Top Advisors Corner

Dealing with Dollar Strength

by David Keller

As the US Dollar continues to strengthen, it’s worth revisiting the bullish thesis to evaluate potential future paths.  Overall, the Dollar remains in a positive configuration with further upside in the UUP to around 25.35. Back in late April, we reviewed the breakout in the Dollar using this chart of the Bullish Dollar ETF (UUP). The trendline breakout lined up with a bullish divergence from the weekly MACD and a confirmation from the weekly RSI.  The weekly Fibonacci retracement gave us an upside objective of around 24.50. We then looked at the daily Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: A Fresh Look at Lumber and Housing Stocks

by Tom McClellan

  For a few years now, I have been employing lumber prices as a leading indicator for what the homebuilding sector of the stock market would do, and it has worked pretty well.  But lately the correlation is broken, with housing stock prices falling even as lumber said they were supposed to continue trending higher.  So it’s time to reevaluate the hypothesis about lumber giving a leading indication. In the past, I have found that a lag time of just over a year worked to show how the HGX’s movements tended to match the earlier ones in lumber.  That Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: What Happened to the Presidential Cycle?

by Tom McClellan

If this were a “normal” 2nd year of a presidential term, we would now be in a corrective period due to last until just before the mid-term elections.  But as many in the press have noted, we do not have a “normal” presidency, and the market is not tracing out a perfect normal pattern.  Years ago, I first constructed a Presidential Cycle Pattern by averaging together multiple years’ worth of data on the SP500.  One difference I chose to make in this process, versus the work of others, is that I started each year on the anniversary of the November federal elections.  Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Bitcoin Still Blazing Trail for Stocks

by Tom McClellan

 Back in January, I introduced readers to the revelation that all throughout 2017, the DJIA had been following in the footsteps of Bitcoin prices, with a lag time of about 8 weeks (56 calendar days).  And it continues working even now, albeit with a slight adjustment. Why would this relationship work?  My answer is that there are cycles of human emotion which affect our collective attraction to and repulsion from speculative investments like the stock market.  It appears that those same cycles of trader emotion are at work on Bitcoin traders, who are feeling those Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Gold/Silver Ratio

by Tom McClellan

 The ratio of gold prices versus silver prices is now up to the type of high reading that in the past 2 decades has marked an important low for both gold and silver prices.  The value of anything is always and in every case a ratio.  Most often the units are expressed as dollars per ounce, dollars per bushel, dollars per share, etc.  But expressing the price of an ounce of gold as being equivalent to 80 ounces of silver is perfectly legitimate.  We can understand the implications of the dollar price of something being expensive or cheap; it takes a little bit Read More