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Royal Gold (RGLD) Tries To Make New Highs

by Greg Schnell

I fully realize how beaten down the price of Gold is. What makes this chart more interesting is that it has been climbing even well Gold has gone lower. So not only does it have technical strength relative to Gold, it is also starting to outperform the $SPX. This is shown by the rising line on the purple area chart. One other clue I like is the SCTR is moving above 75 suggesting the price action is becoming one of the top performing stocks. If this stock pushes to new highs next week, it is well set up for the move. The price is consolidating just under Read More 

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A Sale At Starbucks (SBUX)

by Greg Schnell

Have you ever had a friend say they wanted to get into a stock because it was on sale? While shoppers love the word SALE, it does not always mean value. In this case it's Starbucks. Once again, the stock fails as Howard Schultz retires. With new store openings in China at a rate above one a day, it's crazy to believe the chart could be breaking down. But it is. The RSI says it is entering a new bear market. The full stochastics don't look ready to turn higher any time soon. The PPO has just crossed below zero which suggests staying away until it can Read More 

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Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR hits Reversal Zone, but Lags Oil

by Arthur Hill

The Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR (XES) is trading near a potential reversal zone, but the ETF is not keeping pace with strength in oil. The first chart shows XES, the Light Crude Continuous Contract ($WTIC) and the Correlation Coefficient for the two. XES bounced between 13 and 19 over the past year and is currently just above the midpoint of this range. Perhaps there is a slight uptrend at work here. Performance wise, XES is up around 13% over the past year and oil is up a whopping 60%. In contrast to the weak uptrend in XES, oil is in a strong Read More 

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$NYA Chart Cracks To Start The Week

by Greg Schnell

Everyone still believes this bull market has a lot more legs. While the large-cap technology stocks dominate the weighting in the big indexes, the $NYA chart has been an important chart for timeliness for the overall picture in recent history. Even more important perhaps is the last two trend lines broke around the end of June. The chart above is a weekly chart and the week closes on Friday, not Monday. It is important to watch price action closely over the next few days. Friday also brings the End of Day, End of Week, End of Month, End of Quarter data point for the markets Read More 

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Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ, CNQ.TO) Looks Ready To Pop

by Greg Schnell

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ had a stellar Friday with a big move of 5%. However, the intriguing price level for me is right here. We can see the stock has been setting up higher lows for the last year. The push today to get back to the 40 WMA is good, but the real opportunity is getting a chance to buy the stock again at the previous breakout level.  There are a couple of other supportive clues on the chart. Whenever the SCTR goes above 30, the stock does pretty well. The Full Stochastic is trying to turn up here right at 40. When the stock turns up around 40 or 50 on the full Read More 

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Francesca's (FRAN) Finally Gets A Positive MACD

by Greg Schnell

Francesca's Holdings (FRAN) is in the ultra competitive apparel retailer industry. This chart has been a real difficult stock since it IPO'd 5 years ago. I like the nice base that it built in 2018 and has now started to break towards 52 week highs. With the SCTR moving to the 75 level I am started to be interested if it can make new 10-month highs. With the positive employment trends and the strong apparel retail industry, this looks set to participate in the industry moves. There is some nice volume starting to hit the stock in the bottom right hand corner of the chart Read More 

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Paypal Guns for a New High

by Arthur Hill

Stocks making new 52-week highs are clearly in uptrends and leading. Even though Paypal is just shy of a 52-week high, the bigger uptrend and wedge point to new highs in the near future. First and foremost, Paypal is in a long-term uptrend because the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA and the close is above the rising 200-day EMA. After hitting a new high in late January, the stock corrected with a large falling wedge into mid May. This correction was needed to work off the overbought conditions created in January. The falling wedge is a typical pattern for a correction and the Read More 

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Ross Stores Stalls after Breakout

by Arthur Hill

Ross Stores was hit hard with a high volume gap down in late May, but immediately firmed and recovered. The stock broke out of a long triangle in early June and then stalled with a small flag last week. Basically, we have two bullish continuation patterns at work.   The long-term trend is up because the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA and the stock recorded a 52-week high last Monday. With the long-term trend up, the long triangle consolidation is considered a bullish continuation pattern. The breakout, therefore, signals an end to this rest period and a resumption of the bigger Read More 

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Does JP Morgan (JPM) Repeat Last Years Performance?

by Greg Schnell

JPM has been drifting lower since March 2018. While it is still about the 40 week moving average, it is definitely not one of the stronger stocks out there. The SCTR has dropped to 40, which is near the lowest levels on the chart. While there is a topping structure on the chart, the question approaching is: Will the neckline hold? Interestingly enough, JPM had almost the identical chart pattern set up a year ago. After the stock broke below 82 in late may 2017, it started a steely surge that saw the stock move 50% in 8 months!  So what is an investor to do now? The right answer Read More 

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Rockwell Automation: A Big Correction, but an Even Bigger Advance

by Arthur Hill

Rockwell Automation reversed its downtrend with a big surge in May, worked off overbought conditions and looks poised to resume its uptrend. The chart below shows ROK with a high-volume plunge in late April, a high-volume reversal day and a sharp recovery in early May.  This recovery extended with high volume as the stock broke above the April high. The strength of this advance leads me to believe that it reversed the downtrend from January to April. Rockwell was quite overbought in late May and worked off this overbought condition with a pullback to the Read More 

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Norfolk Southern (NSC) Brakes At New Highs

by Greg Schnell

Norfolk Southern put in a weak break to new highs today. In the zoom box on the right, the candle was a nice clean break out but at the end of the day, it had fully reversed and closed lower than the open.  It did close up compared to Monday, so it will show as bullish volume, but its a little suspect.  A few things to note on the chart. The MACD is making a lower high here as the price tries to break out. Rather than suggesting NSC won't go higher, it just might need a little pullback and reset the momentum oscillators. One other clue I don't like is how deep the Read More 

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A Classic Continuation Pattern Takes Shape in Danaher

by Arthur Hill

Danaher (DHR) is a conglomerate that is the 15th largest component (1.91%) of the Health Care SPDR (XLV) and the 5th largest component (5.43%) of the Medical Devices ETF (IHI). XLV broke out last week and IHI has been leading for some time. The stock is also looking strong as an ascending triangle takes shape. The chart shows Danaher with the Percentage Price Oscillator (50,200,0) in the indicator window. This indicator measures the percentage difference between the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA. I use it to define the long-term trend and my trading bias. The PPO has been positive for over a Read More 

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Allergan (AGN) Thrusts To Fresh Three Month Highs

by Greg Schnell

Allergan put on a nice move over the last two days on news that Carl Icahn was in the stock with David Tepper. A big volume surge of 10 million shares over two days suggests more than a passing interest in this stock.  As pharmaceutical stocks seem to be enjoying renewed attention, this particular gain is big. This stock showed up on Thursday in the big movers on the home page. I covered off the home page idea generator on The Final Bar 2018-06-08 and specifically mentioned Allergan. You can see that video below.  I host a new TV show on Read More 

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McCafe Is Worth Looking At (MCD)

by Greg Schnell

McDonald's is in the process of rolling out a few new store formats. I saw one first hand in Sydney, Australia on its opening week. While there were some bugs to be worked out at the time, the format was interesting. Well, apparently it's full steam ahead with the format and the plan is to turn 1000 stores each year. The chart has been in a terrific up trend through 2017. In 2018 it has been consolidating. Well, that all changed today with a burst out of the top of the range. The break out has a nice volume bar with another full day to be added. The MACD turning up just above Read More 

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Oil Hits Potential Reversal Zone

by Arthur Hill

Oil fell rather sharply over the last two weeks, but the long-term trend is up and two technical indicators point to a bounce. The chart below shows the USO Oil Fund (USO) in the top window, RSI for USO in the middle and the Light Crude Continuous Contract ($WTIC) in the lower window. USO is fine for short-term analysis, but I prefer $WTIC for long-term analysis. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up as crude advanced from the mid 40s in June 2017 to the low 70s in May. Oil hit a 52-week high in May and remains well above its rising 200-day SMA. Read More 

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Cameco (CCJ) Breaks Out Of The Base

by Greg Schnell

Cameco has underperformed for years. About 6 months ago, Cameco started to limit Uranium supply. Now the stock looks set up to run.  The SCTR is moving back above 75 which is a sign of a strong stock. The Full Stochastics are turning up above 50 which is a bull market trait. Price is moving to new 52 week highs.  On the recent pullback, volume was light. Bullish. Now the PPO is above zero and looks set up to make higher highs. Another bullish trait.  The big picture is the three year base at $13. If this Read More 

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Apple Breakout Could Lift these Two Suppliers

by Arthur Hill

Apple (AAPL) broke out of a pennant formation with a surge on Friday and this breakout could bode well for Qorvo (QRVO) and Skyworks (SKWS). The first chart shows Qorvo surging over 20% and then stalling with a contracting consolidation. This is a pennant and it is a bullish continuation pattern. A breakout would signal a continuation higher and open the door to new highs. The indicator window shows the Correlation Coefficient so we can compare Qorvo with Apple. There were two dips into negative territory, but these two are positively correlated for the most part Read More 

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IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) Resumes The Uptrend

by Greg Schnell

IDEXX has built a textbook consolidation with an ascending base. Today it moved above the previous closing highs and looks like it is resuming a big uptrend.  The SCTR has moved back above 90 and the relative strength is almost at new highs. The price action is obviously bullish but this $208 level has provided some resistance. With today's surge, the stock looks to be leaving the $208 level in the rear view mirror.  The volume is ok with an average of 490,000 shares a day and the MACD has just turned up. This looks setup for another leg higher. Read More