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Solar Stocks Go Dark

by Bruce Fraser

Since mid-May the renewable energy stocks have tumbled. This may have come as an unexpected surprise to many. Let's do a mini-blog case study of the Dow Jones Renewable Energy Equipment Index ($DWCREE) to determine if there was advance warning of trouble brewing. As Wyckoffians we are really in the dark here as volume is not available. To shed some light on this problem, look at two actively  Read More

This Industry Group Tries To Clear Resistance For The 23rd Time; Dow Futures Tumble

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, June 18, 2018 Trade war fears are picking up again this morning and it's rattling equities worldwide.  It created a bit of a stir on Monday morning as futures were weak, signaling a rough start for U.S. equities.  That's exactly what we saw as the Dow Jones opened down well over 200 points.  The good news is that buyers stepped up throughout the session  Read More

The BIG picture in ONE picture

by Julius de Kempenaer

Note 1: This article was posted earlier as part of the ChartWatchers newsletter last weekend. One paragraph and an up-to-date daily version of the Relative Rotation Graph for asset classes has been added to the bottom of this article. Note 2: A pre-populated universe for Asset Allocation has been added to the Groups drop-down. Relative Rotation Graphs® originally emerged out of my  Read More

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The Single Biggest Influence on Individual Stocks

by Arthur Hill

Correction Time? XLI and XLF Resume their Lagging Ways. Charting the Big Five Sectors. Watch the Risk-Off Assets. On Trend and Stocks to Watch. The Single Biggest Influence on Individual Stocks There are several influences on the price of an individual stock, but one influence rises far above the others. Using the S&P 500 as the proxy for the stock market, price  Read More

6/18 MWL Recap - Monday Set-Ups - Earnings Spotlight - DecisionPoint Report

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Energy Leads Market Lower, Watch These Two Support Levels

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, June 15, 2018 We finished Friday's action with lower major indices, primarily the result of a very weak energy sector (XLE, -2.15%).  Unfortunately, that masked one of the best absolute and relative performance days in consumer staples (XLP, +1.28%) since the January high.  Technically, the XLP looks the best it's looked since January.  We're  Read More

Ross Stores Stalls after Breakout

by Arthur Hill

Ross Stores was hit hard with a high volume gap down in late May, but immediately firmed and recovered. The stock broke out of a long triangle in early June and then stalled with a small flag last week. Basically, we have two bullish continuation patterns at work.   The long-term trend is up because the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA and the stock recorded a 52-week high last Monday  Read More

Commodities Get Smoked 2018-06-15 - Video

by Greg Schnell

Well, after the big buildup of the last two recordings, we saw the dramatic climax to the big buildup in tension. Oil, Gasoline, Heating oil, Copper, Steel, Aluminum, Rare earth metals, Coal, Natural Gas stocks, Gold and Silver all had a bad week. With the G7 meeting, the Singapore summit, another Fed meeting on Wednesday, Mario Draghi speaking on Thursday and Quadruple Witching Options  Read More

The BIG picture in ONE picture

by Julius de Kempenaer

Relative Rotation Graphs® originally emerged out of my work on sector (rotation) analysis while employed as a sell-side analyst providing services to institutional clients. Shortly after the first introduction as a tool to visualize sector-rotation a lot of other possibilities to use RRGs sprung to mind. One of the first ideas was to use a Relative Rotation Graph at the highest level of an  Read More

6/15 MWL Recap - Guest Co-Host Arthur Hill - Seasonal Doldrums - DP Sentiment Report

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Historic High on NAAIM Exposure - NDX Scoreboard All Buy Signals

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, the weekly charts went "final". With that finalization, the NDX which had been carrying a positive Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossover throughout the week, finally posted the IT PMO BUY signal on its DP Scoreboard. Additionally, sentiment charts were very interesting this week. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) posted the 3rd highest market exposure  Read More

Some Consumer Staples Stocks Start Hitting Scans

by Greg Schnell

I ran some scans this morning looking for some new breakouts to 1-year highs. With the market pushing up for the last month, these food companies are starting to accelerate. First, Archer Daniels Midland is breaking out to new three year highs. Pinnacle Foods is breaking out above prior year highs. Nomad Foods (NOMD) has a nice chart that looks like it is starting to reaccelerate. If you  Read More

Relative Strength Is Your Guide To A Winning Stock Portfolio

by Tom Bowley

It seems simple enough.  Buy stocks/ETFs that are outperforming the benchmark S&P 500.  Well, that's part of it for sure.  But it really goes a lot deeper than that.  StockCharts.com provides you a myriad of ways to evaluate relative strength.  I tend to use relative ratios most of the time so I'll focus on this method in my article.  As an example, let's  Read More

Two Continuation Patterns Take Shape in XLI

by Arthur Hill

The Industrials SPDR (XLI) has struggled in 2018 and is pretty much unchanged year-to-date. Despite flat performance this year, a pair of bullish continuation patterns are taking shape. Let's look at the key levels to watch going forward. Long-term, the trend is still up because the PPO(50,200,0) is positive, which means the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA. The ETF also recorded a 52-week  Read More

Organizing Your Trading Strategy By Trend Strength (Or, How to Make Sense of Jim Cramer's Stock Picks)

by Tushar Chande

If you watch Jim Cramer's Mad Money show on CNBC for a week, you will hear about so many stock picks (symbols) that it might drive you crazy.  He spews so many symbols, that in a month's time you will  be easily overwhelmed.  So here is a useful chart to put into perspective any stock picks you encounter in the mass media or blogs such as this one.   Chart 1:  The  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Market Still Strong

by Carl Swenlin

The bearish rising wedge formation we had been watching resolved upward last week, though not by a decisive margin. This week price reached, then retreated from horizontal resistance, forming a top which created a new rising wedge formation. In spite of the modest pullback early Friday, price was virtually unchanged by the close. Again, let me remind you that the very high SPX volume on Friday  Read More

Dovish ECB Offsets Hawkish Fed

by John Murphy

Editors Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, June 14th at 11:39am EST. The Fed raised its short-term rate by a quarter point yesterday as expected. But it also added a fourth rate hike this year which gave its announcement a more hawkish tilt. That had the immediate effect of boosting Treasury bond yields and weakening bond  Read More

Shorting Stocks that Miss Earnings Expectations

by John Hopkins

  I have found over many years of trading that it is so much more difficult to make money shorting stocks than going long. With the exception of the Dot.com bubble between 2000-2002 and the bear market of 2008-2009 during the Great Recession we've been in a bull market for a long time and trying to short stocks in a bull market is like pulling teeth. However, just like it makes sense to  Read More

Tale of the Tape

by Bruce Fraser

As Wyckoffians we often generate a hypothesis regarding the forces that propel stocks and industry groups higher (or lower). Homebuilders enjoyed a major uptrend in 2016-17.  In this case study from 2016; interest rates were near historically low levels, thus we could conclude that home purchases would be stimulated. And homebuilding stocks should rally. The Wyckoff Method  Read More

Stop! Don't Touch It! Let It Go! Quit Tinkering!

by Grayson Roze

I've seen this play out time and time again at seminars, conferences, lectures, and courses. Remarkably, the conversation always begins with the exact same seemingly harmless five-word question: "But what if you just" Those five words prompt me to step up on the soapbox and launch into the "tinkering talk".  A recurring discussion at the various investing presentations I give, this  Read More

Pullback Rally Analysis

by Greg Morris

The Pullback Rally Analysis is not a ranking measure but a technique for determining the relative strength of issues by looking at the most recent rally from a previous pullback.  Measure the amount of the pullback in percent, then measure the current rally up to the current date in percent.  The concept is fairly simple, those issues which dropped the least in the pullback, will  Read More

Talk About Hot? This Sector Has Risen Every Day In June

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, June 14, 2018 Utilities (XLU, +1.24%) led a bifurcated market on Thursday, but the real story of June has been consumer discretionary (XLY, +1.04%).  The XLY has not only posted gains each of the 10 trading days in June thus far, but it's also closed above its open in each of those days as well.  I can't recall the last time I've seen that happen and it  Read More

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Weekly Market Review and Outlook (w/ Video) - Summer Doldrums for Stocks, but Not Bonds

by Arthur Hill

S&P 500 Digest Short-term Gains. QQQ Leads with New High Expansion. IJR Stalls above Breakout Zone. Three Big Leaders and Two Laggards. XLF Turns Down from Resistance. XLI Tests Flag Breakout. XLV Extends on Breakout. Bonds Get a Bounce. USO Slowly Bounces off Key Retracement. The Noose Tightens for Gold Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Summer Doldrums for Stocks, but  Read More

6/14 MWL Recap - "Personal Trading Workflow" with Bill Shelby - Momentum Sleepers

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Does JP Morgan (JPM) Repeat Last Years Performance?

by Greg Schnell

JPM has been drifting lower since March 2018. While it is still about the 40 week moving average, it is definitely not one of the stronger stocks out there. The SCTR has dropped to 40, which is near the lowest levels on the chart. While there is a topping structure on the chart, the question approaching is: Will the neckline hold? Interestingly enough, JPM had almost the identical chart pattern  Read More

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DOVISH ECB OFFSETS HAWKISH FED -- DROP IN EURO BOOSTS DOLLAR

by John Murphy

ECB WON'T RAISE RATES FOR ANOTHER YEAR The Fed raised its short-term rate by a quarter point yesterday as expected. But it also added a fourth rate hike this year which gave its announcement a more hawkish tilt. That had the immediate effect of boosting Treasury bond yields and weakening bond proxies like utilities and REITS. Bank stocks, however, ended in the red after an early  Read More

Netflix Jumps To Record, But Fed Rate Hike Weighs On Stocks

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, June 13, 2018 Another Fed day is in the rear view mirror and now we know the following.  The Fed expects to raise interest rates two more times in 2018, bringing the total number of hikes to 4, as opposed to the 3 they discussed in prior meetings.  Also, they describe the expected pace of economic growth to be "solid", replacing the "modest" wording in  Read More

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A Mean-Rervsion Opp in Gasoline - Inside Weeks for Gold - A Peak for REITs

by Arthur Hill

Gasoline ETF Firms after Pullback Notes on RSI Parameters and Levels Three Inside Weeks for Gold Bollinger Contractions for GLD and GDX Dollar Gets Extended Unadjusted REIT SPDR Hits Reversal Zone Questions, Comments or Feedback? Gasoline ETF Firms after Pullback The US Gasoline ETF ($UGA) has a mean-reversion setup working as RSI dipped into the oversold zone and the ETF  Read More

6/13 MWL Recap - Richard Bensignor's "Five Key Steps to Profitable Investing & Trading"

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

6/12 MWL Recap - PPO Trading Secrets - MWL Question Bank

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

DP Alert: Short-Term Bearish Indicators - Gold Decouples from Dollar

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards remain bullish, except for intermediate-term PMO SELL signals. Those should be replaced by BUY signals soon as all four indexes have rising PMOs. In fact, the NDX already has the PMO positive crossover on its weekly chart, it just has to remain by the close on Friday when the chart goes final. The market is stalling at resistance and our short-term indicators are  Read More

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What Is The Gold Price Telling Us About The Stock Market?

by Martin Pring

Stocks are rising against gold and that's bullish The long-term trend points to gold under-performing stocks Stock/Gold ratio breaks out from a right-angled broadening formation The price of gold, over the short-term, typically rises and falls on global tensions or lack thereof. Longer-term trends though, are more influenced by the expectations of market participants on future inflationary  Read More

Rockwell Automation: A Big Correction, but an Even Bigger Advance

by Arthur Hill

Rockwell Automation reversed its downtrend with a big surge in May, worked off overbought conditions and looks poised to resume its uptrend. The chart below shows ROK with a high-volume plunge in late April, a high-volume reversal day and a sharp recovery in early May.  This recovery extended with high volume as the stock broke above the April high. The strength of this advance leads me to  Read More

Bull Market Resumption Awakens The Hibernating Industries; We're Going Higher Folks

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, June 12, 2018 The Dow Jones lost one point yesterday, but our other key indices finished with gains, led higher by the NASDAQ (+0.57%) and small cap Russell 2000 (+0.46%).  It was another boring day of bullish action with perhaps one slight negative - utilities (XLU, +1.15%) led the climb.  I'm happy to ignore that defensive posturing as it really resulted  Read More

Norfolk Southern (NSC) Brakes At New Highs

by Greg Schnell

Norfolk Southern put in a weak break to new highs today. In the zoom box on the right, the candle was a nice clean break out but at the end of the day, it had fully reversed and closed lower than the open.  It did close up compared to Monday, so it will show as bullish volume, but its a little suspect.  A few things to note on the chart. The MACD is making a lower high here as the  Read More

Real Estate Sector SPDR (XLRE) Shows LT New Bullish Bias

by Erin Swenlin

I have alerts set on my ChartList of sector SPDRs that alert me to Trend Model and PMO signal changes (Check our Support area for directions on how to set these). Today the alarm triggered when the Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) had a Long-Term Trend Model BUY signal. An LT Trend Model BUY signal is a 50-EMA positive  Read More

Distribution

by Greg Morris

Distribution is the term often referred to as the topping process in the stock market.  Before we go any further I want to say this loud and clear:  I am not calling a top in the market.  As you hopefully know by now I am just a humble trend follower.  Calling tops and bottoms in the market is generally left to the market timers and those who never trade; only analyze.   Read More

Technology sector rotating back to leading while Discretionary/Staples spread widens further

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph shows the rotation of the ten S&P 500 sector ETFs (SPDR family) against the S&P 500 index ETF (SPY). The rotation of the technology sector (XLK) back into the leading quadrant after a short period of rotation through the weakening quadrant is s strong sign. The spread between the Consumer Discretionary- and Consumer Staples sectors continues to widen further  Read More

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On Trend Preview - Finance Sector and Big Banks Lag as Fed Looms

by Arthur Hill

Two Breakout Zones to Watch on SPY. On Trend Preview. TLT Affirms Resistance. Banks and Utilities Cue off Bond Market. Finance Sector and Big Banks Continue to Lag. Aetna Breaks Out of Bull Flag. Questions, Comments or Feedback? Two Zones to Watch on SPY The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) broke out twice in the last two months and these zones now mark support levels going forward.  Read More

Expect Small Caps To Continue To Provide Leadership

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, June 11, 2018 U.S indices finished with across-the-board gains on Monday despite a final 30 minute selloff that saw the Dow Jones trim a 70 point gain down to just 5 points.  Still, stocks managed to start the week with minor gains ahead of a historic meeting between a sitting U.S. President and North Korea.  Consumer stocks were strong with consumer staples  Read More