-day average of the Bullish percent Index exceeded 40% (the current reading is 44.78%), which represents an up-trending market. As long as the 10-day average of the Bullish Percent index stays above 40%, the uptrend in the Gold Miners Index should continue. Signals in the past could last a year or longer. Yesterday the Bullish Percent Index for the Gold Miners index Increased to 46.15%, up from 44.44% last week, showing that this index is getting stronger. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.