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WORLD STOCK INDEXES ARE TESTING OVERHEAD RESISTANCE AND LOOKING OVER-EXTENDED -- THAT MAY EXPLAIN THEIR BAD REACTION TO TRADE TENSIONS

by John Murphy

TRADE TENSIONS RATTLE OVEREXTENDED GLOBAL STOCKS Renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China rattled global stocks this week. Stock prices are rising and falling with each news report. After falling sharply yesterday (Tuesday), stocks are rebounding today on more optimistic news reports about the meeting between U.S. and Chinese negotiators later this week. We don't know the  Read More

S&P Executes Wedge And Rotation To Defensive Sectors Accelerates

by Julius de Kempenaer

Since printing its high on 1 May, the S&P 500 has struggled to keep up and make its final push through resistance. Over the last three to four days, the bulls have capitulated, putting a reinforcement of the 2940-2950 resistance zone into place. The rising wedge formation that had been building up since March has now executed. On the daily relative rotation graph for US  Read More

Friends Don't Let Friends Buy and Hold

by Greg Morris

The timing of this article is appropriate. Part of this was written by Tim Chapman who was a founder of PMFM, the company I worked with and later became Stadion.  I liked its message so am updating it with this article.  I remember back when I was managing money, I had an interesting conversation with a longtime client. He was appreciative that I was able to protect his retirement  Read More

How Much Selling Is Ok?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, May 7, 2019 It was a wicked day on Wall Street.  It felt more like December 2018 than May 2019.  Volatility surged for a second consecutive day and sellers swamped buyers.  Volume accelerated as it generally does during market selloffs and a bit of panic was felt intraday.  If there was any good news, it was the Dow Jones' 170 point rally in  Read More

Micron Fails at Break Zone

by Arthur Hill

A basic concept of technical analysis is that broken support turns into future resistance. This concept is proving true for Micron (MU) as it returned to broken support in April and backed off the last two weeks. The chart shows MU breaking down with a support break in September and further weakness into late December. The stock recorded a 52-week low near 30 in late December and then rebounded  Read More

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A Shot Across the Bow with a Triple 90% Down Day - What to Watch Next

by Arthur Hill

Triple 90% Down Day It is way too early to call for a major top, but we do have a short-term breadth signal that points to further downside. The chart below shows AD Percent for the S&P 500, S&P Mid-Cap 400 and S&P Small-Cap 600. Together, these three indexes form the S&P 1500 and represent an excellent cross-section for the stock market. In addition to  Read More

DP Bulletin: New ST Trend Model Neutral Signal on the DOW - First to Fall

by Erin Swenlin

Just a quick bulletin to let you know the Dow Industrials lost the Short-Term Trend Model BUY signal, meaning it has now moved to "Neutral." The 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA, which is what triggered the signal change. Had the negative crossover occurred BELOW the 50-EMA, it would have been a SELL signal. However, it occurred above the 50-EMA, so we deem it a "Neutral" signal. Price has now  Read More

5/7 MWL: May Seasonality Report with Tom Bowley - Technical Scans

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Here is a link to today's show. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on   Read More

Campaign Caravan

by Bruce Fraser

For most investors Campaigning stocks is an acquired skill. A stock campaign is typically a multi-year endurance event. In a classic uptrend a stock will have trending periods followed by consolidations (Wyckoffians call them Reaccumulations). These pauses can last months to a year or more in duration. Wyckoff Campaigners resist the urge to sell stock, and take profits during the consolidation  Read More

Both Composite Indexes Stall At Resistance

by Greg Schnell

Looking at the broad composite charts below, we can see that both the Nasdaq and NYSE Composites are at important resistance points. The Nasdaq Composite is hovering at important technical resistance; the black line could be at 8100, but, by putting it at 8000, we can give it some wiggle room. This is after a huge thrust of 32% off of the December lows. The other major index  Read More

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STOCK PULLBACK CONTINUES -- ALL MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE BACK BELOW LAST YEAR'S PEAK

by John Murphy

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES LOSE MORE GROUND The stock market pullback that started yesterday is continuing again today. And all three major stock indexes appear headed for a test of underlying moving average lines. First and foremost, it's where this pullback is starting from that's most concerning. Which is the previous high established last year between August and October. All three major  Read More

Wall Street Shakes Off Trade Worries...For A Day

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, May 6, 2019 The session got off to a very rough start as global market were hit hard following word that US-China trade talks were off the tracks once again.  President Trump warned of steeper tariffs and Chinese officials said they were considering abandoning talks altogether.  That produced sellers everywhere, including the U.S., where the S&P 500  Read More

To Make More Profit in the Market, It Helps If You're Brain-Damaged

by Brian Livingston

Patients with damage in the part of the brain that monitors risk make more money in a simple investing game than normal people. We can learn from this. • Everything about a modern stock market involves random events and the chance of loss. How we deal with that can determine how profitable our investing turns out. Being 'ordinary' sometimes doesn't make as much profit as being a little contrary  Read More

5/6 MWL: John Hopkins' Earnings Spotlight - Monday Setups - DP Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Here is a link to today's show. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on   Read More

Ebay Holds the Gap and the Break

by Arthur Hill

Ebay (EBAY) reversed its downtrend with a reversal pattern and break above the 200-day SMA in late January and early February. After digesting its gains with a corrective pattern in March-April the stock broke out again with a gap and appears headed higher. The stock formed a rare island reversal from October to January. Notice how the EBAY gapped below 31 and continued lower in October. After  Read More

Jobs Strong On Friday But China Trade Weighs On Futures

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, May 3, 2019 April nonfarm payrolls were much stronger than expected, jumping to 263,000 and well ahead of the 180,000 consensus estimate.  The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, the lowest its seen in 50 years.  The bond market wasn't impressed, however, ending the Friday session down 2 basis points to 2.53%.  Even when we see solid economic strength, the  Read More

Working Through Prior Highs

by Greg Schnell

After the Fed meeting last two weeks, the market pulled back on Thursday with a big rally on Friday, which, despite having significantly less volume, managed to close above the September high. One of the concerns as we test a prior high is breadth. So far, we have had strong breadth readings in both Net New Highs and the Advance/Decline line. Other breadth readings, such  Read More

Week Ahead: This Zone Is Set To Act As Stiff Resistance Area For The Coming Week

by Milan Vaishnav

In a truncated 3-day working week, the Indian equity markets headed nowhere and ended the week on a flat note once again. In our previous weekly note, we had mentioned the possibility of the NIFTY failing to break resistance at 11760. In the week that went by, though the markets remained generally volatile, the NIFTY did not make any fresh incremental high. The week ended on  Read More