US Dollar Bear Market


The US Dollar has declined rather sharply over the past 2-weeks, which given the scope of the decline - has likely pushed it into a bear market. The reasons for this could be myriad; or simply that the Fed will continue upon the bond-buying campaign far longer than the consensus believes. Now, this doesn't mean they will not taper, but perhaps the new Fed Chairman will extend this campaign through 2014...which means that the market is pricing the appointment of Vice Chair Yellen as the Fed Chairwoman.

Usd 6-15-13

Regardless, the technical picture is breaking down. The decline has violated the flattening 180-day moving average, which in the past has led on balance to more significant declines. Moreover, the 40-day stochastic has turned lower in negative divergence with prices. This posits a continuation of the current weakness, with major support at 79 the short-term target. Longer-term, one can expect a test of the lows at 73 to materialize soon and perhaps faster than anyone anticipates.

Therefore, sell USD rallies. Our favorite currency to the upside...the Swiss Franc.

Good luck and good trading,

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