DecisionPoint.com has been providing table/spreadsheet reports for years. Each report provides a complete review of the market day, in addition to comparisons to previous days and to other indexes and sectors. In a glance you can see numerically what the market has accomplished as well as the actual values for our indicators. There are five reports that are uploaded to the DP Reports blog each day. Additionally, the DP Daily Update, which I covered in yesterday's blog is the lead article each day in the DP Reports blog. Today I'm going to cover the DP Alert Daily Report.
This report is the cornerstone of DecisionPoint content. The DP Alert Daily Report has been printed for nearly 20 years. It presents the Trend Model signals for the major indexes and sectors for the day and how long the signal has been in place. It also lets you know how that signal has been doing since it was generated. You will also find the indexes and sectors sorted by percent change, price momentum signal changes, and PMO strength ranking. The DP Alert Daily Report is also reprinted in the DP Daily Update, so you'll find past DP Alerts in the DP Daily Update archives which go back to 2010. This report's signals are tracked by Timer Digest, a technical analysis magazine that summarizes the track record for major analysts in the business (Tom McClellan, Steve Todd, Hamzei Analytics, Christopher Cadbury, among others). Here is the first part of the DP Alert report, I think it is self-explanatory. I'll go over the second half further below.
DECISIONPOINT ALERT DAILY REPORT
Monday, 5/12/2014 ************************ DECISIONPOINT MARKET POSTURE *********************** The following is the market posture suggested by our mechanical trend- following tools. These are not trading recommendations, rather they are price activity flags that should be qualified by chart analysis. The Trend Model is used on all indexes. Days Index 05/12 Points Percent Index Posture Date Elap @Start Close P/L P/L ------------------- ------- -------- ---- ------- ------- ------- ------- Stocks Medium-Term Bullish 02/11/14 90 181.18 189.79 +8.61 +4.8% Stocks Long-Term Bullish 02/11/14 90 181.18 189.79 +8.61 +4.8% Gold (NY Spot) Bearish 04/22/14 20 1283.10 1295.80 -12.70 -1.0% 20+Yr T-Bond (TLT) Bullish 01/17/14 115 104.43 110.79 +6.36 +6.1% ------------------- ------- -------- ---- ------- ------- ------- ------- Dollar Index (UUP) Bearish 02/13/14 88 21.53 21.37 +0.16 +0.7% Commodities (GSG) Bullish 02/11/14 90 32.16 33.16 +1.00 +3.1% Crude Oil (USO) Bullish 02/10/14 91 35.63 36.59 +0.96 +2.7% ------------------- ------- -------- ---- ------- ------- ------- ------- S&P 500 (SPY) BUY 02/11/14 90 181.18 189.79 +8.61 +4.8% S&P Equal Wt (RSP) BUY 11/30/12 528 51.21 73.99 +22.78 +44.5% Dow (DIA) BUY 02/20/14 81 160.47 166.80 +6.33 +3.9% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Neutral 04/10/14 32 85.10 88.23 .... .... NDX Equal Wt (QQEW) Neutral 04/11/14 31 35.34 36.90 .... .... S&P 100 (OEF) BUY 02/14/14 87 81.12 84.24 +3.12 +3.8% S&P 400 MidCp (IJH) BUY 11/28/12 530 97.22 137.17 +39.95 +41.1% S&P 600 SmlCp (IJR) Neutral 04/25/14 17 106.71 107.83 .... .... Total Market (VTI) BUY 12/10/12 518 70.89 98.27 +27.38 +38.6% Consumer Disc (XLY) Neutral 04/08/14 34 64.03 64.64 .... .... Cons Disc EWt (RCD) Neutral 04/11/14 31 75.86 78.34 .... .... Consumer Stpl (XLP) BUY 03/04/14 69 42.47 44.55 +2.08 +4.9% Cons Stpl EWt (RHS) BUY 02/20/14 81 89.95 95.31 +5.36 +6.0% Energy (XLE) BUY 02/24/14 77 87.28 94.33 +7.05 +8.1% Energy EWt (RYE) BUY 02/21/14 80 79.74 86.87 +7.13 +8.9% Financial (XLF) BUY 02/13/14 88 21.53 22.15 +0.62 +2.9% Financial EWt (RYF) BUY 02/12/14 89 38.91 40.90 +1.99 +5.1% Health Care (XLV) BUY 04/29/14 13 58.07 58.41 +0.34 +0.6% Health Cr EWt (RYH) BUY 05/09/14 3 116.24 118.04 +1.80 +1.5% Industrial (XLI) BUY 11/29/12 529 36.08 53.80 +17.72 +49.1% Industrl EWt (RGI) BUY 07/31/12 650 53.27 84.94 +31.67 +59.5% Materials (XLB) BUY 02/11/14 90 45.26 48.36 +3.10 +6.8% Materials EWt (RTM) BUY 02/13/14 88 78.48 82.69 +4.21 +5.4% Technology (XLK) BUY 01/04/13 493 28.82 36.82 +8.00 +27.8% Technolgy EWt (RYT) Neutral 05/06/14 6 77.91 79.53 .... .... Utilities (XLU) BUY 01/17/14 115 37.75 41.87 +4.12 +10.9% Utilities EWt (RYU) BUY 01/21/14 111 63.25 70.48 +7.23 +11.4% Average 169 +16.5% **************************************************************************** PMO CROSSOVER SIGNALS The PMO generates a BUY or SELL Signals when it crosses up or down through its 10EMA. These signals tend to be short-term in duration, but they can last for several weeks. Do not take them at face value because they can whipsaw quite a bit. They should be used to alert you to possible trading opportunities not used as a mechanical trading model. Always check our daily stock charts to verify the price pattern and the configuration of the PMO. Signals are best when price appears extended, is near support or resistance, SUMMARY OF PMO CROSSOVER SIGNALS BUY SELL Total Signals...: 21 6 % of Total......: 78% 22% Ave Days Elapsed: 10 14 Ave High Profit.: 1% 2% Ave Profit......: 0% 0% Percentage of PMOs Rising........: 85% Percentage of PMOs Above Zero....: 78% 05/12 Cal Close % Days High Today PMO Name Price Chg Sgnl Elap P/L P/L R/F Days ------------------- -------- ------ ---- ---- ------- ------- -------- S&P Equal Wt (RSP) 73.99 +1.1% BUY 0 0.0% -1.3% R 0 Total Market (VTI) 98.27 +1.1% BUY 0 0.0% -1.4% R 0 Cons Disc EWt (RCD) 78.34 +1.8% BUY 0 0.0% -2.5% R 3 Cons Stpl EWt (RHS) 95.31 +0.6% BUY 0 0.0% -2.0% R 3 Industrl EWt (RGI) 84.94 +1.8% BUY 0 0.0% -2.6% R 0 Financial (XLF) 22.15 +1.0% BUY 0 0.0% 0.1% R 5 Technolgy EWt (RYT) 79.53 +1.6% BUY 0 0.0% 0.6% R 3 Materials (XLB) 48.36 +1.3% BUY 7 1.2% 1.2% R 5 S&P 400 MidCp (IJH) 137.17 +1.4% BUY 10 0.9% 0.9% R 3 NDX Equal Wt (QQEW) 36.90 +1.7% BUY 11 1.1% 1.1% R 3 Consumer Disc (XLY) 64.64 +1.3% BUY 11 0.9% 0.9% R 3 Financial EWt (RYF) 40.90 +1.2% BUY 11 1.4% 1.4% R 5 Health Cr EWt (RYH) 118.04 +1.5% BUY 11 1.9% 1.9% R 3 Technology (XLK) 36.82 +1.3% BUY 12 1.0% 1.0% R 3 Health Care (XLV) 58.41 +1.0% BUY 14 1.2% 1.2% R 3 Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 88.23 +1.6% BUY 18 0.7% 0.7% R 3 S&P 500 (SPY) 189.79 +1.0% BUY 19 1.2% 1.2% R 0 S&P 100 (OEF) 84.24 +0.8% BUY 19 1.4% 1.4% R 3 Dow (DIA) 166.80 +0.7% BUY 20 1.2% 1.2% R 5 Industrial (XLI) 53.80 +1.5% BUY 21 1.7% 1.7% R 5 Consumer Stpl (XLP) 44.55 +0.1% BUY 26 2.1% 2.1% R 5 Energy EWt (RYE) 86.87 +0.9% SELL 3 0.0% -0.9% F 4 Energy (XLE) 94.33 +0.7% SELL 3 0.0% -0.7% F 4 Utilities EWt (RYU) 70.48 -0.8% SELL 6 1.3% 1.3% F 4 Utilities (XLU) 41.87 -0.9% SELL 7 2.4% 2.4% F 4 Materials EWt (RTM) 82.69 +1.5% SELL 17 0.7% -2.0% R 0 S&P 600 SmlCp (IJR) 107.83 +2.1% SELL 48 5.0% 2.2% R 0 Average +1.1% 11 1.0% 0.4% 3 ***************************************************************************** MARKET AND SECTOR INDEXES SORTED BY TODAY'S PERCENTAGE CHANGE 05/12 WTD MTD YTD Close $ %age %Price %Price %Price Name Price Change Chg Change Change Change ---------------- -------- -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ SP 600 SmlCp iSh 107.83 +2.25 +2.1% +2.1% +0.7% -1% Cons Disc EW 78.34 +1.35 +1.8% +1.8% +1.4% -2% Industrial EW 84.94 +1.50 +1.8% +1.8% +1.3% +4% NDX Equal Weight 36.90 +0.61 +1.7% +1.7% +1.5% +2% Technology EW 79.53 +1.28 +1.6% +1.6% +1.3% +3% Nasdaq 100 Shrs 88.23 +1.43 +1.6% +1.6% +1.0% +1% Industrial SP 53.80 +0.79 +1.5% +1.5% +1.5% +3% Materials EW 82.69 +1.23 +1.5% +1.5% +0.7% +4% Health Care EW 118.04 +1.80 +1.5% +1.5% +2.2% +7% SP 400 MidCp iSh 137.17 +1.94 +1.4% +1.4% +1.4% +3% Technology SP 36.82 +0.49 +1.3% +1.3% +1.0% +3% Consumer Disc SP 64.64 +0.80 +1.3% +1.3% +1.3% -3% Materials SP 48.36 +0.61 +1.3% +1.3% +1.4% +5% Financial EW 40.90 +0.49 +1.2% +1.2% +2.0% +4% SPX Equal Wt Ind 73.99 +0.81 +1.1% +1.1% +1.0% +4% Total Mkt Vipers 98.27 +1.10 +1.1% +1.1% +0.8% +3% Financial SP 22.15 +0.22 +1.0% +1.0% +0.9% +2% SP 500 SPDRs 189.79 +1.82 +1.0% +1.0% +0.8% +3% Health Care SP 58.41 +0.59 +1.0% +1.0% +0.5% +6% Energy EW 86.87 +0.77 +0.9% +0.9% 0.0% +8% SP 100 iShares 84.24 +0.70 +0.8% +0.8% +0.6% +3% Dow Indust SPDR 166.80 +1.08 +0.7% +0.7% +0.8% +1% Energy SP 94.33 +0.66 +0.7% +0.7% +0.6% +7% Cons Stpl EW 95.31 +0.59 +0.6% +0.6% +0.8% +6% Consumer Stpl SP 44.55 +0.04 +0.1% +0.1% +0.7% +4% Utilities EW 70.48 -0.60 -0.8% -0.8% -2.3% +12% Utilities SP 41.87 -0.39 -0.9% -0.9% -3.1% +11%
In the section for Strength Ranking, notice there are what we call "Hot/Cold Groups/Blinkers". These groups and "+" "-" symbols add even more dimension to the ranking. They tell you which way momentum is currently swinging. The definitions are at the bottom of the report, but let me go over each of the columns with you using samples from yesterday's report.
The PMO Rank is based on the PMO value, the higher the value, the stronger the momentum and internal strength of that index. The report also shows you how the rank has changed over the past 5 and 15 days. I also like that you can see the percentage price change not just for that day, but for the past 5 days and 15 days.
Let's look at the Hot/Cold Group and blinkers. The groups are on a scale of 1 to 6, with 1 being 'hottest' and 6 being 'coldest'. They are hot or cold based on their internal strength, price strength and rank strength. We can quickly assess the condition of these elements by the group number and "blinker" fields. Moving from left to right: The first blinker tells us if the PMO is above (+) or below (-) its10-day exponential moving average (EMA). The second blinker indicates if the closing price is above (+) or below (-) it's 20-DMA. The third and fourth blinkers tell us if the PMO is rising (+) or falling (-), and if it is above (+) or below (-) zero. The fifth blinker tells us if the 5-day PMO rank change is positive (+), negative (-), or the same ( ).
So if we look at the first row, the Energy cap-weighted sector is only in group 4, not so "hot". The blinkers reading across tell us the PMO is below its 10-EMA but its closing price is above its 20-DMA. The PMO is falling but it is above zero. In the past five days it has moved up in rank.
MARKET INDEXES RANKED BY STRENGTH
This section ranks market indexes by Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
relative strength so that we can observe rotational trends and identify the
sectors that are gaining or losing strength.
|-RankChg-| |---- % Price Change ----| Hot/Cold
PMO 5 15 On 5 15 Group &
Index Rank Day Day 05/12 Day Day YTD Blinkers
---------------- ---- ---- ---- ------ ----- ----- ------ |---------|
Energy SP 1 +1 +2 +0.7% 0% +1% +7% 4 -+ -+ +
Energy EW 2 +1 +2 +0.9% 0% +1% +8% 4 -+ -+ +
Utilities EW 3 -2 -2 -0.8% -2% 0% +12% 5 -- -+ -
Utilities SP 4 0 -2 -0.9% -2% -1% +11% 5 -- -+
Consumer Stpl SP 5 0 0 +0.1% +1% +2% +4% 1 ++ ++
Cons Stpl EW 6 0 0 +0.6% +1% +2% +6% 1 ++ ++
Industrial SP 7 0 +2 +1.5% +2% +2% +3% 1 ++ ++
Materials SP 8 +2 0 +1.3% +1% +2% +5% 1 ++ ++ +
Industrial EW 9 +2 +1 +1.8% +2% +2% +4% 1 ++ ++ +
SP 100 iShares 10 -1 +1 +0.8% +1% +2% +3% 2 ++ ++ -
Materials EW 11 -3 -4 +1.5% +1% +1% +4% 4 -+ ++ -
Dow Indust SPDR 12 0 0 +0.7% +1% +2% +1% 1 ++ ++
SP 500 SPDRs 13 0 +1 +1.0% +1% +1% +3% 3 +- ++
SPX Equal Wt Ind 14 0 -1 +1.1% +1% +2% +4% 1 ++ ++
Financial EW 15 +2 +2 +1.2% +2% +3% +4% 1 ++ ++ +
Technology SP 16 -1 -1 +1.4% +1% +2% +3% 2 ++ ++ -
Total Mkt Vipers 17 -1 -1 +1.1% +1% +1% +3% 2 ++ ++ -
Financial SP 18 0 0 +1.0% +1% +1% +2% 1 ++ ++
SP 400 MidCp iSh 19 +1 +2 +1.4% +1% +1% +3% 1 ++ ++ +
Health Care SP 20 -1 +4 +1.0% 0% +1% +6% 2 ++ ++ -
Health Care EW 21 0 +2 +1.6% +1% +3% +7% 1 ++ ++
Nasdaq 100 Shrs 22 +1 -3 +1.7% 0% +2% +1% 2 ++ +- +
Technology EW 23 -1 -3 +1.6% +1% 0% +3% 2 ++ +- -
Consumer Disc SP 24 +1 +2 +1.3% +1% +1% -3% 2 ++ +- +
Cons Disc EW 25 -1 0 +1.8% +1% +2% -2% 2 ++ +- -
NDX Equal Weight 26 +1 +1 +1.7% +1% +1% +2% 2 ++ +- +
SP 600 SmlCp iSh 27 -1 -5 +2.1% +1% -1% -1% 4 -+ +- -
Average +1.1% +1% +1% +4%
The final sections of the report summarize various indicators, seasonality, sentiment, etc. Also at the bottom, you will see the definitions for the columns of the report, including the hot/cold groups and blinkers, followed by caveats, copyright, etc.
************************* MARKET INDICATOR SUMMARY *************************
The purpose of this section is for an "at-a-glance" review of market
indicators. The ratings/signals are based on simple algorithms that analyze
arbitrary ranges and direction. ALWAYS LOOK AT THE CHARTS! The number to
the right of each signal is the number of calendar days for the signal.
PMO and PMM SIGNALS Dow S&P 500 NDX
----------------------------- -------- -------- --------
PMO Crossover Signal (Price): BUY 20 BUY 19 BUY 18
Price Momentum Model Signal.: BUY 934 BUY 934 BUY 447
SEASONALITY
-----------------------------
IT Seasonality..............: Unfavorable until 11/1/2014
ST Seasonality..............: Favorable from 5/22 to 5/26
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
-----------------------------
Wall Street Sentiment Survey: 20% Bulls 50% Bears (5/9)
AAII Investor...............: 28% Bulls 29% Bears (5/7)
Investors Intelligence......: 56% Bulls 20% Bears (5/2)
MISCELLANEOUS INDICATORS
-----------------------------
Adv Vol/Decl Vol............: 5.8 (9.0 or greater is very bullish)
10 DMA of Adv/Declines......: 1.50 (2.0 or greater is very bullish)
S&P 5-Day Price Momentum....: +0.6% (+7.5% or greater is very bullish)
1-Day Arms Index............: 0.64 (2.0 or greater is ST bullish)
10-DMA Arms Index...........: 1.10 (1.5 or greater is IT bullish)
***************************** CYCLE PROJECTIONS *****************************
Last Next Estimated Estimated Estimated
Cycle Projected Cycle Top Cycle Cycle Top
PRICE Count Low Cycle Low Bull Bias Mid-Point Bear Bias
------------------- -------- --------- --------- --------- ---------
5-Week Cycle......: 04/14/14 05/18/14 05/06/14 05/01/14 04/25/14
10-Week Cycle.....: 04/14/14 06/21/14 05/29/14 05/18/14 05/06/14
20-Week Cycle.....: 02/05/14 06/22/14 05/07/14 04/14/14 03/22/14
9-Month Cycle.....: 02/05/14 11/06/14 08/06/14 06/22/14 05/07/14
*****************************************************************************
DEFINITIONS Signl: The signal designations of BUY and SELL indicate the current direction of momentum and are not an indication that continuous buying or selling should take place. Cal Days Elap: Indicates the number of calendar days that have elapsed since the current signal was initiated. High P/L: Highest profit or least loss experienced since the current signal was initiated. On the first day of a new signal the P/L displayed is the closing P/L for the prior signal. Today P/L: Current profit or loss for the signal since it was initiated. On the first day of a new signal the P/L displayed is the closing P/L for the prior signal. The Hot/Cold grouping ranks securities/indexes into six (6) groups ranging from 1 (Hot) to 6 (Cold) according to price strength, internal strength, and relative strength. We can quickly assess the condition of these elements by the group number and "blinker" fields. Moving from left to right: The first blinker tells us if the PMO is above (+) or below (-) its 10-day exponential moving average (EMA). The second blinker indicates if the closing price is above (+) or below (-) it's 20-DMA. The third and fourth blinkers tell us if the PMO is rising (+) or falling (-), and if it is above (+) or below (-) zero. The fifth blinker tells us if the 5-day PMO rank change is positive (+), negative (-), or no change ( ). Groups 1-3 should be considered as buy candidates, 4-6 as sell candidates. ***************************************************************************** CAVEAT We make every effort to insure the accuracy of this information, but we cannot guarantee it. It is always possible that errors will creep in. If it doesn't make sense, let us know about it. Also, we make every effort to upload this data each market day, but it may not be possible due to circumstances beyond our control. ***************************************************************************** INFORMATION HEREIN IS INTENDED TO ASSIST RESEARCH AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. ***************************************************************************** End of DecisionPoint Alert Daily Report for Monday, 5/12/2014. Copyright 2014 StockCharts.com. This publication is not to be summarized, reproduced, or rebroadcast in any fashion without our written permission.
This report is available to paid subscribers only. Remember the DP Alert Daily Report is published after the market close everyday and can be found in the DP Reports blog.
Happy Charting,
Erin
