Don't Ignore This Chart

November 2009

Don't Ignore This Chart

Silver and Gold Perfchart

by Arthur Hill

It has been a big year for gold, but an even bigger year for silver. As the Perfchart shows, $SILVER underperforms $GOLD on the way down and outperforms on the way up. Silver was down more than gold in April and July, but up more than gold in June and August. Notice that silver was already up over 5% when gold turned positive in early September. Click this chart for details Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

FTSE plunges on Dubai concerns

by Arthur Hill

The London FTSE ($FTSE) dropped over 3% on the prospects of a sovereign default from Dubai. Even with this sharp decline, the medium-term trend is up as the index recorded a new reaction high just two weeks ago. Major support is set in the 4950-5000 area. A break below this level would definitively reverse the uptrend. Click this chart for details Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Dollar weakness not helping oil

by Arthur Hill

Despite strength in stocks and weakness in the Dollar, the US Oil Fund ETF (USO) is down for the month of November. It is not much, but it is still surprising and merits attention. Strength in stocks points to strength in the economy, which should increase demand for oil. Commodities also benefit from Dollar weakness. Something is not quite right here. Click this chart for details Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Energy lagging in November

by Arthur Hill

The sector PerfChart from 30-Oct to 23-Nov shows energy as the weakest of the nine sectors. The shaded S&P 500 tab means performance is measured relative to the S&P 500. The percentage changes are not absolute, but rather over or under performance relative to the S&P 500. Consumer staples, utilities and finance are also lagging the S&P 500 in November. Click here for more on PerfCharts. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Wells Fargo shows relative weakness

by Arthur Hill

Even though the S&P 500 is up sharply over the last four weeks, Wells Fargo (WFC) is just flat and shows relative weakness. After a surge the first few days of November, WFC traded flat with a small triangle. Watch this neutral pattern for clues on the future. An upside breakout would be bullish, but a downside break would be bearish. Click this chart for details Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Healthcare showing relative strength

by Arthur Hill

The Healthcare SPDR (XLV) broke above its October high two weeks ago and continued above 30 this week. Even though stocks were weak across the board on Thursday, healthcare managed to show relative strength with a smaller loss. Eight of the nine sectors were down in early trading Friday, but healthcare was sporting a small gain and again showing relative strength. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

An island reversal in MDY

by Arthur Hill

With a gap up on Monday and a gap down on Thursday morning, the S&P 400 MidCap ETF (MDY) has an island reversal working on the 30-minute chart. There were no trades around 127.6, which creates a floating island around 128. Even though this gap is negative, MDY landed right at support from last week’s low. Further weakness would reverse the short-term uptrend. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Regions Financial Bounces off 200-day SMA

by Arthur Hill

Regions Financial (RF) is showing signs of life with a high-volume bounce off the 200-day simple moving average and a key retracement. Notice that the Sep-Nov decline retraced a Fibonacci 62% of the Jul-Sep advance. The stock firmed around 4.75 in early November and surged over the last three days.  Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

DIA enters retracement zone

by Arthur Hill

With the advance above 100, the Dow Diamonds (DIA) entered the 50-62% retracement zone. Such retracements can be measured using the Fibonacci Retracements Tool on Sharpcharts. These zones can mark resistance areas and price action merits a close watch. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Scanning the Aroon oscillator in the market carpet

by Arthur Hill

Friday’s mailbag answered questions on the Aroon oscillator, which is a trend identification indicator. Basically, a strong uptrend exists when the oscillator is above +50 and a strong downtrend exists when the oscillator is below -50. Even with the market gains of the last few weeks, I was surprised to see so many negative readings in the Aroon oscillator. The sector averages are negative for finance, energy, consumer discretionary and materials sectors.  Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

PerfChart for 10 Currency ETFs

by Arthur Hill

Year-to-date, the WT Brazilian Real Fund (BZF) and the CS Australian Dollar Trust (FXA) are by far the top performing currency ETFs. Of these 10 currency ETFs, only the DB Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) is in negative territory. Even the CS Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) climbed back into positive territory in September. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Nasdaq AD Line Is Lagging

by Arthur Hill

With the surge over the last 1-2 weeks, the NY Composite and the Nasdaq are both trading back near their October highs. However, the Nasdaq AD Line remains well below its October high and shows some relative weakness. The NYSE AD Line is also below its October highs, but still looks strong as it surged back above 12000 last week. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

A Bull Flag for Cisco

by Arthur Hill

Cisco (CSCO) led the market higher with a big move above 24 last week. While the S&P 500 continued higher the last three days, Cisco stalled with a falling flag taking shape. Bullish flags slope down and form after a sharp advance. A break above 24 would signal a continuation of last week’s advance. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Yield curve widens

by Arthur Hill

The difference between the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) and the 3-month Treasury Yield ($IRX) widened significantly since early October. Short-term rates fell ($IRX), while long-term rates rose ($TNX). As a result, the yield curve is the steepest it’s been in months. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

You know it’s a big day when...

by Arthur Hill

The 10 most active stocks on both the NYSE and Nasdaq are all up, and up big. In the middle of the stockcharts.com home page, you can follow the most actives throughout the day. You can even view a Perfchart to compare performance or see all 10 mini-charts by clicking the candleglance link. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Nvidia Bounces off Broken Resistance

by Arthur Hill

Broken resistance turns into support. This is a classis tenet of technical analysis. Nvidia (NVDA) broke resistance around 12-12.5 in July and returned to this breakout area in late October. Notice that I drew a zone. Support and resistance levels are rarely exact. With a gap and surge today, Nvidia is trying to break channel resistance. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

CCI Signals for Jones Apparel

by Arthur Hill

On the Stockcharts.com scan page for Wednesday evening, there were 20 CCI sell signals among NYSE stocks. A CCI sell signal occurs with a plunge below -100. Conversely, a CCI buy signal triggers with a surge above +100. CCI for Jones Apparel (JNY) surged above +100 on July 23rd and plunged below -100 on October 28th, four months later. There was a second dip below -100 on Wednesday to affirm the sell signal. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Merck Propels XLV Higher

by Arthur Hill

With help from component Merck, the Healthcare SPDR (XLV) bounced off support around 28. The ETF established support here with reaction lows in early September, early October and now early November. It is safe to say that the trend is clearly up as long as this support level holds. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

QQQQ Turns Indecisive at Support

by Arthur Hill

After a sharp decline the prior two weeks, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQQ) turned indecisive with a spinning top on Monday. This candlestick reflects a wide high-low range during the day, but little change from open to close. QQQQ surged above 41.5 in early trading, plunged below 40.8 in the early afternoon and then rebounded to close at 41.13. The day was a wash and the battle for support hangs in the balance. Click this chart for details. Read More 

Don't Ignore This Chart

Bonds Fall As ISM Rises

by Arthur Hill

The 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) bounced off support last week, but fell today as the ISM Manufacturing Survey surged to 55.7. Readings above 50 favor economic expansion. Bonds fell and the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) rose with this positive economic news. Signs of strength in the economy increase the chances that the Fed will raise interest rates in the future. Click this chart for details. Read More