Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 11, 2019

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SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold long SPX 6/7/19 at 2873.33= gain 4.41%; long 5/31/19 & 2752.06.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold long SPX on 5/6/19 at 2932.61= gain 5.96%: 

Yesterday, we said that “This is the week before expiration week, which commonly has whipsaws, and next week is option expiration week, which normally has a bullish bias. Today marks five days up in a row, which is bearish short term but bullish longer term. When the market is up 5 days in a row, the market is higher 8 days out 93% of the time. Since this week is the week before options expiration week and the market has been up 5 days in a row, the odds are that a pullback will start tomorrow. The pattern that could be forming here is a “Right Shoulder” of a Head and Shoulders bottom. The next low should see panic in the Tick and TRIN to indicate support is near. The next area of support comes in near the 284 SPY range and is a place to look for panic.” This scenario is playing out. The bottom window is the 150 moving average of the 5-minute Cumulative Tick. It rises and falls with the market and, over the last couple of days, it has rolled over and produced a bearish short term sign. Watching for signs for the next bullish setup.

Second window up from the bottom is the SPY/VIX ratio. In downtrending markets, this ratio declines, while, in an uptrend, it rises. Since last Friday, this ratio has trended sideways and has not confirmed Friday and Monday’s rise in the SPY. Also notice that SPY broke below its mid-May low near 280, hitting a low near 273, while the VIX did not close above its previous mid-May high, which is a bullish divergence for the SPY. This condition suggests the SPY may hit a new high above the May high of 295 once this potential consolidation is completed. Sold long SPX 6/7/19 at 2873.33= gain 4.41%; long 5/31/19 & 2752.06.

Monthly GLD is eating through the "Price by Volume" levels of 120 to 130 and, once through, should become strong support. A four or greater monthly rise in GLD happen in uptrends. The monthly GLD rose each month from October to January 2019. The monthly RSI for GLD stands at 57; readings above 50 show the market is in an uptrend. The neckline of a potential Head and Shoulders bottom for GLD lies near 128 and will need a "Sign of Strength" to confirm the breakout of the Neckline and why Gold may get stronger near-term. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.

Tim Ord,
Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.

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