The last two days I filled you in on the DP Alert Daily Report and the DP Daily Update, both in the DP Reports blog. Today I'll cover the Market Recap and Expanded Market Summary Reports. Both are concise summaries of market action from not only today, but the past 5 and 15 days. They include not only price data, but also signals from the Price Momentum Model and Price Momentum Oscillator. Let's review the Market Recap first, it does look similar to the DP Alert Report, but it doesn't contain the market posture and Trend Model signals that are in the Alert.
The Daily Market Recap is made up of two main parts. The first part is the price data for major indexes, currencies and sectors, followed by a table that lists these components sorted by percent change. I find this section especially useful to see what indexes or sectors were the big winners for the day and the biggest losers. Here is a copy from yesterday of these two sections:
DECISION POINT DAILY MARKET RECAP
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
***************************** DAILY MARKET RECAP ***************************
Tot Up Down New New
Index Close Change %Chg Vol Vol Vol Adv Decl A-D High Low
---------- ------- ------ ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ---- ----
Dow Ind 16715.44 +19.97 +0.1% 310 155 155 17 13 +4 4 0
S&P 500 1897.45 +0.80 +0.0% 1770 805 897 217 276 -59 58 0
S&P 100 841.06 +1.09 +0.1% 788 374 353 58 39 +19 13 0
NYSE Comp 10702.86 -0.65 -0.0% 604 281 313 1404 1741 -337 147 20
NASDAQ 4130.17 -13.69 -0.3% 1859 787 1002 909 1768 -859 60 40
NASDAQ 100 3611.13 -1.60 -0.0% 596 259 286 35 63 -28 8 0
S&P 400 Md 1368.10 -6.48 -0.5% 440 188 248 95 301 -206 31 0
S&P 600 Sm 649.20 -7.88 -1.2% 292 87 204 92 505 -413 16 1
Dow Trans 7903.51 +36.06 +0.5% 46 42 3 14 6 +8 6 0
Dow Util 535.85 +1.36 +0.3% 52 35 17 10 5 +5 0 0
Russ 2000 1121.16 -12.49 -1.1% |----------------------------------------
XAU 90.39 -0.24 -0.3% | Currency Last Change %Chg
Gold 1294.80 -0.70 -0.1% |----------------- ------- ------ ------
Crude Oil 101.70 +1.08 +1.1% | US Dollar 80.19 +0.24 +0.3%
GSG Commod 33.39 +0.23 +0.7% | Euro 137.02 -0.56 -0.4%
T-Bill Yld 0.20 0.00 0.0% | Japanese Yen 97.80 -0.12 -0.1%
T-Bond Yld 34.54 -0.38 -1.1% | British Pound 168.26 -0.43 -0.3%
30-Yr Bond 135.20 +0.65 +0.5% | Canada Dollar 91.69 -0.13 -0.1%
****************************************************************************
MARKET AND SECTOR INDEXES SORTED BY TODAY'S PERCENTAGE CHANGE
05/13 WTD MTD YTD
Close $ %age %Price %Price %Price
Name Price Change Chg Change Change Change
---------------- -------- -------- ------ ------ ------ ------
US Oil Fund 37.04 +0.45 +1.2% +1.8% +2.0% +5%
Disk Drive Index 108.79 +1.06 +1.0% +2.7% -5.1% -6%
Commodities iSh 33.39 +0.23 +0.7% +1.2% +0.3% +4%
Dow Transports 7903.51 +36.06 +0.5% +2.4% +3.0% +7%
30-Yr Bond 135.20 +0.65 +0.5% 0.0% +0.7% +6%
Energy iShares 53.96 +0.24 +0.4% +1.0% +0.9% +7%
Agribusiness 54.86 +0.19 +0.3% +1.0% +0.3% +1%
Pharmaceutical 509.08 +1.55 +0.3% +0.8% -1.2% +9%
Telecom Index 1307.12 +4.45 +0.3% +0.9% +4.5% +3%
Dow Utilities 535.85 +1.36 +0.3% -0.7% -3.2% +9%
Dollar Index 80.19 +0.24 +0.3% +0.3% +0.8% 0%
Comp/Tech Indx 1392.47 +2.25 +0.2% +1.8% +0.4% +4%
Consumer Non-Cyc 97.85 +0.17 +0.2% +0.7% +1.1% +3%
Housing Index 197.38 +0.36 +0.2% +2.0% +2.0% -3%
Oil Index 1628.53 +4.03 +0.2% +0.9% +1.1% +8%
Dow Industrials 16715.44 +19.97 +0.1% +0.8% +0.8% +1%
S&P 100 841.06 +1.09 +0.1% +1.0% +0.6% +2%
Basic Mat'ls iSh 85.30 +0.05 +0.1% +1.5% +1.7% +5%
Defense Index 687.79 +0.65 +0.1% +1.5% +2.4% +7%
Health Care iSh 122.94 +0.07 +0.1% +1.2% +0.8% +6%
Natural Gas In 899.00 +0.90 +0.1% +0.5% -0.6% +10%
Silver 19.55 +0.02 +0.1% +1.9% +1.9% +1%
S&P 500 1897.45 +0.80 0.0% +1.0% +0.7% +3%
NYSE Comp 10702.86 -0.65 0.0% +0.9% +0.7% +3%
Nasdaq 100 3611.13 -1.60 0.0% +1.6% +0.8% +1%
Aerospace iSh 111.25 0.00 0.0% +1.5% +2.4% +5%
Health Care Prov 97.88 -0.01 0.0% +1.5% +3.3% +5%
Insurance iSh 47.01 +0.02 0.0% +1.3% +1.7% 0%
DJUS Tot Market 19824.90 -16.68 -0.1% +1.0% +0.6% +2%
Airline Index 82.90 -0.12 -0.1% +2.9% +4.9% +19%
Chemical 523.85 -0.68 -0.1% +1.0% +1.6% +5%
Cyclical iShares 81.63 -0.11 -0.1% +1.0% +0.5% -3%
Gold 1294.80 -0.70 -0.1% +0.4% +0.3% +7%
Consumer iShares 120.06 -0.21 -0.2% +1.0% +1.1% -1%
Nasdaq Comp 4130.17 -13.69 -0.3% +1.4% +0.4% -1%
Gold Index (XAU) 90.39 -0.24 -0.3% +1.1% -2.0% +7%
Financial iSh 81.00 -0.21 -0.3% +0.7% +0.8% +1%
Oil Service In 286.51 -0.74 -0.3% -1.4% -2.6% +2%
Technology Ind 1790.92 -6.21 -0.3% +1.2% +0.8% +3%
Medical Del iSh 97.88 -0.39 -0.4% +0.9% +3.0% +6%
Networking Ind 329.17 -1.20 -0.4% +2.5% +0.3% +2%
Retail SPDR 84.51 -0.37 -0.4% +1.5% +1.2% -4%
S&P 400 Mid-Cap 1368.10 -6.48 -0.5% +1.1% +0.9% +2%
Health Care Prd 75.86 -0.37 -0.5% +2.4% +3.6% -1%
Internet ETF 54.84 -0.27 -0.5% +2.8% -0.1% -8%
Biotech iShares 230.51 -1.41 -0.6% +1.8% +0.1% +2%
Broadcast/Entert 989.72 -6.21 -0.6% 0.0% +1.9% -1%
Real Estate iS 70.80 -0.42 -0.6% -0.4% +1.5% +14%
Semiconductor 581.88 -4.60 -0.8% +1.0% +1.0% +9%
Software iShares 79.78 -0.67 -0.8% +1.7% +0.6% -3%
Brokerage Index 154.83 -1.39 -0.9% +1.6% -0.6% -4%
Russell 2000 1121.16 -12.49 -1.1% +1.3% -0.5% -4%
S&P 600 Sml-Cap 649.20 -7.88 -1.2% +1.0% -0.4% -2%
Banking iSh 38.44 -0.50 -1.3% +0.6% -0.1% -5%
Average -0.1% +1.2% +0.8% +3%
The final portion of the Market Recap includes PMO and PMM signals. These are mechanical models created by Carl Swenlin. The PMO is the shorter-term model and the PMM is the longer-term model. Section one shows the indexes ranked by relative PMO strength. The next two sections show the signals for each of the models. And the final section compares the two in one table. The Hot/Cold Group & Blinkers are defined at the bottom of the report, but here is a review from yesterday's blog.
These groups and "+" "-" symbols add even more dimension to the ranking. They tell you which way momentum is currently swinging.
The PMO Rank is based on the PMO value, the higher the value, the stronger the momentum and internal strength of that index. The report also shows you how the rank has changed over the past 5 and 15 days. I also like that you can see the percentage price change not just for that day, but for the past 5 days and 15 days.
Let's look at the Hot/Cold Group and blinkers. The groups are on a scale of 1 to 6, with 1 being 'hottest' and 6 being 'coldest'. They are hot or cold based on their internal strength, price strength and rank strength. We can quickly assess the condition of these elements by the group number and "blinker" fields. Moving from left to right: The first blinker tells us if the PMO is above (+) or below (-) its10-day exponential moving average (EMA). The second blinker indicates if the closing price is above (+) or below (-) it's 20-DMA. The third and fourth blinkers tell us if the PMO is rising (+) or falling (-), and if it is above (+) or below (-) zero. The fifth blinker tells us if the 5-day PMO rank change is positive (+), negative (-), or the same ( ).
So if we look at the first row, the Oil Index is only in group 3, "lukewarm" group. The blinkers reading across tell us the PMO is above its 10-EMA and its closing price is above its 20-DMA. The PMO is falling but it is above zero. In the past five days it has not changed rank.
MARKET INDEXES RANKED BY STRENGTH
This section ranks market indexes by Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
relative strength so that we can observe rotational trends and identify the
sectors that are gaining or losing strength.
|-RankChg-| |---- % Price Change ----| Hot/Cold
PMO 5 15 On 5 15 Group &
Index Rank Day Day 05/13 Day Day YTD Blinkers
---------------- ---- ---- ---- ------ ----- ----- ------ |---------|
Oil Index 1 0 +1 +0.3% 0% +3% +8% 3 ++ -+
Natural Gas In 2 0 -1 +0.1% 0% 0% +10% 4 -+ -+
Energy iShares 3 0 0 +0.5% 0% +1% +7% 4 -+ -+
Real Estate iS 4 +2 +4 -0.6% +1% +2% +14% 3 ++ -+ +
Telecom Index 5 +4 +6 +0.3% +2% +4% +3% 1 ++ ++ +
Airline Index 6 +1 +1 -0.1% +3% +4% +19% 1 ++ ++ +
Dow Transports 7 +3 +5 +0.5% +3% +2% +7% 1 ++ ++ +
Dow Utilities 8 -4 -3 +0.3% -2% -1% +9% 5 -- -+ -
Pharmaceutical 9 -1 +14 +0.3% 0% 0% +9% 4 -+ -+ -
Consumer Non-Cyc 10 +1 +5 +0.2% +2% +2% +3% 1 ++ ++ +
Oil Service In 11 -6 -7 -0.3% -3% -5% +2% 5 -- -+ -
Basic Mat'ls iSh 12 +2 +2 +0.1% +2% +2% +5% 1 ++ ++ +
Insurance iSh 13 +5 +13 +0.0% +3% +3% 0% 1 ++ ++ +
NYSE Comp 14 -1 +3 -0.0% +1% +1% +3% 2 ++ ++ -
Agribusiness 15 -3 -2 +0.4% +1% 0% +1% 4 -+ ++ -
Chemical 16 +4 0 -0.1% +1% +1% +5% 1 ++ ++ +
Aerospace iSh 17 +8 +11 0.0% +2% +2% +5% 1 ++ ++ +
Defense Index 18 +6 +3 +0.1% +2% +2% +7% 1 ++ ++ +
S&P 100 19 -3 -1 +0.1% +2% +1% +2% 2 ++ ++ -
Dow Industrials 20 +1 0 +0.1% +2% +1% +1% 1 ++ ++ +
S&P 500 21 +1 +1 +0.0% +2% +1% +3% 1 ++ ++ +
30-Yr Bond 22 -5 -3 +0.5% 0% +1% +6% 2 ++ ++ -
Semiconductor 23 -4 -14 -0.8% +1% -1% +9% 4 -+ ++ -
Broadcast/Entert 24 +4 +18 -0.6% +1% +2% -1% 1 ++ ++ +
Comp/Tech Indx 24 -1 +1 +0.2% +2% +2% +4% 2 ++ ++ -
Commodities iSh 26 -11 -16 +0.7% +1% 0% +4% 4 -+ ++ -
DJUS Tot Market 27 0 -3 -0.1% +1% 0% +2% 1 ++ ++
US Oil Fund 28 -2 -22 +1.2% +2% 0% +5% 4 -+ ++ -
Health Care Prov 29 +7 +4 -0.0% +3% +4% +5% 1 ++ ++ +
Financial iSh 30 0 -3 -0.3% +2% 0% +1% 1 ++ ++
Health Care iSh 31 0 +7 +0.1% +1% +1% +6% 1 ++ ++
S&P 400 Mid-Cap 32 -3 -1 -0.5% +1% 0% +2% 2 ++ ++ -
Medical Del iSh 33 +7 -4 -0.4% +2% +1% +6% 2 ++ +- +
Nasdaq 100 34 +1 +10 -0.0% +2% +1% +1% 2 ++ +- +
Dollar Index 35 -3 -5 +0.3% +1% 0% 0% 2 ++ +- -
Retail SPDR 36 +2 +5 -0.4% +3% +2% -4% 2 ++ +- +
Consumer iShares 37 0 +2 -0.2% +2% 0% -1% 2 ++ +-
Cyclical iShares 38 -4 -1 -0.1% +1% -1% -3% 2 ++ +- -
Technology Ind 39 0 -3 -0.4% +1% -1% +3% 2 ++ +-
Gold 40 -7 -5 -0.1% -1% +1% +7% 4 -- +- -
Brokerage Index 41 0 +6 -0.9% +2% -1% -4% 2 ++ +-
Nasdaq Comp 42 +1 +4 -0.3% +1% -1% -1% 2 ++ +- +
Housing Index 43 +1 +5 +0.2% +2% +1% -3% 2 ++ +- +
S&P 600 Sml-Cap 44 -2 -10 -1.2% +1% -2% -2% 4 -- +- -
Networking Ind 45 0 -5 -0.4% +2% -3% +2% 4 -+ +-
Russell 2000 46 +1 -1 -1.1% +1% -3% -4% 4 -- +- +
Health Care Prd 47 +3 +2 -0.5% +2% 0% -1% 2 ++ +- +
Silver 48 0 +3 +0.1% 0% +1% +1% 2 ++ +-
Software iShares 49 +2 +1 -0.8% +2% -2% -3% 2 ++ +- +
Biotech iShares 50 +2 +4 -0.6% +1% -2% +2% 2 ++ +- +
Gold Index (XAU) 51 -5 +1 -0.3% -2% -1% +7% 6 -- -- -
Banking iSh 52 -3 -20 -1.3% +2% -4% -5% 4 -- +- -
Internet ETF 53 +1 0 -0.5% +2% -6% -8% 3 +- +- +
Disk Drive Index 54 -1 -11 +1.0% -2% -11% -6% 6 -- -- -
Average -0.1% +1% +0% +3%
****************************************************************************
PMO (PRICE MOMENTUM OSCILLATOR) CROSSOVER SIGNALS
The PMO generates BUY or SELL Signals when it crosses up or down through
its 10-DMA. These signals tend to be short-term in duration, but they can
last for several weeks. Do not take them at face value because they can
whipsaw quite a bit. They should be used to alert you to possible trading
opportunities not used as a mechanical trading model. Always check our daily
stock charts to verify the price pattern and the configuration of the PMO.
Signals are best when price appears extended, is near support or resistance,
and the PMO is very overbought or oversold. These signals may also be used to
manage positions based on the longer-term Price Momentum Model signals.
SUMMARY OF PMO CROSSOVER SIGNALS
BUY SELL
Total Signals...: 38 16
% of Total......: 70% 30%
Ave Days Elapsed: 11 25
Ave High Profit.: 1% 3%
Ave Profit......: 1% 2%
Percentage of PMOs Rising........: 83%
Percentage of PMOs Above Zero....: 59%
THIS IS A LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH AND IS NEITHER A
SOLICITATION NOR RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL THE LISTED SECURITIES.
05/13 Cal
Close % Days High Today PMO
Name Price Chg Sgnl Elap P/L P/L R/F Days
---------------- -------- ------ ---- ---- ------- ------- --------
Internet ETF 54.84 -0.5% BUY 0 0.0% -0.4% R 1
Nasdaq Comp 4130.17 -0.3% BUY 1 0.0% -0.3% R 1
DJUS Tot Market 19824.90 -0.1% BUY 1 0.0% -0.1% R 1
Airline Index 82.90 -0.1% BUY 1 0.0% -0.1% R 6
Brokerage Index 154.83 -0.9% BUY 1 0.0% -0.9% R 1
Comp/Tech Indx 1392.47 +0.2% BUY 1 0.2% 0.2% R 1
Cyclical iShares 81.63 -0.1% BUY 1 0.0% -0.1% R 1
Financial iSh 81.00 -0.3% BUY 1 0.0% -0.3% R 6
Retail SPDR 84.51 -0.4% BUY 1 0.0% -0.4% R 4
Software iShares 79.78 -0.8% BUY 1 0.0% -0.8% R 4
Technology Ind 1790.92 -0.3% BUY 1 0.0% -0.3% R 4
Dollar Index 80.19 +0.3% BUY 1 0.3% 0.3% R 4
Silver 19.55 +0.1% BUY 1 0.1% 0.0% R 1
Health Care Prd 75.86 -0.5% BUY 4 2.9% 2.4% R 5
Medical Del iSh 97.88 -0.4% BUY 4 1.4% 0.9% R 11
Health Care Prov 97.88 0.0% BUY 5 2.4% 2.4% R 6
Chemical 523.85 -0.1% BUY 6 0.5% 0.4% R 11
Basic Mat'ls iSh 85.30 +0.1% BUY 8 1.2% 1.2% R 1
S&P 400 Mid-Cap 1368.10 -0.5% BUY 11 1.0% 0.5% R 1
Defense Index 687.79 +0.1% BUY 11 1.8% 1.8% R 13
Telecom Index 1307.12 +0.3% BUY 11 2.7% 2.7% R 13
Housing Index 197.38 +0.2% BUY 12 1.2% 1.0% R 4
Consumer iShares 120.06 -0.2% BUY 13 1.3% 1.1% R 4
Aerospace iSh 111.25 0.0% BUY 14 3.0% 3.0% R 14
Health Care iSh 122.94 +0.1% BUY 15 1.5% 1.5% R 4
Nasdaq 100 3611.13 0.0% BUY 19 0.6% 0.6% R 4
Broadcast/Entert 989.72 -0.6% BUY 19 2.2% 1.6% R 26
Insurance iSh 47.01 0.0% BUY 19 2.1% 2.1% R 6
S&P 500 1897.45 0.0% BUY 20 1.2% 1.2% R 1
S&P 100 841.06 +0.1% BUY 20 1.4% 1.4% R 1
Biotech iShares 230.51 -0.6% BUY 20 1.0% -0.2% R 4
Dow Industrials 16715.44 +0.1% BUY 21 1.2% 1.2% R 6
NYSE Comp 10702.86 0.0% BUY 21 1.0% 1.0% R 1
Consumer Non-Cyc 97.85 +0.2% BUY 22 1.9% 1.9% R 6
Dow Transports 7903.51 +0.5% BUY 22 2.8% 2.8% R 6
Real Estate iS 70.80 -0.6% BUY 26 3.7% 3.0% F 0
30-Yr Bond 135.20 +0.5% BUY 32 1.0% 0.8% R 4
Oil Index 1628.53 +0.2% BUY 49 9.8% 9.4% F 5
Pharmaceutical 509.08 +0.3% SELL 0 0.0% 0.1% F 7
Energy iShares 53.96 +0.4% SELL 4 0.0% -1.0% F 5
Agribusiness 54.86 +0.3% SELL 5 0.3% -0.7% R 5
Gold Index (XAU) 90.39 -0.3% SELL 5 0.6% -0.5% F 0
Natural Gas In 899.00 +0.1% SELL 5 0.3% -0.2% F 5
Gold 1294.80 -0.1% SELL 6 0.0% -0.5% R 1
Dow Utilities 535.85 +0.3% SELL 8 2.5% 2.2% F 5
Commodities iSh 33.39 +0.7% SELL 13 0.9% -0.3% R 0
Oil Service In 286.51 -0.3% SELL 14 2.1% 2.1% F 19
US Oil Fund 37.04 +1.2% SELL 18 1.3% -1.2% R 0
Banking iSh 38.44 -1.3% SELL 36 7.8% 5.9% R 1
Semiconductor 581.88 -0.8% SELL 39 3.3% -0.5% R 1
S&P 600 Sml-Cap 649.20 -1.2% SELL 49 5.1% 3.3% R 1
Russell 2000 1121.16 -1.1% SELL 53 8.1% 6.1% R 1
Disk Drive Index 108.79 +1.0% SELL 63 15.4% 12.3% F 20
Networking Ind 329.17 -0.4% SELL 76 7.3% 5.1% R 1
Average -0.1% 15 2.0% 1.4% 5
*****************************************************************************
PRICE MOMENTUM MODEL SIGNALS
The SWENLIN PRICE MOMENTUM MODEL is intended to catch long-term price moves.
Model Signals are mechanically generated by a 200-day exponential moving
average crossover in conjunction with a 10% price move in the opposite
direction of the current signal extreme. For example, assume that the current
signal is a BUY. If the price drops 10% from the signal high, and also drops
below the 200 DMA, a SELL Signal will be generated automatically. The
MOMENTUM MODEL SIGNALS work best when prices are trending and changing
direction smoothly. When prices are volatile, particularly in a 10% range,
results will be extremely poor. By design, these signals will always miss at
least the first 10% of a move. Rather than wait for a signal reversal, it is
best to use trend analysis and other indicators to decide when to exit a
position. New signals should alert you to the possibility that a change in
direction is taking place. Once alerted, watch price movement and other
indicators to determine an optimum entry point, if any.
SUMMARY OF PRICE MOMENTUM MODEL (PMM) SIGNALS
BUY SELL
Total Signals...: 46 8
% of Total......: 85% 15%
Ave Days Elapsed: 552 68
Ave High Profit.: 41% 4%
Ave Profit......: 38% 0%
Ave Rel to STOP.: 9% -6%
PRICE MOMENTUM MODEL SIGNALS
This is a list of PRICE MOMENTUM MODEL SIGNALS for market and sector
indexes. The newest signals give notice that the trend may be in the
process of making a long-term change of direction.
THIS IS A LIST OF CANDIDATES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH AND IS NEITHER A
SOLICITATION NOR RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL THE LISTED SECURITIES.
05/13 Cal Price
Close % Days High Today Rel to
Name Price Change Sgnl Elap P/L P/L STOP Stop
---------------- -------- ------ ---- ---- ------ ------ -------- -------
Insurance iSh 47.01 0.0% BUY 40 1.2% 1.2% 42.31 +11.1%
Oil Service In 286.51 -0.3% BUY 46 4.5% -0.7% 271.34 +5.6%
Retail SPDR 84.51 -0.4% BUY 75 1.6% -1.3% 78.31 +7.9%
Gold 1294.80 -0.1% BUY 78 3.3% -3.2% 1244.25 +4.1%
US Oil Fund 37.04 +1.2% BUY 84 2.7% 1.0% 33.89 +9.3%
Dow Utilities 535.85 +0.3% BUY 89 7.6% 3.8% 499.99 +7.2%
Agribusiness 54.86 +0.3% BUY 179 3.5% 3.5% 49.37 +11.1%
Real Estate iS 70.80 -0.6% BUY 208 8.2% 7.6% 64.10 +10.5%
Housing Index 197.38 +0.2% BUY 237 12.7% 4.5% 191.56 +3.0%
Commodities iSh 33.39 +0.7% BUY 299 3.0% 0.6% 30.76 +8.5%
Networking Ind 329.17 -0.4% BUY 363 47.7% 38.4% 313.11 +5.1%
Comp/Tech Indx 1392.47 +0.2% BUY 376 24.2% 23.8% 1257.20 +10.8%
Nasdaq 100 3611.13 0.0% BUY 448 33.9% 29.8% 3354.47 +7.7%
Health Care Prd 75.86 -0.5% BUY 480 37.9% 29.6% 72.63 +4.4%
Energy iShares 53.96 +0.4% BUY 481 28.9% 28.2% 48.84 +10.5%
Oil Index 1628.53 +0.2% BUY 483 26.6% 26.2% 1469.53 +10.8%
Nasdaq Comp 4130.17 -0.3% BUY 488 39.6% 32.3% 3922.17 +5.3%
Basic Mat'ls iSh 85.30 +0.1% BUY 496 22.8% 22.8% 76.77 +11.1%
Semiconductor 581.88 -0.8% BUY 496 49.1% 45.6% 530.31 +9.7%
S&P 600 Sml-Cap 649.20 -1.2% BUY 509 43.0% 35.9% 614.62 +5.6%
Russell 2000 1121.16 -1.1% BUY 511 42.6% 32.3% 1087.79 +3.1%
Brokerage Index 154.83 -0.9% BUY 522 87.5% 76.3% 147.57 +4.9%
Airline Index 82.90 -0.1% BUY 587 109.9% 109.6% 70.37 +17.8%
Aerospace iSh 111.25 0.0% BUY 613 74.5% 73.9% 100.24 +11.0%
Medical Del iSh 97.88 -0.4% BUY 613 51.0% 46.7% 90.66 +8.0%
S&P 400 Mid-Cap 1368.10 -0.5% BUY 616 42.0% 39.3% 1255.19 +9.0%
Defense Index 687.79 +0.1% BUY 634 76.5% 76.3% 618.62 +11.2%
DJUS Tot Market 19824.90 -0.1% BUY 635 36.3% 35.6% 17934.34 +10.5%
Cyclical iShares 81.63 -0.1% BUY 635 50.5% 45.1% 76.17 +7.2%
Chemical 523.85 -0.1% BUY 642 42.3% 42.1% 472.08 +11.0%
NYSE Comp 10702.86 0.0% BUY 644 33.5% 33.5% 9633.15 +11.1%
Technology Ind 1790.92 -0.3% BUY 644 47.7% 42.8% 1666.75 +7.5%
Health Care Prov 97.88 0.0% BUY 669 53.0% 50.3% 89.65 +9.2%
Natural Gas In 899.00 +0.1% BUY 679 43.5% 41.5% 818.54 +9.8%
Financial iSh 81.00 -0.3% BUY 680 51.8% 49.6% 73.98 +9.5%
Telecom Index 1307.12 +0.3% BUY 680 39.8% 39.8% 1176.41 +11.1%
Dollar Index 80.19 +0.3% BUY 882 5.7% -0.1% 76.37 +5.0%
Dow Transports 7903.51 +0.5% BUY 932 61.2% 61.2% 7113.16 +11.1%
Dow Industrials 16715.44 +0.1% BUY 935 41.6% 41.6% 15043.90 +11.1%
S&P 500 1897.45 0.0% BUY 935 53.2% 53.2% 1707.71 +11.1%
S&P 100 841.06 +0.1% BUY 935 50.6% 50.6% 756.95 +11.1%
Consumer Non-Cyc 97.85 +0.2% BUY 935 50.7% 50.7% 88.07 +11.1%
Broadcast/Entert 989.72 -0.6% BUY 942 115.7% 109.2% 918.17 +7.8%
Consumer iShares 120.06 -0.2% BUY 986 87.9% 81.6% 111.86 +7.3%
Health Care iSh 122.94 +0.1% BUY 986 91.9% 86.3% 113.96 +7.9%
Pharmaceutical 509.08 +0.3% BUY 986 63.6% 61.1% 465.08 +9.5%
Banking iSh 38.44 -1.3% SELL 7 0.0% -2.0% 41.45 -7.3%
Disk Drive Index 108.79 +1.0% SELL 18 9.3% 6.0% 116.37 -6.5%
Biotech iShares 230.51 -0.6% SELL 32 0.0% -7.0% 236.91 -2.7%
Software iShares 79.78 -0.8% SELL 32 0.0% -2.8% 85.36 -6.5%
Internet ETF 54.84 -0.5% SELL 33 5.5% 1.8% 58.03 -5.5%
Silver 19.55 +0.1% SELL 48 3.7% 1.2% 21.14 -7.5%
Gold Index (XAU) 90.39 -0.3% SELL 50 4.8% 3.8% 98.32 -8.1%
30-Yr Bond 135.20 +0.5% SELL 327 7.4% 1.7% 140.09 -3.5%
Average -0.1% 481 35.9% 32.6% +6.6%
*****************************************************************************
SHORT-TERM (PMO) and LONG-TERM (PMM) SIGNAL COMPARISONS
The Price Momentum Model (PMM) signal provides guidance regarding the
longer-term trend, and the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) signals identify
the shorter-term trend. A logical trading methodology is to open positions
on new PMO signals when they are compatable with the PMM signals. Positions
may be closed or hedged when the PMM and PMO signals are in conflict.
This section compares the PMO and PMM signals side by side and provides
some mechanical analysis. A "Warn!" flag is an alert that the PMO signal is
in conflict with the PMM -- closing or hedging the PMM position may be
considered. A "Buy?" or "Sell?" flag is an alert that the PMO signal has
just changed and is the same as the PMM signal -- opening new PMM positions
may be considered.
The list is sorted in order of PMO relative strength.
SUMMARY OF SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM SIGNALS FOR MARKET AND SECTOR INDEXES
SHORT-TERM LONG-TERM
PMO PMO PMM PMM
BUY SELL BUY SELL
Total Signals...: 38 16 46 8
% of Total......: 70% 30% 85% 15%
Ave Days Elapsed: 11 25 552 68
Ave High Profit.: 1% 3% 42% 4%
Ave Profit......: 1% 2% 38% 0%
Ave Rel to STOP.: 9% -6%
Percentage of PMOs Rising........: 83%
Percentage of PMOs Above Zero....: 59%
|- PMO Crossover Model --|-- Price Momentum Model --|
| PMO High Today | PMM High Today|
Name Flag| Sgnl Day P/L P/L | Sgnl Days P/L P/L|
----------------- -----| ---- --- ------ ------ | ---- ---- ------- -------|
Dow Industrials BUY 21 +1.2% +1.2% BUY 935 +41.6% +41.6%
S&P 500 BUY 20 +1.2% +1.2% BUY 935 +53.2% +53.2%
S&P 100 BUY 20 +1.4% +1.4% BUY 935 +50.6% +50.6%
NYSE Comp BUY 21 +1.0% +1.0% BUY 644 +33.5% +33.5%
Nasdaq Comp BUY 1 0.0% -0.3% BUY 488 +39.6% +32.3%
Nasdaq 100 BUY 19 +0.6% +0.6% BUY 448 +33.9% +29.8%
Russell 2000 Warn! SELL 53 +8.1% +6.1% BUY 511 +42.6% +32.3%
S&P 400 Mid-Cap BUY 11 +1.0% +0.5% BUY 616 +42.0% +39.3%
S&P 600 Sml-Cap Warn! SELL 49 +5.1% +3.3% BUY 509 +43.0% +35.9%
DJUS Tot Market BUY 1 0.0% -0.1% BUY 635 +36.3% +35.6%
Aerospace iSh BUY 14 +3.0% +3.0% BUY 613 +74.5% +73.9%
Agribusiness Warn! SELL 5 +0.3% -0.7% BUY 179 +3.5% +3.5%
Airline Index BUY 1 0.0% -0.1% BUY 587 +109.9% +109.6%
Banking iSh SELL 36 +7.8% +6.0% SELL 7 0.0% -2.0%
Basic Mat'ls iSh BUY 8 +1.3% +1.3% BUY 496 +22.8% +22.8%
Biotech iShares Warn! BUY 20 +1.0% -0.2% SELL 32 +0.0% -7.0%
Broadcast/Entert BUY 19 +2.2% +1.6% BUY 942 +115.7% +109.2%
Brokerage Index BUY 1 0.0% -0.9% BUY 522 +87.5% +76.3%
Chemical BUY 6 +0.5% +0.4% BUY 642 +42.3% +42.2%
Comp/Tech Indx BUY 1 +0.2% +0.2% BUY 376 +24.2% +23.8%
Consumer iShares BUY 13 +1.3% +1.1% BUY 986 +88.0% +81.6%
Consumer Non-Cyc BUY 22 +1.9% +1.9% BUY 935 +50.7% +50.7%
Cyclical iShares BUY 1 0.0% -0.1% BUY 635 +50.5% +45.1%
Defense Index BUY 11 +1.8% +1.8% BUY 634 +76.5% +76.3%
Disk Drive Index SELL 63 +15.5% +12.3% SELL 18 +9.4% +6.0%
Energy iShares Warn! SELL 4 0.0% -1.0% BUY 481 +28.9% +28.2%
Gold Index (XAU) SELL 5 +0.6% -0.5% SELL 50 +4.8% +3.8%
Health Care iSh BUY 15 +1.5% +1.5% BUY 986 +91.9% +86.3%
Financial iSh BUY 1 0.0% -0.3% BUY 680 +51.8% +49.6%
Health Care Prov BUY 5 +2.4% +2.4% BUY 669 +53.0% +50.3%
Health Care Prd BUY 4 +2.9% +2.4% BUY 480 +37.9% +29.6%
Housing Index BUY 12 +1.2% +1.0% BUY 237 +12.7% +4.5%
Insurance iSh BUY 19 +2.1% +2.1% BUY 40 +1.2% +1.2%
Internet ETF Warn! * BUY 0 0.0% -0.4% SELL 33 +5.5% +1.8%
Medical Del iSh BUY 4 +1.4% +1.0% BUY 613 +51.0% +46.7%
Natural Gas In Warn! SELL 5 +0.3% -0.2% BUY 679 +43.5% +41.5%
Networking Ind Warn! SELL 76 +7.3% +5.1% BUY 363 +47.7% +38.4%
Oil Index BUY 49 +9.8% +9.4% BUY 483 +26.6% +26.2%
Oil Service In Warn! SELL 14 +2.1% +2.1% BUY 46 +4.5% -0.7%
Pharmaceutical Warn! *SELL 0 0.0% +0.1% BUY 986 +63.6% +61.1%
Real Estate iS BUY 26 +3.7% +3.0% BUY 208 +8.2% +7.6%
Retail SPDR BUY 1 0.0% -0.4% BUY 75 +1.7% -1.3%
Semiconductor Warn! SELL 39 +3.3% -0.5% BUY 496 +49.1% +45.6%
Software iShares Warn! BUY 1 0.0% -0.8% SELL 32 0.0% -2.8%
Technology Ind BUY 1 0.0% -0.4% BUY 644 +47.7% +42.8%
Telecom Index BUY 11 +2.7% +2.7% BUY 680 +39.8% +39.8%
Dow Transports BUY 22 +2.8% +2.8% BUY 932 +61.2% +61.2%
Dow Utilities Warn! SELL 8 +2.5% +2.2% BUY 89 +7.6% +3.8%
Commodities iSh Warn! SELL 13 +0.9% -0.3% BUY 299 +3.0% +0.6%
Dollar Index BUY 1 +0.3% +0.3% BUY 882 +5.8% -0.1%
US Oil Fund Warn! SELL 18 +1.3% -1.2% BUY 84 +2.7% +1.0%
30-Yr Bond Warn! BUY 32 +1.0% +0.8% SELL 327 +7.4% +1.7%
Gold Warn! SELL 6 -0.0% -0.5% BUY 78 +3.3% -3.2%
Silver Warn! BUY 1 +0.1% +0.0% SELL 48 +3.7% +1.2%
Next is the Expanded Market Summary. This report, next to the DP Alert Report, is one of the most popular reports on the DP website. You can see why below. It contains very detailed price change information for the major indexes and sectors for the last five trading days. This is followed by Interest Rate, Currency, Commodities, Breadth and Volume, Traditional and Ratio-Adjusted McClellan Oscillator analysis. Finally the report closes with analysis of precious metals, sentiment and earnings.
DECISION POINT
EXPANDED MARKET SUMMARY
Tuesday 5/13/2014
********************* MARKET and SECTOR INDEX ANALYSIS **********************
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Dow Industrials ($INDU).....: 16715.44 16695.47 16583.34 16550.97 16518.54
Points Change............: +19.97 +112.13 +32.37 +32.43 +117.52
Percent Change...........: +0.1% +0.7% +0.2% +0.2% +0.7%
S&P 500 ($SPX)..............: 1897.45 1896.65 1878.48 1875.63 1878.21
Points Change............: +0.80 +18.17 +2.85 -2.58 +10.49
Percent Change...........: 0.0% +1.0% +0.2% -0.1% +0.6%
S&P 100 ($OEX)..............: 841.06 839.97 832.96 831.59 832.00
Points Change............: +1.09 +7.01 +1.37 -0.41 +4.94
Percent Change...........: +0.1% +0.8% +0.2% 0.0% +0.6%
NYSE Comp ($NYA)............: 10702.86 10703.50 10606.69 10610.65 10626.84
Points Change............: -0.64 +96.81 -3.96 -16.19 +58.16
Percent Change...........: 0.0% +0.9% 0.0% -0.2% +0.6%
Nasdaq Comp ($COMPQ)........: 4130.17 4143.86 4071.87 4051.50 4067.67
Points Change............: -13.69 +71.99 +20.37 -16.17 -13.09
Percent Change...........: -0.3% +1.8% +0.5% -0.4% -0.3%
Nasdaq 100 ($NDX)...........: 3611.13 3612.73 3555.70 3540.42 3546.47
Points Change............: -1.60 +57.03 +15.28 -6.05 -10.04
Percent Change...........: 0.0% +1.6% +0.4% -0.2% -0.3%
Russell 2000 ($RUT).........: 1121.16 1133.65 1107.22 1097.43 1108.55
Points Change............: -12.49 +26.43 +9.79 -11.12 +0.54
Percent Change...........: -1.1% +2.4% +0.9% -1.0% 0.0%
S&P 400 Mid-Cap ($MID)......: 1368.10 1374.58 1353.79 1350.53 1357.46
Points Change............: -6.48 +20.79 +3.26 -6.93 +5.90
Percent Change...........: -0.5% +1.5% +0.2% -0.5% +0.4%
S&P 600 Sml-Cap ($SML)......: 649.20 657.08 642.69 637.59 642.91
Points Change............: -7.88 +14.39 +5.10 -5.32 +2.66
Percent Change...........: -1.2% +2.2% +0.8% -0.8% +0.4%
DJUS Tot Market ($DWCF).....: 19824.90 19841.58 19621.01 19579.49 19632.67
Points Change............: -16.68 +220.57 +41.52 -53.18 +92.54
Percent Change...........: -0.1% +1.1% +0.2% -0.3% +0.5%
AMEX ($XAX).................: 2630.76 2633.38 2596.41 2612.89 2620.74
Points Change............: -2.62 +36.97 -16.48 -7.85 +9.49
Percent Change...........: -0.1% +1.4% -0.6% -0.3% +0.4%
Aerospace iSh (ITA).........: 111.25 111.25 109.61 109.42 109.82
Points Change............: 0.00 +1.64 +0.19 -0.40 +0.84
Percent Change...........: 0.0% +1.5% +0.2% -0.4% +0.8%
Agribusiness (MOO)..........: 54.86 54.67 54.32 54.47 54.79
Points Change............: +0.19 +0.35 -0.15 -0.32 +0.52
Percent Change...........: +0.3% +0.6% -0.3% -0.6% +1.0%
Airline Index ($XAL)........: 82.90 83.02 80.60 80.65 80.53
Points Change............: -0.12 +2.42 -0.05 +0.12 +0.38
Percent Change...........: -0.1% +3.0% -0.1% +0.1% +0.5%
Banking iSh (KRE)...........: 38.44 38.94 38.22 37.89 38.06
Points Change............: -0.50 +0.72 +0.33 -0.17 +0.38
Percent Change...........: -1.3% +1.9% +0.9% -0.4% +1.0%
Basic Mat'ls iSh (IYM)......: 85.30 85.25 84.02 84.05 84.50
Points Change............: +0.05 +1.23 -0.03 -0.45 +0.63
Percent Change...........: +0.1% +1.5% 0.0% -0.5% +0.8%
Biotech iShares (IBB).......: 230.51 231.92 226.44 223.35 227.48
Points Change............: -1.41 +5.48 +3.09 -4.13 -1.85
Percent Change...........: -0.6% +2.4% +1.4% -1.8% -0.8%
Broadcast/Entert ($DJUSBC)..: 989.72 995.93 989.94 988.98 984.24
Points Change............: -6.21 +5.99 +0.96 +4.74 +1.06
Percent Change...........: -0.6% +0.6% +0.1% +0.5% +0.1%
Brokerage Index ($XBD)......: 154.83 156.22 152.36 151.63 153.50
Points Change............: -1.39 +3.86 +0.73 -1.87 +1.44
Percent Change...........: -0.9% +2.5% +0.5% -1.2% +0.9%
Chemical ($DJUSCH)..........: 523.85 524.53 518.85 519.09 521.90
Points Change............: -0.68 +5.68 -0.24 -2.81 +4.58
Percent Change...........: -0.1% +1.1% 0.0% -0.5% +0.9%
Comp/Tech Indx ($XCI).......: 1392.47 1390.22 1368.09 1364.98 1364.96
Points Change............: +2.25 +22.13 +3.11 +0.02 -4.80
Percent Change...........: +0.2% +1.6% +0.2% 0.0% -0.4%
Consumer iShares (IYC)......: 120.06 120.27 118.84 117.98 117.94
Points Change............: -0.21 +1.43 +0.86 +0.04 -0.24
Percent Change...........: -0.2% +1.2% +0.7% 0.0% -0.2%
Consumer Non-Cyc (IYK)......: 97.85 97.68 97.17 96.88 96.89
Points Change............: +0.17 +0.51 +0.29 -0.01 +1.00
Percent Change...........: +0.2% +0.5% +0.3% 0.0% +1.0%
Cyclical iShares (RXI)......: 81.63 81.74 80.82 80.40 80.67
Points Change............: -0.11 +0.92 +0.42 -0.27 -0.07
Percent Change...........: -0.1% +1.1% +0.5% -0.3% -0.1%
Defense Index ($DFX)........: 687.79 687.14 677.88 676.97 679.15
Points Change............: +0.65 +9.26 +0.91 -2.18 +4.04
Percent Change...........: +0.1% +1.4% +0.1% -0.3% +0.6%
Disk Drive Index ($DDX).....: 108.79 107.73 105.92 104.91 105.68
Points Change............: +1.06 +1.81 +1.01 -0.77 -5.54
Percent Change...........: +1.0% +1.7% +1.0% -0.7% -5.0%
Energy iShares (IYE)........: 53.96 53.72 53.41 53.40 54.27
Points Change............: +0.24 +0.31 +0.01 -0.87 +0.47
Percent Change...........: +0.4% +0.6% 0.0% -1.6% +0.9%
Gold Index (XAU) ($XAU).....: 90.39 90.63 89.38 89.91 90.03
Points Change............: -0.24 +1.25 -0.53 -0.12 -1.98
Percent Change...........: -0.3% +1.4% -0.6% -0.1% -2.2%
Health Care iSh (IYH).......: 122.94 122.87 121.50 120.80 121.53
Points Change............: +0.07 +1.37 +0.70 -0.73 +0.31
Percent Change...........: +0.1% +1.1% +0.6% -0.6% +0.3%
Financial iSh (IYF).........: 81.00 81.21 80.41 80.40 80.25
Points Change............: -0.21 +0.80 +0.01 +0.15 +1.03
Percent Change...........: -0.3% +1.0% 0.0% +0.2% +1.3%
Health Care Prov (IHF)......: 97.88 97.89 96.44 95.58 96.36
Points Change............: -0.01 +1.45 +0.86 -0.78 +1.44
Percent Change...........: 0.0% +1.5% +0.9% -0.8% +1.5%
Health Care Prd (XHE).......: 75.86 76.23 74.10 73.74 73.54
Points Change............: -0.37 +2.13 +0.36 +0.20 -0.93
Percent Change...........: -0.5% +2.9% +0.5% +0.3% -1.2%
Housing Index ($HGX)........: 197.38 197.02 193.60 193.13 193.85
Points Change............: +0.36 +3.42 +0.47 -0.72 +0.20
Percent Change...........: +0.2% +1.8% +0.2% -0.4% +0.1%
Insurance iSh (IAK).........: 47.01 46.99 46.40 46.40 46.03
Points Change............: +0.02 +0.59 0.00 +0.37 +0.57
Percent Change...........: 0.0% +1.3% 0.0% +0.8% +1.3%
Internet ETF (FDN)..........: 54.84 55.11 53.37 52.75 52.87
Points Change............: -0.27 +1.74 +0.62 -0.12 -1.05
Percent Change...........: -0.5% +3.3% +1.2% -0.2% -1.9%
Medical Del iSh (IHI).......: 97.88 98.27 96.96 96.21 96.13
Points Change............: -0.39 +1.31 +0.75 +0.08 +0.23
Percent Change...........: -0.4% +1.4% +0.8% +0.1% +0.2%
Natural Gas In ($XNG).......: 899.00 898.10 894.52 897.61 911.80
Points Change............: +0.90 +3.58 -3.09 -14.19 +9.64
Percent Change...........: +0.1% +0.4% -0.3% -1.6% +1.1%
Networking Ind ($NWX).......: 329.17 330.37 321.29 322.45 322.79
Points Change............: -1.20 +9.08 -1.16 -0.34 -0.33
Percent Change...........: -0.4% +2.8% -0.4% -0.1% -0.1%
Oil Index ($XOI)............: 1628.53 1624.50 1614.61 1619.36 1634.48
Points Change............: +4.03 +9.89 -4.75 -15.12 +7.88
Percent Change...........: +0.2% +0.6% -0.3% -0.9% +0.5%
Oil Service In ($OSX).......: 286.51 287.25 290.66 292.15 296.37
Points Change............: -0.74 -3.41 -1.49 -4.22 +2.21
Percent Change...........: -0.3% -1.2% -0.5% -1.4% +0.8%
Pharmaceutical ($DRG).......: 509.08 507.53 504.99 505.12 508.39
Points Change............: +1.55 +2.54 -0.13 -3.27 -1.09
Percent Change...........: +0.3% +0.5% 0.0% -0.6% -0.2%
Real Estate iS (IYR)........: 70.80 71.22 71.07 71.08 71.04
Points Change............: -0.42 +0.15 -0.01 +0.04 +0.82
Percent Change...........: -0.6% +0.2% 0.0% +0.1% +1.2%
Retail SPDR (XRT)...........: 84.51 84.88 83.26 81.80 81.33
Points Change............: -0.37 +1.62 +1.46 +0.47 -0.86
Percent Change...........: -0.4% +1.9% +1.8% +0.6% -1.0%
Semiconductor ($SOX)........: 581.88 586.48 575.97 577.83 573.99
Points Change............: -4.60 +10.51 -1.86 +3.84 +0.50
Percent Change...........: -0.8% +1.8% -0.3% +0.7% +0.1%
Software iShares (IGV)......: 79.78 80.45 78.46 78.08 78.35
Points Change............: -0.67 +1.99 +0.38 -0.27 +0.12
Percent Change...........: -0.8% +2.5% +0.5% -0.3% +0.2%
Technology Ind ($PSE).......: 1790.92 1797.13 1769.19 1761.06 1766.61
Points Change............: -6.21 +27.94 +8.13 -5.55 +1.59
Percent Change...........: -0.3% +1.6% +0.5% -0.3% +0.1%
Telecom Index ($XTC)........: 1307.12 1302.67 1295.44 1294.95 1286.93
Points Change............: +4.45 +7.23 +0.49 +8.02 +9.31
Percent Change...........: +0.3% +0.6% 0.0% +0.6% +0.7%
Dow Transports ($TRAN)......: 7903.51 7867.45 7719.30 7703.70 7700.26
Points Change............: +36.06 +148.15 +15.60 +3.44 +43.75
Percent Change...........: +0.5% +1.9% +0.2% 0.0% +0.6%
Dow Utilities ($UTIL).......: 535.85 534.49 539.55 547.44 553.66
Points Change............: +1.36 -5.06 -7.89 -6.22 +8.80
Percent Change...........: +0.3% -0.9% -1.4% -1.1% +1.6%
************************* INTEREST RATE ANALYSIS ****************************
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
30-Yr Bond (!USB)...........: 135.20 134.55 135.16 135.25 135.46
Points Change............: +0.65 -0.61 -0.09 -0.21 +0.12
Percent Change...........: +0.5% -0.5% -0.1% -0.2% +0.1%
30-Yr Bond Yld ($TYX).......: 34.54 34.92 34.67 34.15 34.03
Points Change............: -0.38 +0.25 +0.52 +0.12 +0.22
Percent Change...........: -1.1% +0.7% +1.5% +0.4% +0.7%
10-Yr T-Note Yld ($TNX).....: 26.18 26.56 26.23 26.02 25.90
Points Change............: -0.38 +0.33 +0.21 +0.12 -0.05
Percent Change...........: -1.4% +1.3% +0.8% +0.5% -0.2%
5-Yr T-Note Yld ($FVX)......: 16.20 16.58 16.25 16.18 16.46
Points Change............: -0.38 +0.33 +0.07 -0.28 -0.35
Percent Change...........: -2.3% +2.0% +0.4% -1.7% -2.1%
3-Mo T-Bill Yld ($IRX)......: 0.20 0.20 0.22 0.22 0.20
Points Change............: 0.00 -0.02 0.00 +0.02 0.00
Percent Change...........: 0.0% -9.1% 0.0% +10.0% 0.0%
*************************** CURRENCY ANALYSIS *******************************
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Dollar Index ($USD).........: 80.19 79.95 79.93 79.48 79.27
Points Change............: +0.24 +0.02 +0.45 +0.21 +0.11
Percent Change...........: +0.3% 0.0% +0.6% +0.3% +0.1%
Euro ($XEU).................: 137.02 137.58 137.70 138.38 139.11
Points Change............: -0.56 -0.12 -0.68 -0.73 -0.17
Percent Change...........: -0.4% -0.1% -0.5% -0.5% -0.1%
Japanese Yen ($XJY).........: 97.80 97.92 98.17 98.38 98.14
Points Change............: -0.12 -0.25 -0.21 +0.24 -0.22
Percent Change...........: -0.1% -0.3% -0.2% +0.2% -0.2%
British Pound ($XBP)........: 168.26 168.68 168.50 169.33 169.55
Points Change............: -0.42 +0.18 -0.83 -0.22 -0.20
Percent Change...........: -0.2% +0.1% -0.5% -0.1% -0.1%
Canadian Dollar ($CDW)......: 91.69 91.82 91.73 92.35 91.76
Points Change............: -0.13 +0.09 -0.62 +0.59 -0.07
Percent Change...........: -0.1% +0.1% -0.7% +0.6% -0.1%
Aussie Dollar ($XAD)........: 93.57 93.62 93.62 93.72 93.27
Points Change............: -0.05 0.00 -0.10 +0.45 -0.24
Percent Change...........: -0.1% 0.0% -0.1% +0.5% -0.3%
************************** COMMODITIES ANALYSIS *****************************
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
Oil - Lt Crude ($WTIC)......: 101.70 100.62 100.07 100.27 100.85
Points Change............: +1.08 +0.55 -0.20 -0.58 +0.99
Percent Change...........: +1.1% +0.5% -0.2% -0.6% +1.0%
Commodities iSh (GSG).......: 33.39 33.16 33.00 33.16 33.23
Points Change............: +0.23 +0.16 -0.16 -0.07 +0.15
Percent Change...........: +0.7% +0.5% -0.5% -0.2% +0.5%
Gold ($GOLD)................: 1294.80 1295.50 1289.40 1289.60 1289.70
Points Change............: -0.70 +6.10 -0.20 -0.10 -18.00
Percent Change...........: -0.1% +0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -1.4%
Silver ($SILVER)............: 19.55 19.53 19.18 19.18 19.33
Points Change............: +0.02 +0.35 0.00 -0.15 -0.25
Percent Change...........: +0.1% +1.8% 0.0% -0.8% -1.3%
********************** VOLUME and BREADTH ANALYSIS **************************
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
NYSE COMPOSITE Volume (Mil).: 2847.05 2979.56 3006.61 3373.42 3596.04
% of Average Daily Volume...: 85% 89% 90% 101% 108%
NYSE PRIMARY Volume (Mil)...: 604.06 640.64 651.26 694.65 765.88
% of Average Daily Volume...: 83% 89% 90% 96% 106%
NYSE Advancing Volume (Mil).: 281.26 539.03 302.91 280.92 506.98
NYSE Declining Volume (Mil).: 313.34 93.73 341.80 407.24 251.23
Adv Vol-Decl Vol..........: -32 +445 -39 -126 +256
Adv Vol/Decl Vol..........: 0.9 5.8 0.9 0.7 2.0
*Greater than 9 is Bullish
NASDAQ Volume (Millions)....: 1858.86 1851.05 1962.84 2399.93 2451.71
% of Average Daily Volume...: 97% 96% 102% 125% 128%
NASDAQ Advancing Vol (Mil)..: 786.59 1551.89 1098.76 910.45 881.52
NASDAQ Declining Vol (Mil)..: 1001.66 291.99 729.33 1434.67 1548.25
Adv Vol-Decl Vol..........: -215 +1260 +369 -524 -667
NDX Volume (Millions).......: 596.28 529.16 526.86 657.02 820.36
% of Average Daily Volume...: 90% 80% 80% 100% 124%
NDX Advancing Vol (Mil).....: 259.17 479.92 287.71 296.80 316.57
NDX Declining Vol (Mil).....: 285.89 47.67 230.78 324.54 502.39
SPX Volume (Millions).......: 1769.83 1812.64 1877.64 2064.71 2360.27
% of Average Daily Volume...: 78% 80% 83% 91% 105%
SPX Advancing Vol (Mil).....: 805.25 1544.82 898.31 978.76 1485.14
SPX Declining Vol (Mil).....: 896.72 260.94 965.35 1079.26 857.83
OEX Volume (Millions).......: 787.52 788.95 799.29 905.36 1023.38
% of Average Daily Volume...: 74% 74% 75% 85% 96%
OEX Advancing Vol (Mil).....: 373.50 690.87 359.45 478.55 699.88
OEX Declining Vol (Mil).....: 352.90 96.34 433.12 426.75 318.15
Dow Volume (Millions).......: 310.43 279.62 267.83 322.59 376.62
% of Average Daily Volume...: 71% 64% 61% 74% 86%
Dow Advancing Vol (Mil).....: 155.02 231.52 118.18 216.92 284.54
Dow Declining Vol (Mil).....: 155.42 47.51 149.46 105.62 92.01
S&P 400 Volume (Millions)...: 439.97 466.18 437.42 547.78 540.68
S&P 400 Advancing Vol (Mil).: 188.25 399.55 248.05 173.92 314.31
S&P 400 Declining Vol (Mil).: 247.51 66.17 183.05 370.79 221.31
S&P 600 Volume (Millions)...: 291.99 271.33 288.78 298.78 320.88
S&P 600 Advancing Vol (Mil).: 86.74 241.48 162.72 95.13 172.94
S&P 600 Declining Vol (Mil).: 203.54 25.71 121.65 202.31 146.82
DJTA Volume (Millions)......: 45.62 50.15 46.70 53.40 49.80
DJTA Advancing Vol (Mil)....: 42.36 50.15 22.98 37.07 36.72
DJTA Declining Vol (Mil)....: 3.26 0.00 23.72 16.33 7.22
DJUA Volume (Millions)......: 52.22 59.72 60.35 55.38 58.23
DJUA Advancing Vol (Mil)....: 34.77 5.47 0.00 0.00 58.23
DJUA Declining Vol (Mil)....: 17.46 54.16 60.23 55.38 0.00
IMPORTANT NOTE: Advancing and declining volume for the SPX, NDX, OEX, Dow,
SP MidCap, and SP SmlCap is not "tick volume". Total daily volume for each
stock in these indexes is cast into the advancing or declining column based
of whether the stock closes up or down.
NYSE Advances...............: 1404 2463 1746 1325 2033
NYSE Declines...............: 1741 672 1349 1811 1100
Advances-Declines.........: -337 +1791 +397 -486 +933
Advances/Declines.........: 0.8 3.7 1.3 0.7 1.8
10 DMA of Adv/Declines*...: 1.40 1.50 1.30 1.20 1.20
*Greater than 2 is Bullish
NASDAQ Advances.............: 909 2141 1677 857 1178
NASDAQ Declines.............: 1768 544 952 1814 1464
Advances-Declines.........: -859 +1597 +725 -957 -286
Advances/Declines.........: 0.5 3.9 1.8 0.5 0.8
NDX Advances................: 35 92 64 50 44
NDX Declines................: 63 8 34 49 56
Advances-Declines.........: -28 +84 +30 +1 -12
SPX Advances................: 217 429 279 217 365
SPX Declines................: 276 70 218 280 132
Advances-Declines.........: -59 +359 +61 -63 +233
OEX Advances................: 58 86 60 48 80
OEX Declines................: 39 14 39 52 20
Advances-Declines.........: +19 +72 +21 -4 +60
Dow Advances................: 17 24 19 18 25
Dow Declines................: 13 6 11 12 5
Advances-Declines.........: +4 +18 +8 +6 +20
S&P MidCap 400 Advances.....: 95 362 251 140 283
S&P MidCap 400 Declines.....: 301 38 140 256 112
Advances-Declines.........: -206 +324 +111 -116 +171
S&P SmlCap 600 Advances.....: 92 556 466 164 358
S&P SmlCap 600 Declines.....: 505 41 128 430 236
Advances-Declines.........: -413 +515 +338 -266 +122
DJTA Advances...............: 14 20 9 14 15
DJTA Declines...............: 6 0 11 6 4
Advances-Declines.........: +8 +20 -2 +8 +11
DJUA Advances...............: 10 2 0 0 15
DJUA Declines...............: 5 13 15 15 0
Advances-Declines.........: +5 -11 -15 -15 +15
NYSE New Highs..............: 147 165 69 153 142
NYSE New Lows...............: 20 14 61 49 78
New Highs-New Lows........: +127 +151 +8 +104 +64
NASDAQ New Highs............: 60 65 21 54 38
NASDAQ New Lows.............: 40 47 139 142 179
New Highs-New Lows........: +20 +18 -118 -88 -141
NDX New Highs...............: 8 7 1 4 6
NDX New Lows................: 0 0 1 1 4
New Highs-New Lows........: +8 +7 0 +3 +2
SPX New Highs...............: 58 52 16 43 44
SPX New Lows................: 0 0 2 2 5
New Highs-New Lows........: +58 +52 +14 +41 +39
OEX New Highs...............: 13 10 3 5 7
OEX New Lows................: 0 0 0 0 0
New Highs-New Lows........: +13 +10 +3 +5 +7
Dow New Highs...............: 4 3 1 2 1
Dow New Lows................: 0 0 0 0 0
New Highs-New Lows........: +4 +3 +1 +2 +1
S&P 400 New Highs...........: 31 31 3 31 23
S&P 400 New Lows............: 0 0 2 3 9
New Highs-New Lows........: +31 +31 +1 +28 +14
S&P 600 New Highs...........: 16 20 8 17 14
S&P 600 New Lows............: 1 0 15 16 33
New Highs-New Lows........: +15 +20 -7 +1 -19
DJTA New Highs..............: 6 3 0 0 1
DJTA New Lows...............: 0 0 0 0 0
New Highs-New Lows........: +6 +3 0 0 +1
DJUA New Highs..............: 0 1 0 1 2
DJUA New Lows...............: 0 0 0 0 0
New Highs-New Lows........: 0 +1 0 +1 +2
Arms Index 1-Day (TRIN).....: 0.90 0.64 1.46 1.06 0.92
Arms Index 4-DMA (TRIN).....: 1.02 1.02 1.22 1.18 1.13
Arms Index 10-Day Open Arms.: 1.07 1.07 1.12 1.11 1.12
Arms Index 10-DMA (TRIN)....: 1.11 1.10 1.17 1.19 1.19
Arms Index 21-DMA (TRIN)....: 1.07 1.11 1.20 1.17 1.17
Arms Index 55-DMA (TRIN)....: 1.12 1.11 1.13 1.11 1.12
PMO Rising - SPX............: 70% 74% 53% 47% 52%
PMO Rising - OEX............: 77% 78% 54% 49% 51%
PMO Rising - NDX............: 63% 73% 50% 47% 40%
PMO Rising - Dow............: 73% 82% 55% 38% 36%
PMO BUY Signals - SPX.......: 59% 55% 49% 49% 50%
PMO BUY Signals - OEX.......: 59% 55% 51% 49% 50%
PMO BUY Signals - NDX.......: 53% 47% 50% 47% 47%
PMO BUY Signals - Dow.......: 60% 57% 48% 47% 50%
PMO Above Zero - SPX........: 68% 66% 63% 63% 63%
PMO Above Zero - OEX........: 74% 73% 72% 73% 72%
PMO Above Zero - NDX........: 73% 73% 73% 73% 73%
PMO Above Zero - Dow........: 43% 41% 39% 40% 41%
SPX Stocks Above 200-DMA...: 86% 87% 84% 83% 82%
OEX Stocks Above 200-DMA...: 89% 89% 87% 86% 84%
NDX Stocks Above 200-DMA...: 73% 75% 69% 66% 67%
DJIA Stocks Above 200-DMA...: 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
DJTA Stocks Above 200-DMA...: 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%
DJUA Stocks Above 200-DMA...: 93% 93% 93% 93% 100%
SPX Stocks Above 50-DMA....: 72% 74% 64% 63% 62%
OEX Stocks Above 50-DMA....: 79% 79% 75% 74% 71%
NDX Stocks Above 50-DMA....: 47% 55% 40% 39% 36%
DJIA Stocks Above 50-DMA....: 83% 83% 73% 70% 73%
DJTA Stocks Above 50-DMA....: 95% 95% 75% 75% 70%
DJUA Stocks Above 50-DMA....: 47% 53% 73% 93% 100%
SPX Stocks Above 20-DMA....: 73% 75% 58% 57% 60%
OEX Stocks Above 20-DMA....: 82% 83% 71% 71% 69%
NDX Stocks Above 20-DMA....: 56% 70% 46% 39% 38%
DJIA Stocks Above 20-DMA....: 83% 87% 73% 70% 67%
DJTA Stocks Above 20-DMA....: 100% 95% 75% 75% 70%
DJUA Stocks Above 20-DMA....: 13% 7% 27% 47% 93%
*****************************************************************************
TRADITIONAL McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR FIVE-DAY LOOKBACK
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
5% EMA of Adv-Decl..........: +271.62 +303.65 +225.37 +216.34 +253.31
10% EMA of Adv-Decl.........: +286.43 +355.70 +196.22 +173.91 +247.24
McClellan Oscillator........: +14.81 +52.04 -29.15 -42.43 -6.07
Net Change................: -37.23 +81.19 +13.28 -36.36 +40.42
A-D Req'd for No Chg McOsi: +301
A-D Req'd for McOsi = 0 ..: +5
McClellan Summation Index...: +3582.96 +3568.16 +3516.11 +3545.26 +3587.69
** RATIO-ADJUSTED McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR FIVE-DAY LOOKBACK
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
5% EMA of Adv-Decl (RA).....: +87.32 +97.56 +72.63 +69.70 +81.52
10% EMA of Adv-Decl (RA)....: +91.90 +114.02 +63.21 +55.98 +79.42
McClellan Oscillator (RA)...: +4.58 +16.46 -9.41 -13.71 -2.10
Net Change................: -11.88 +25.87 +4.30 -11.61 +12.88
McClellan Summation Index...: +832.03 +827.45 +810.99 +820.40 +834.12
IT Breadth Momentum Osc.....: +88.03 +87.09 +82.27 +85.43 +90.22
Bottom/Top/Direction......: Rising Rising Bottom Falling Falling
A-D Req'd for ITBM TOP....: +179
A-D Req'd for ITBM = 0....: -18157
*Rather than simply subtracting declines from advances, Ratio-Adjusted
indicators are based on a ratio of advances and declines which is calculated
like this: (Advances-Declines)/(Advances+Declines)*1000.
OTHER MARKET INDEX McCLELLAN OSCILLATOR FIVE-DAY LOOKBACK (RATIO-ADJUSTED)
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
NASDAQ 5% EMA of A-D........: -49.74 -35.47 -68.65 -86.77 -72.48
NASDAQ 10% EMA of A-D.......: -52.44 -22.61 -91.21 -131.99 -106.85
NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator.: -2.70 +12.86 -22.57 -45.22 -34.36
NASDAQ Summation Index......: -473.16 -470.47 -483.33 -460.76 -415.54
NASDAQ ITBM Oscillator......: -80.80 -83.65 -91.86 -89.42 -79.66
NDX 5% EMA of A-D...........: +49.37 +67.00 +26.32 +11.59 +11.67
NDX 10% EMA of A-D..........: +66.34 +105.46 +23.85 -7.52 -9.48
NDX McClellan Oscillator....: +16.98 +38.46 -2.47 -19.11 -21.14
NDX Summation Index.........: +340.85 +323.88 +285.42 +287.89 +307.00
NDX ITBM Oscillator.........: +44.62 +40.32 +28.81 +29.64 +35.89
SPX 5% EMA of A-D...........: +85.29 +96.08 +63.27 +60.14 +69.98
SPX 10% EMA of A-D..........: +94.69 +118.51 +51.74 +43.85 +62.81
SPX McClellan Oscillator....: +9.40 +22.43 -11.53 -16.29 -7.17
SPX Summation Index.........: +768.36 +758.97 +736.54 +748.07 +764.36
SPX ITBM Oscillator.........: +80.99 +78.42 +71.47 +74.94 +80.20
OEX 5% EMA of A-D...........: +119.21 +115.17 +83.34 +76.56 +82.70
OEX 10% EMA of A-D..........: +146.17 +140.64 +76.27 +61.17 +72.42
OEX McClellan Oscillator....: +26.96 +25.47 -7.07 -15.39 -10.28
OEX Summation Index.........: +949.48 +922.52 +897.05 +904.12 +919.51
OEX ITBM Oscillator.........: +108.99 +101.86 +94.72 +97.56 +103.31
DJIA 5% EMA of A-D..........: +96.26 +94.31 +67.69 +57.22 +49.70
DJIA 10% EMA of A-D.........: +117.99 +116.28 +62.54 +39.86 +22.06
DJIA McClellan Oscillator...: +21.73 +21.98 -5.15 -17.36 -27.64
DJIA Summation Index........: +766.98 +745.24 +723.26 +728.42 +745.78
DJIA ITBM Oscillator........: +68.71 +60.82 +52.22 +51.65 +54.89
************************* PARTICIPATION INDEX (PI) **************************
The PARTICIPATION INDEX (PI) tracks the percentage of stocks whose prices
are hitting the top or bottom of their short-term trend envelope, and are
indicating maximum UP or DOWN Participation in the current price move.
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
SPX UP Participation Index..: 32 58 27 25 39
SPX DOWN Participation Index: 15 10 20 23 22
OEX UP Participation Index..: 43 60 26 30 45
OEX DOWN Participation Index: 4 5 10 18 22
NDX UP Participation Index..: 32 59 22 19 16
NDX DOWN Participation Index: 20 2 20 28 39
Dow UP Participation Index..: 40 53 30 33 47
Dow DOWN Participation Index: 7 3 3 17 20
***************************** INDEX ANALYSIS ******************************
SPX OEX NDX DJIA DJTA DJUA
Price/Earnings Ratio........: 19 19 24 16 18 22
Dividend Yield..............: 1.9% 1.8% 0.7% 2.2% 1.2% 3.7%
Advancing Stocks............: 217 58 35 17 14 10
Declining Stocks............: 276 39 63 13 6 5
Net Advances-Declines.....: -59 +19 -28 +4 +8 +5
% of Stocks Above 200 DMA...: 86% 89% 73% 90% 90% 93%
% of PMO Rising Trends......: 70% 77% 63% 73% 100% 7%
% of PMO Above Zero.........: 68% 74% 73% 43% 85% 100%
% of PMO Xover BUY Signals..: 59% 59% 53% 60% 85% 7%
% Price Momentum BUY Signals: 80% 83% 68% 83% N/A N/A
% Price Momentum SELL Signal: 20% 17% 32% 17% N/A N/A
*************************** PRECIOUS METALS WATCH ***************************
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
XAU (Gold & Silver Mng Indx): 90.39 90.63 89.38 89.91 90.03
Points Change............: -0.24 +1.25 -0.53 -0.12 -1.98
Percent Change...........: -0.3% +1.4% -0.6% -0.1% -2.2%
NY GOLD.....................: 1294.80 1295.50 1289.40 1289.60 1289.70
Points Change............: -0.70 +6.10 -0.20 -0.10 -18.00
Percent Change...........: -0.1% +0.5% 0.0% 0.0% -1.4%
NY SILVER...................: 19.55 19.53 19.18 19.18 19.33
Points Change............: +0.02 +0.35 0.00 -0.15 -0.25
Percent Change...........: +0.1% +1.8% 0.0% -0.8% -1.3%
CENTRAL FUND CANADA (CEF) is a closed-end mutual fund whose assets consist
of gold and silver at a ratio of 50 oz. of silver to 1 oz. of gold.
CENTRAL GOLD TRUST (GTU) is a closed-end fund whose assets are gold only.
Decision Point monitors the amount of premium or discount between the Net
Asset Value (NAV) and the share price of these two funds to estimate
bullish or bearish sentiment in precious metals stocks.
CEF Premium (Discount)......: -4.9%
GTU Premium (Discount)......: -3.1%
******************** DAILY MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS **********************
PUT/CALL RATIO: This is a 10 DMA of daily put volume divided by daily call
volume. High readings indicate excessive bearish sentiment (which is
bullish) and low readings indicate excessive bullish sentiment (which is
bearish.
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Put/Call Ratio 10DMA (Total): 0.86 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.89
Put/Call Ratio 10DMA(Equity): 0.63 0.63 0.64 0.64 0.64
Put/Call Ratio 10DMA (OEX)..: 1.35 1.39 1.51 1.61 1.67
BOLLINGER PUT VOLUME INDICATOR: To calculate, divide the day's put volume
by a 10 DMA of daily put volume. A BUY Signal is given when the index
exceeds 2.0.
05/13 05/12 05/09 05/08 05/07
----------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Bollinger PVI (CBOE)........: 1.04 1.10 1.12 1.12 1.06
Buy Signal (2.0 or higher):
Bollinger PVI (Equity)......: 0.92 0.84 1.03 1.02 1.13
Buy Signal (2.0 or higher):
Bollinger PVI (OEX).........: 0.71 1.06 0.96 1.04 0.95
Buy Signal (2.0 or higher):
********************* OTHER MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS *********************
AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF INDEPENDENT INVESTORS (AAII) INVESTOR SENTIMENT
Survey results courtesy of AAII (http://www.aaii.com).
05/07 04/30 04/23 04/16 04/09 04/02
-------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Percent BULLS......: 28% 30% 35% 27% 29% 35%
Percent BEARS......: 29% 30% 26% 34% 34% 27%
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE ADVISOR SENTIMENT
Source: Investors Intelligence (http://www.investorsintelligence.com).
05/02 04/25 04/17 04/11 04/04 03/28
-------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Percent BULLS......: 55.8% 54.7% 51.6% 50.5% 54.6% 50.5%
Percent BEARS......: 19.7% 20.6% 21.7% 20.6% 18.6% 18.6%
WALL STREET SENTIMENT SURVEY
The Wall Street Sentiment Poll is a weekly survey of a group of technically
oriented market analysts with a diverse set of analytical disciplines. Data
Data are provided by Mark Young of Equity Guardian Group.
05/09 05/02 04/25 04/17 04/11 04/04
-------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Percent ST Bulls...: 20% 11% 40% 28% 31% 35%
Percent ST Bears...: 50% 56% 50% 39% 25% 55%
NYSE SHORT INTEREST RATIO: NYSE has become unreliable in reporting these data,
so we are discontinuing coverage.
************************** MUTUAL FUND CASH FLOWS ***************************
WEEKLY CASH FLOW INTO MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (Est Dollars In Billions)
05/07 04/30 04/23 04/16 04/09 04/02
-------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Money Market Funds.: +16.47 -10.20 +7.32 -35.02 -17.70 -13.12
******* MONTHLY MUTUAL FUND TRENDS (Estimated Dollars In Billions) **********
This information is reported by ICI (investment Company Institute) one month
after the month end.
03/14 02/14 01/14 12/13 11/13 10/13
----------------------------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Total Assets Stock Funds....: 7945.2 7937.4 7543.0 7762.3 7601.4 7601.4
Net Cash Flow Stock Funds...: +10.42 +19.19 +23.90 +0.17 +22.22 +20.68
Stock Funds Percent Cash....: 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 3.8% 3.8%
Stock Funds Dollars Cash....: 294.0 293.7 271.5 271.7 288.9 288.9
Total Money Market Funds....: 2631.4 2661.0 2708.4 2718.6 2673.2 2673.2
Net Cash Flow MM Funds......: -29.16 -46.73 -9.40 +44.14 +5.08 -12.12
Mny Mkt as % of Stock Funds.: 33.1% 33.5% 35.9% 35.0% 35.2% 35.2%
Total Assets Bond Funds.....: 3348.0 3335.3 3296.2 3301.2 3335.4 3335.4
Net Cash Flow Bond Funds....: +12.50 +7.80 +1.20 -25.10 -18.20 -15.60
*************************** S&P 500 FUNDAMENTALS ****************************
The following are the most recently reported and projected twelve-month
trailing (TMT) earnings, quarterly earnings, and price/earnings ratios (P/Es)
according to Standard and Poors.
Est Est Est Est
2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4
TMT P/E Ratio (GAAP).......: 18.90 18.80 18.10 17.20 16.60
TMT P/E Ratio (Operating)..: 17.70 17.40 16.90 16.40 15.80
TMT Earnings (GAAP)........: 100.20 100.70 104.73 110.50 114.02
TMT Earnings (Operating)...: 107.30 108.94 112.08 115.80 119.81
QTRLY Earnings (GAAP)......: 26.48 24.72 28.90 30.40 30.00
QTRLY Earnings (Operating).: 28.25 27.41 29.50 30.64 32.26
For a more thorough discussion of earnings and other fundamentals
click here.
**************************** VALUE RANGE ANALYSIS ***************************
The yield for the DJIA, DJTA and the S&P 500 has historically moved
between a range of 3% (overvalued) and 6% (undervalued). The normal yield
range for the DJUA is between 3% and 12%. Decision Point expresses this
range as an RVR (Relative to Value Range) value of between 0 (undervalued)
and 100 (overvalued). Values can fall outside that range, and, when they
do, indicate even greater extremes of market valuation.
IMPORTANT!! Dividend changes can radically alter the RVR.
S&P 500 DJIA DJTA *DJUA
----------------------------------- ------- ----- ----- -----
Current Closing Price.............: 1897 16715 7904 536
Current Yield.....................: 1.9% 2.2% 1.2% 3.7%
Current P/E.......................: 19 16 18 22
Current Payout Ratio..............: 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.8
Current RVR.......................: 136 126 159 92
Price at 1.5% Yield..............: 2403 24515 6323 1322
Price at 3.0% Yield (RVR 100)....: 1201 12258 3162 661
Price at 4.0% Yield..............: 901 9193 2371 496
Price at 5.0% Yield..............: 721 7355 1897 397
Price at 6.0% Yield (RVR 0).....: 601 6129 1581 331
Price at 8.0% Yield..............: 451 4597 1186 248
Price at 12.0% Yield (RVR 0 - DJUA).........................: 165
*********************** MISCELLANEOUS MARKET MEASURES ***********************
DJIA Yield.............: 2.21% Bearish (Norm Rng: 3% - 6%)
DJIA P/E...............: 16.38 Neutral (Norm Rng: 10 - 20)
T-Bill Yield/DJIA Yield: 0.73 Bullish (Norm Rng: 1.6 - 2.0)
Price to Dividend Ratio: 45.25 Bearish (Should be less than 30)
These reports contain a plethora of data and information that isn't necessarily meant for daily consumption, but they are set up for quick review and ease of use. You'll find these reports in the DP Reports blog in the paid area of StockCharts.com. Take a look and browse, you may find that one piece of information that might become critical to your daily analysis.
Happy Charting,
Erin
About the author:
Erin Swenlin is a co-founder of the DecisionPoint.com website along with her father, Carl Swenlin. She launched the DecisionPoint daily blog in 2009 alongside Carl and now serves as a consulting technical analyst and blog contributor at StockCharts.com. Erin is an active Member of the CMT Association. She holds a Master's degree in Information Resource Management from the Air Force Institute of Technology as well as a Bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Southern California.
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