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September 2005

ChartWatchers

FEAR CREEPS IN

by Chip Anderson

Fear is creeping into the market as the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) forms a higher low. And you thought the VIX was dead! Well, actually, it is pretty dead as volatility slows to a crawl. The VIX has been spot-on when it comes to calling market risk (volatility). The S&P 500 recorded a four year high in early August and the VIX recorded a 10 year low. The S&P 500 has gone nowhere since December 2004 and the VIX declined from 15% to 10%. This simply confirms the dullness of the current market environment. As the red carets show, it is lower low after lower low for the last Read More 

ChartWatchers

NEW HIGHS AND NEW LOWS SIGNAL CAUTION

by Chip Anderson

Since the beginning of July, 52-week new highs have been contracting with each new NYSE Composite price high, demonstrating that fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the rally. Contracting new highs by themselves are not always problematic, and can merely be a sign of an approaching correction in an ongoing bull market; however, when they are accompanied by expanding 52-week new lows, a darker picture begins to emerge. You will note that spikes in the number of new lows usually occur at the end of corrections, giving notice that the correction is near an end. Unfortunately, the Read More 

ChartWatchers

SHORT POSITIONS IN LONG-END BOND

by Chip Anderson

With both Hurricane Katrina and Rita now in the history books, local, state and federal government to issue more debt will need to issue debt for reconstruction efforts and so forth. This bearish fundamental coupled with the yield curve not inverting any longer suggest the risk-reward of short positions in the long-end bond is quite good. From a technical perspective, we want to keep it simple. We note that TLT as it is forming a bearish "double top" and further resides right upon its bull market trendline. We expect lower prices to be confirmed on a breakdown through $91.25 level, with Read More 

ChartWatchers

HELP FOR HURRICANE VICTIMS

by Chip Anderson

- If you are a victim of either of the gulf coast hurricanes and have been unable to access your StockCharts.com account since the storms hit, please let us know and we will credit your account for the time you have been away from the Internet. In addition, for every new subscription or renewal we receive during the months of September and October, StockCharts.com will donate $5 to Hurricane Relief efforts! We urge you to contribute directly as well. BOOKSTORE - We have added a number of new books to our store.  Take a Look Read More 

ChartWatchers

OIL MAY BE FORMING SHORT-TERM TOP ...

by Chip Anderson

Today's selloff in oil of more than two dollars may be completing a right shoulder in a short-term head and shoulders top in the key commodity. The September bounce has fallen well short of the late-August peak (the head) and is about equal to the early August peak (left shoulder). It's now challenging its 50-day average and may be headed for a test of the neckline near 62.50. A close beneath that support line would turn the short-term trend down. That would weaken energy stocks even further. I'm not suggesting that the long-term bull market in energy is over. I am suggesting that it's Read More 

ChartWatchers

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!

by Chip Anderson

  Forces of nature have conspired to prevent the stock market from rising significantly since our last visit, however the markets have showed suprising strength considering the impact on the US economy that these storms are having. The storms are also on the minds of our regular columnists. John Murphy reviews their impact on oil prices, Richard Rhodes looks at the debt implications, Carl Swenlin looks at market beadth indicators, and Arthur Hill sees new life in the $VIX. Let's get to it Read More 

ChartWatchers

TRANSPORTS LAG INDUSTRIALS

by Chip Anderson

Dow Theory stipulates that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports should confirm each other to validate weakness or strength. Most recently, both Averages recorded new reaction highs in late July (green arrows) and this provided a Dow Theory confirmation of strength. Both Averages corrected in August, but only one surged in September. The Dow Transports formed a falling flag correction in August. The only problem, for the bulls at least, was the inability of the Average to break the fall, exceed resistance at 3706 and signal a continuation higher. The flag just kept on falling and the Read More 

ChartWatchers

GOLD STOCKS APPROACHING RESISTANCE, POSSIBLE BREAKOUT

by Chip Anderson

The May low for the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) provided us with the second data point necessary to establish the bottom of a trading range that is about two years old. The XAU is now approaching the top of the range, and we can expect that the current advance will stall when that overhead resistance is reached. Trading ranges are also called continuation patterns. This is because they are formed when the trend of a price index pauses to consolidate before the trend continues. Since the XAU trend was rising before the consolidation began, we should expect the trend of the Read More 

ChartWatchers

EFFECTS OF KATRINA

by Chip Anderson

With the passing of Hurricane Katrina, we want to hone our focus in upon the TLT:SPY ratio relationship. This is simply due to the enormous amount of local, state and federal debt issuance that will materialize due to the substantial nature cost of clean-up and reconstruction efforts of the Gulf Coast area. Also, there are concerns about the inflationary prospects for many building materials. So from a fundamental point-of-view we want to be a seller of bonds as we believe issuance/inflationary concerns will outweigh all economic weakness concerns. The TLT:SPY ratio seems to bear this Read More 

ChartWatchers

NEW BOOK FROM STOCKCHARTS' OWN GREG MORRIS!

by Chip Anderson

- Now is your chance to pre-order Greg Morris' new book, "The Complete Guide to Market Breath Indicators". This completely new book is a compilation of all the major (and most of the minor) market breadth indicators that are in use today. Be the first on your block to own this new classic. Click here for more info. IT'S A GAS, GAS, GAS! - We were able to add a new dataset to our system last week - Gasoline. The symbol is $GASO and, like all of our other commodity-based indices, it is an End-of-Day index that represents the fictional "continuous" contract for unleaded gasoline as traded Read More 

ChartWatchers

FRIDAY BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW ...

by Chip Anderson

Some of you may have watched my 7:10 am interview on Bloomberg TV Friday. I discussed the upside breakout in the healthcare sector that I wrote about earlier in the week. For those of you who missed it, however, I'd like to show the same charts that we used on the air to make my point more clearly about the activity within the healthcare group itself. The chart below shows the Health Care Select SPDR (XLV) closing above its early 2004 peak this week to achieve a bullish breakout. [It's now challenging its 2000 peak]. The rising relative strength line since the end of 2004 shows that Read More 

ChartWatchers

Hello Fellow ChartWatchers!

by Chip Anderson

At the end of August, a very promising thing happened on the Dow Jones Industrials chart. Did you see it? Last Thursday the index reversed around the 10,350 level. That confirmed the intermediate term uptrend (blue line) that goes back to the 10,000 low from last April. During this uptrend there have been two cycles between the three troughs - those peaks are clearly shown on the Chaikin Money Flow graph (blue arrows). If this pattern continues, expect to see the market rise until the CMF turns lower in a couple of weeks. But watch this chart closely folks! This week's test of 10,700 is Read More