DecisionPoint

May 2015

DecisionPoint

SPY: Negative Divergences Persist

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I pointed out in my article that the SPY price chart had a bearish rising wedge pattern, and that there were negative divergences on various medium-term indicator charts. This week we can see that the rising wedge remains intact, but the expectation is that it will resolve to the downside. We can also see the persistent negative divergences on another set of indicators--the percentage of stocks above their 20EMA, 50EMA, and 200EMA. This set of indicators give us a look at short- ,medium-, and longer-term internals. And, while the market remains near all-time highs, the indicators Read More 

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What Does the Seasonality Tool Say About "Sell in May, Go Away"?

by Erin Swenlin

Everyone is bandying around the term, "Sell in May, Go Away". But how true is it? Given we are seeing bearish patterns on the SPY, overhead resistance has held on strongly, long-term indicators are bearish and it's the end of May; it makes sense that the phrase is popular right now. Tom McClellan talked about this phrase in his last "McClellan Report". He did some trend research on Google searches on that phrase which showed there was more interest than normal in the phrase this year. Fortunately on StockCharts.com we have the Seasonality Tool to test the hypothesis. You'll find the Read More 

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Check Out the NEW DP Scoreboard in the DP Chart Gallery!

by Erin Swenlin

We gave our webinar viewers a sneak peek at the new scoreboard and now it is LIVE! A picture of the SPX scoreboard is below: For members, there is a drop-down menu on the side where you can switch between the NDX, OEX and DJIA. You'll find the date that the signal changed below the directional arrow. But what do they mean exactly? DecisionPoint has two "signal generators", the Trend Model and the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO). The Trend Model measures what is happening with price trends as the name suggests. The first part of the DecisionPoint analysis approach Read More 

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SPY Rising Wedge Implies Correction

by Carl Swenlin

One of the things I have regularly stressed is the reliability of rising wedge formations, meaning that they have a high likelihood of breaking down. Currently, SPY has a pronounced rising wedge that has been forming over the last six months or so, as seen on the chart below. The mechanics of the wedge are simple: The steepest line, always the bottom of the wedge, is considered to be the most likely to fail because their steepness makes the line more difficult to maintain.   In addition to the rising wedge formation, which is bearish, there are negative Read More 

DecisionPoint

Small Caps Get On Board with PMO BUY Signals

by Erin Swenlin

I noticed today in the DP Reports paid blog that IJR, the S&P 600 ETF, generated a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal on the DecisionPoint Market/Sector Summary Report. So I followed the rabbit down the hole and decided to check the iShares Russell 2000 ETF, IWM and found that it too had generated a PMO BUY signal. Next stop? The DecisionPoint Trend & Condition ChartPack for the S&P 600 to investigate DecisionPoint indicators that might enlighten us further. I found the McClellan Summation Index most interesting. You Read More 

DecisionPoint

Trend Model Signals Now In DP Tracker Spreadsheets

by Carl Swenlin

Recently StockCharts.com stopped publishing the DecisionPoint Tracker reports, but links to the Tracker Chart Books and Spreadsheets are still available in the DP Reports Blog. The Tracker Spreadsheets provide the same information as the old reports, but it is in a much more compact format. Additionally, we have added tracking of DP Trend Model signals, which were not part of the old text reports. What are Trackers? They provide extensive, concentrated data to help you 'track' specific lists of stocks, such as the S&P 100, the Nasdaq 100, Dow 65, etc. Below is a picture of the DP Read More 

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Five Blogs I Subscribe to that You Should Too!

by Erin Swenlin

Don't get me wrong, EVERY blog on StockCharts.com is brilliant, but when my time is limited, there are five blogs that I make a point NEVER to miss! How can I make sure that I know right away when those blogs contain a new article? I click on the email updates button in the upper right-hand corner of the blog I want to subscribe to. When I do this, a slick email arrives in my email box (actually I even have a separate mailbox that they are sorted into to make it even easier to see when there's a new post) with the title and a link that will take me directly there. To the left is a Read More 

DecisionPoint

Announcing the NEW DecisionPoint Alert Blog!

by Erin Swenlin

Back by popular demand and reinvented, the DP Daily Market Updates will return in the NEW "DecisionPoint Alert Blog". The free "DecisionPoint" Blog will continue as before with feature articles by both me and Carl. The new content-rich "DecisionPoint Alert" blog will only be available to paying members. The DecisionPoint LIVE! Webinar will move to its new time slot on Wednesdays at 7pm Eastern where you can join me "after hours" for a more in-depth look at the latest DP indicators and timing signals. The DP Reports blog will be getting a makeover and the DP Read More 

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Short-Term Signal Aggregate Flashing Strong Warning

by Carl Swenlin

One of the charts we like to review from time to time is the Mechanical Signal Analysis chart. It shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks on PMO crossover BUY signals (short-term), and the Percent Buy Index (PBI), which shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that are on Price Momentum Model BUY signals (medium-term). A couple of months ago we pointed out the negative divergences on both charts, and as of now those divergences have gotten more pronounced. The percent of PMO BUY signals index divergence is especially severe, currently reading 37% while the market is pushing new Read More 

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DP Market Update: All-Time Highs Prove Difficult to Achieve - May 5, 2015

by Erin Swenlin

Price snapped back toward the Friday low today. It appeared at the end of the day it might break out from the descending wedge. It's a bullish formation so that is the expectation. A wedge tells us the direction to expect a move. Unfortunately, it doesn't tells us when or how long/large the move will be, but remember, this is a 10-minute bar chart, so we are talking ultra-short term.. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market Read More 

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BUY, Neutral, SELL -- Trading the PMO -- What Are Trend Model Signals Good For?

by Carl Swenlin

During our last webinar we received questions and comments to which we were unable to respond due to time constraints, so we will take this opportunity to address some of the ones deemed to have broad interest. Q: Please review the definitions of Buy, Neutral, and Sell signals. A: First let me emphasize that the signals generated by the various timing models are intended as information flags, not action commands. They let us know that certain conditions have been met, and that we should look at the chart to see if any action is appropriate. Definitions are: Read More