Art's Charts

October 2015

Art's Charts

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Weighing the Evidence, Finding Leaders and Video

by Arthur Hill

Commentary Highlights: Bulk of the Evidence Is..... Read More 

Art's Charts

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50% is Enough for SPX -- Dollar Correlations in Play

by Arthur Hill

Commentary Highlights: QQQ and SPY Near Highs // End of Month Seasonality // Regional Banks Power Finance Sector // 50% Participation is Enough to Power SPX // Software and Internet Lead Techs // GDX Fails to Break Out // Palladium Corrects after Impulse Surge // Oil Gets Oversol... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Housing-Retail Drag -- Regionals-Insurance Lead Finance -- Oil Weighs on XES and XLE -- GDX Struggles at Breakout

by Arthur Hill

Embracing Relative Performance There is really only one thing to do with relative performance metrics: embrace them. If large-caps are outperforming small-caps, then favor large-caps over small-caps... Read More 

Art's Charts

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The Power of Trend -- PPO Saves the Shorts -- Bullish Pattern in IWM -- Gold Corrects

by Arthur Hill

Never Underestimate the Power of the Trend An important change occurred over the last two weeks as the overall market environment moved from bearish to bullish... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SPX Follow Thru -- NDX Leadership -- Seasonal Pattens in Play -- Small-Caps Lag, but this is Normal -- Weekend Reading

by Arthur Hill

Even though indicators help us quantify price action and add an objective aspect to our analysis, we must still study the price chart and analyze the price action... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Internal Divisions -- QQQ and SPY vs IWM and MDY -- Retail Retreats -- Wedges for Regionals -- Stocks Outperform Bonds

by Arthur Hill

Internal Divisions Stymie Market It is still a tale of two markets. Within the broader stock market, large-caps and large-techs are holding up well, but small-caps and mid-caps are dragging their feet... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Prior Price Surges in $SPX -- ST Uptrends Hold -- Retail and Housing Challenge Resistance

by Arthur Hill

A Price Surge to Match the Breadth Thrust It has been one heck of a three week period. SPY is up around 8%, QQQ is up around 9% and the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) is up around 7.5%. There are, of course, two ways to interpret these price surges... Read More 

Art's Charts

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QQQ and SPY Maintain Uptrends -- Can we Ignore Breadth and Volume Thrusts?

by Arthur Hill

I am starting to entertain the idea that the surge from late September to mid October was strong enough to negate the August breakdowns in SPY and QQQ. The bounce over the last few weeks contained strong breadth and strong upside volume... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Defining the Trend -- $SPX Challenges Downtrend -- $NDX Never Reversed -- $RUT Lags -- About That Breadth Surge

by Arthur Hill

Today I will start with weekly charts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000, or the big three as I call these major stock indices. One remains in an uptrend, one is close to reversing its downtrend and one remains in a clear downtrend... Read More 

Art's Charts

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QQQ Holds Gap -- Small Cap Breadth Triggers -- Retail-Housing Weaken -- Banks-Brokers Break -- XSD, AAPL and more

by Arthur Hill

Stalling and not Really Falling (Yet) Looking at the big three major index ETFs, two of the three are still short-term bullish and have yet to break down. QQQ stalled with some serious indecision the last four days... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Small-caps Show Weakness -- Swing within the Channel -- ABC, Wave 2 and Short SPX -- Short-term Breadth

by Arthur Hill

Small-caps Show Relative Weakness After stalling for two days, the major index ETFs moved lower on Tuesday with the Russell 2000 iShares (IWM) leading the way. Small-caps were lagging in September and they continue to lag in October... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Narrow Ranges -- QQQ Gap -- Gold Resistance -- Zweig Breadth Thrust

by Arthur Hill

Stymied Indexes Form Narrow Range Days Stocks stalled on Monday with mixed action in the major index ETFs. Stalling or sideways price action reflects a stand-off between bulls and bears (buying pressure and selling pressure)... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Up Big, but Still Down -- Raff Channels Define Trend -- Finance and Utilities Lag -- Banking ETFs Form Bearish Candles

by Arthur Hill

The major index ETFs are nearing their moment-of-truth as the smaller uptrends start to challenge the bigger downtrends. I am still assuming that the August breakdowns signaled the start of a bigger downtrend... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Thoughts on the Analysis Process -- A Signal Process for the S&P 500 -- Hacking the Slope of an EMA -- 2010 versus 2011 versus 2015

by Arthur Hill

Before looking at some charts to establish the bigger trend, I would like to philosophize a little on the analysis process and my approach. I use basic chart analysis and some simple trend-following indicators to define the trend and trade accordingly... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Minding Monday's Gap -- Short-Term Breadth -- Bigger Trend versus Smaller Trend -- Banks Strengthen

by Arthur Hill

Monday's Gaps Hold the First Key I am still working under the assumption that bigger trend is down after the August break down. Furthermore, SPY and QQQ are in the midst of counter trend moves denoted by a rising channel... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Rock and Hard Place for $SPX -- ST Breadth Becomes Overbought -- 5 Bearish Setups -- 5 Bullish Setups

by Arthur Hill

Overall, the major index ETFs remain in no man's land. Put another way, the market is between a rock (bigger downtrend) and a hard place (smaller uptrend). The bigger trend turned down with the August breakdown and broken resistance represents the rock around 2050... Read More 

Art's Charts

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No Man's Land -- IWM Challenges Breakdown -- Staples and Utilities Lead -- Webinar Recording

by Arthur Hill

Welcome to No Man's Land After months of dull trading, the stock market turned into Thrillsville in late August and volatility has continued into early October. This volatility is reminiscent of the periods from June to August 2010 and from early August to early October 2011... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Volatility Heats Up -- Uninspiring Breadth -- QQQ and SPY Hold Gaps -- XLE Breaks Out -- Semis Lead Tech -- Oil and Gold

by Arthur Hill

Note that I will post a video around 10AM ET. Volatility is clearly heating up as the S&P 500 completed its fifth 3+ percent swing since the August closing low. That is almost one 3+ percent swing per week (based on closing prices). With a 3... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Correlations Rise -- $SPX and Seasonals -- Big Three Down -- Bonds Rule -- Gold Bounces

by Arthur Hill

Note that I will add a video around 11AM ET. Stock futures were higher before the employment report and then moved sharply lower after non-farm payrolls came in below expectations. Bonds are moving higher and the 10-YR Treasury Yield ($TNX) fell below 2%... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Between Setup and Signal -- Staples-Utilities Lead -- ITB Reverses Trend -- Semis Split -- Oil Firms in Retracement Zone -- Video

by Arthur Hill

Between a Setup and a Signal Note that I will post a video around 10AM ET. Trends are the driving force, signals are the exception and no-man's land is the norm. What the heck does that mean? First, the bigger trend is the driving force in my trading strategy... Read More