SPX Monitoring purposes: Neutral
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%.
We don’t have it shown, but the “3-day average of the Equity Put/Call ratio” stands at .76 and in bullish levels. The “3-day average Equity Put/Call” carries more importance than the 1-day average and suggests a low in the market is near. The second window up from the bottom is the SPY/VIX ratio. When this ratio is rising, then SPY is outperforming VIX, which is usually what happens in a market rally and vice versa. As you can see, the “Vice Versa” is in control, suggesting decline may continue short-term. We have panic in the TRIN today with a close of 1.50 and would like to see Tick reach near -300 shortly for a bullish setup.
Above is the weekly SPX. We have drawn a trend line off the highs of November-December 2018, which comes in near the 2800 SPX range. Panic in the Tick and TRIN usually appear near support zones and the 2800 level is potential support zone. Today’s TRIN closed at 1.50, which is at panic levels; however, the Tick closed at +343, not at panic levels. Both TRIN and Tick need to reach panic levels with in a day or so to signal a bottom, though the signal could be a day or two early. Once a bullish signal is triggered, the market should see a worthwhile rally.
We showed this chart in the past, which is the daily Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index. The Bullish Percent index measures the percent of stocks that are on Point & Figure buy signals. It has been a reliable buy signal when the RSI for the Bullish Percent Index falls below 10% (current reading is 3.32%). Going back to 2009, the RSI for the Bullish Percent index fell below 10% eight times (marked with blue horizontal lines) and seven marked intermediate-term lows for an 87.5% success rate. The one failure came in 2013 on a steep GDX decline. We went back and marked with blue circles the times when a bullish crossover for the monthly 5, 9, 11 moving average occurred on GDX (which one was triggered in January 2019). There was a bearish crossover on the monthly 5, 9, 11 moving average in 2013 right before the RSI hit below 10% on the daily Bullish Percent Index. Since the monthly rule the weekly and daily charts, one would have not took the daily RSI setup in 2013. Our point is that the monthly 5, 9, 11 moving average gave a bullish crossover in January 2019 and we don’t expect a failure here on the daily RSI below 10% on the Bullish Percent Index bullish setup. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.