DecisionPoint

November 2017

DecisionPoint

Dow Logs New PMO BUY Signal - UUP Triggers an IT Trend Model SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Two important signal changes arrived today that you need to know about. First, the Dow Industrials triggered a new ST PMO BUY signal. Talk about a bifurcated market, the NDX gets a PMO SELL signal yesterday and today the Dow continues its parabolic rise and logs a BUY signal. The second signal is the new IT Trend Model SELL signal on the Dollar (UUP). After reviewing UUP in yesterday's DP Alert, I did warn everyone that this was coming.  Here's a look at the Dow's new PMO BUY signal. I wasn't exaggerating about a parabolic move on the industrials. I always get Read More 

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DP Alert: PMO SELL Signal on NDX - SPX Indicators Very Bullish

by Erin Swenlin

Technology fell apart today as money appeared to be rotating out of technology and into financials which had a brilliant day. The PMO was yanked down below its signal line on the NDX. Yesterday, the PMO was rising and price looked strong. What a difference a day can make. Meanwhile, the SPX and OEX had very small declines today and the Dow actually finished up 0.44%. Support is not that far away at 6200, but the amount of money flying out of technology today has the earmarks of an initiation. High volume selling with a deep decline and a new PMO SELL Read More 

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DP Scoreboard Shake Up

by Erin Swenlin

After today's rallies and big breakouts, it shouldn't surprise anyone that the OEX and SPX finally shed their PMO SELL signals. What is interesting is the Dow's 'laggard' status on triggering a PMO BUY signal. It is the last SELL signal standing. I'll give you a peek into all four charts with my DP analysis slant. Stay tuned tomorrow for a "DP Alert" article where I'll review all of the indicators, as well as the "big four"--Dollar, Oil, Gold and Bonds. You'll note on all but the NDX chart, a clear consolidation zone that performed well to Read More 

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Wall Street Sentiment Soars Bullish - IT Indicators Bottom - TLT at a Decision Point

by Erin Swenlin

I have a few DecisionPoint charts that are "must-see" right now. Anytime I look at my ChartLists and a chart smacks me in the face, I always try to share it. Today during the MarketWatchers LIVE show, two of those charts got me and the third, Carl slid my way to make sure I saw it. Glad I did!  Carl sent me the Wall Street Sentiment Survey chart. I generally review this on the MarketWatchers LIVE show, but didn't get an opportunity with the jam packed show we recorded today. I think a quick look at this chart, even without annotations, would have popped you in the nose too! The Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: No Holiday Surprises

by Carl Swenlin

Thanks mostly to a pop on Tuesday the market once again moved to new, all-time highs. Typical of holiday trading volume was lower than average, except for Tuesday, which had a surge confirming the price advance. Positive market action on a holiday week was no surprise, considering the persistent strength of the current bull market. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. STOCKS IT Read More 

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DP Bulletin #2: Here and Gone...NDX Switches Back to PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

You know you're in trouble when you wake up and find a snarky tweet about the timeliness of a particular signal change. That was the case this morning when I got the tweet about the NDX PMO SELL signal that arrived after the market closed yesterday. Today, the PMO whipsawed and easily discarded the PMO SELL signal. I did mention that the margin was exceedingly thin and whipsaw could be a factorand still could be, for that matter.  Today's breakout to new highs certainly confirms the PMO BUY signal which was triggered when the PMO crossed above its signal Read More 

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DP BULLETIN: NDX Generates PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

As promised to the MarketWatchers LIVE viewers and my DecisionPoint Faithful, I am updating you on the latest DP Scoreboard signal change. The NDX's momentum finally deteriorated enough to generate a PMO SELL Signal. The other three indexes (SPX, OEX, INDU) triggered PMO SELL signals earlier this month. I'm noticing a small double-top formation now on the NDX. An execution would require a drop below 6240 and the expected minimum downside target would be close to support at 6100. Seeing small-caps increasing positive momentum, I'm not so sure we'll see a big drop in the NDX. The Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Incongruous Sentiment

by Carl Swenlin

When I posted the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) Exposure Index this week, I thought to myself, "What's wrong with this picture?". To clarify, rather than stay fully invested all the time, NAAIM members adjust their exposure based upon their assessment of market conditions, and exposure can be anywhere from +200% to -200%. Although, the Exposure Index has never been anywhere close to those extremes, it does, however, give a good reading of sentiment among this group of professionals. What I noticed is that NAAIM exposure has Read More 

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S&P 600 Bounces Off Support - IT Indicators Oversold

by Erin Swenlin

I had this article in the queue yesterday with the headline "S&P 600 Nearing Important Support". Well, it turned out to be a bounce off that support today. Small-caps have been hit hard while most large-cap indexes spent the last month consolidating and moving slightly lower. You could say $SML had a correction over the last month. Nice thing is that I can use the word "had" when referring to a correction on $SML. Today's rally seems to be the real deal as it not only bounced off support, but also punctured resistance at the late October lows. One thing I was going to note Read More 

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DP Alert: SPY Rising Trend Channel Broken - DP Indicators Bearish in ST and IT - PMO SELL on UUP

by Erin Swenlin

Since November 9th, the DP Scoreboards have been quiet. It isn't surprising to see the weakness on these Scoreboards to be short-term momentum given the recent decline. The SPY/SPX have now dropped below rising trend channels, but support remains. With DP indicators looking bearish, we could be in for more downside in both the short and intermediate terms. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors Read More 

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HALO - Angel or Devil?

by Erin Swenlin

As part of the MarketWatchers LIVE show (airs M-F, 12p-1:30p - You'll find today's recording under the "Webinars" tab), Tom Bowley and I come up with set-ups on Monday. We call the segment "Monday Set-Ups". This segment has an eye toward very short-term investments as Tom and I compete to see who had the best returns on the following Monday. I use my PMO Scan exclusively to come up with my Monday Set-Ups (you'll find the article with the scan language here). I thought today's set up was very promising for the short term, but also in the intermediate term, so I thought I would share Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Buy the Dip? What Dip?

by Carl Swenlin

I should probably watch less business news, but I only have it on to catch any big news developments, and the sound is usually off. Nevertheless, I can't avoid some stuff that I'd rather filter out. For example, there was talk on Thursday and Friday about whether investors should be "buying the dip." To clarify, the distance from Tuesday's intraday all-time high to Thursday's intraday low was -1.2%. The distance from Wednesday's all-time closing high to Thursday's close was -0.4%. In my experience, that ain't a dip, but the discussion shows how rose-colored the crowd's view has become Read More 

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DP Bulletin: NDX Only PMO BUY Signal Left - Gold PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Today's decline was enough to push the OEX and Dow PMO BUY signals off the DP Scoreboards. The NDX is still looking good with the PMO actually rising right now. However, if the other indexes continue to decline, it is very likely the NDX will follow suit. Gold received a new PMO BUY signal while price easily holds support. We're seeing breaks below rising trend channels on Dow and OEX. I've annotated areas of possible support. 23000 is a likely stopping point if it cannot hold onto the 20-EMA. Given the close was nearly within the rising trend channel, this doesn't have the Read More 

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DP Bulletin: IT Trend Model BUY Signal for Bonds (TLT)

by Erin Swenlin

As noted, a new technical alert arrived in my email inbox this afternoon. I was surprised that I didn't receive word of any DP Scoreboard PMO signal changes, but seeing TLT grab an ITTM BUY signal wasn't surprising. I think TLT is at an interesting "decision point" right now. Here's a look at the daily, weekly and monthly charts. An Intermediate-Term Trend Model BUY signal is generated when the 20-EMA crosses above the 50-EMA. The daily chart looks pretty good. The PMO is rising nicely along with the OBV and SCTR. What could be a problem is overhead resistance around $127 for TLT. A Read More 

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DecisionPoint Alert: SPX Back on PMO SELL - Oil Flourishes, Gold Support Holding Strong

by Erin Swenlin

Yes, the PMO BUY signal on the SPX has already disappeared. Unfortunately with the margin so thin between the PMO and its signal line (thousandths of a point), this likely will change again tomorrow if the SPX can close higher. What is interestingthe SPY never managed a PMO BUY Signal and it has now topped below its signal line. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold Read More 

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DP Bulletin: New PMO BUY Signal on SPX - Scoreboards All Green!

by Erin Swenlin

It's official! All four DecisionPoint Scoreboards are on BUY signals in all three timeframes on the PMO and Trend Models. Tom Bowley and I continue to discuss during the MarketWatchers LIVE show about the hurricane force bull market winds. If these Scoreboards don't convince you, I'm not sure what will. Bull market rules definitely apply right now. What does that mean? Simply put, don't worry so much about overbought conditions and expect bullish conclusions to chart patterns and support/resistance levels. This is NOT to say that we have an unending bull market or are not vulnerable to a Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Not Out of the Woods Yet

by Carl Swenlin

Of my comment, "Not out of the woods yet," you might ask, "What woods?" The market, after all, did manage to grind higher this week, so what's the problem? The problem that I see is a persistent weakness in our intermediate-term indicators, but we will get into that later. More immediately, we note that this week higher prices were accompanied by much higher than average S&P 500 volume. This could be a sign of distribution. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market Read More 

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Don't Trust the Headlines: "This Stock is Going to Soar!"

by Erin Swenlin

I know we all have seen the commercials for the newest or best investment of the decade. Now we are getting emails flooding our inboxes claiming to have an "investment of a lifetime"! I'm not saying that these are traps or always bad, but I can tell you, before you believe the amazing claims, a look at the chart is a MUST. I was recently sent a question via email with an attachment of one of these such headlines on BioHiTech Global (BHTG). I generally can't review or answer all of my emailed chart suggestions, but the headline was just "too good". I had to see this chart.  Read More 

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Short-Term Indicators Bottom Quickly - IT Indicators Still Moving Lower

by Erin Swenlin

I promised to inform you when the Swenlin Trading Oscillators bottom in a concerted move to the upside and it happened already today. I pointed out in yesterday's blog article that the Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) were now hitting oversold territory. This is exactly what we want to see--oversold indicators turning up. However, we want to also see intermediate-term indicators turning up or at least decelerating their descent and that hasn't happened, nor does it look like it will anytime soon. So what does this mean? Let's first review the STOs. I've highlighted Read More