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4/26 MWL Recap - Erin's Workshop on Moving Averages - Tom on Correlation

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

DP Bulletin #3: NDX PMO Whipsaws Back to a BUY

by Erin Swenlin

Not surprisingly, the NDX which had triggered a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) SELL yesterday, whipsawed into a new PMO BUY Signal. With a rally that moved price higher by 2.08%, the PMO was jerked back up. Unfortunately, the margin remains thin between the PMO and its signal line so the NDX could see another whipsaw on the PMO back to a SELL signal. I'll send out another bulletin tomorrow if  Read More

AbbVie Surges (ABBV)

by Greg Schnell

AbbVie shot up on the open this morning with a really nice surge. The stock had been enjoying a beautiful uptrend but hit some turbulence in March. With today's move above the recent base, this looks set to resume.  The volume was exceptionally strong with over 10 million shares traded. Some of the nice technical features include the tight trading range before this recent pop. The MACD is  Read More

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NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET REBOUND -- FACEBOOK LEADS TECH SECTOR HIGHER

by John Murphy

NASDAQ 100 LEADS MARKET REBOUND Stocks are enjoying a rebound today off chart support near 200-day moving average lines. And the Nasdaq is leading it higher. Chart 1 shows the PowerShares Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rising 2% today to outpace other stock indexes. After finding support from just above its 200-day moving average yesterday (red arrow), the QQQ gapped higher this  Read More

Will Today's Earnings-Related Gap Higher Break Through Key Resistance?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, April 25, 2018 Wall Street was able to find equity buyers yesterday, despite the 10 year treasury yield's ($TNX) first close above 3.00% since 2014.  The Volatility Index ($VIX) settled back down after approaching 20 for the second consecutive day.  It has closed well off its intraday highs both days, however, and that could be a signal of a short-term top  Read More

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Sector Splits Divide Broader Market - Plus Banks, Energy-Related ETFs, Telcos and Four Stocks

by Arthur Hill

SPY Tests Upswing Support. Finance Sector Holds Up Best. Two Down and Three to Go. KRE Still Looking Positive. Bullish Continuation Patterns in Energy-Related ETFs. A Few Telcos Come Alive. Four Stocks to Watch. SPY Tests Upswing Support I marked upswing support for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the five big sectors in Tuesday's commentary. The Technology SPDR (XLK) and  Read More

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Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad 3%?

by Martin Pring

Technical position for yields still looks bullish International rates look higher Dollar breaks out, but will it hold? Finely balanced Gold picture needs some guidance from the Dollar If you have punched up the symbol $TNX, you will know that the 10-year yield has recently hit 3%. Chances are that you would have already known this fact, because it has been transmitted widely  Read More

4/25 MWL Recap - Guest, Gatis Roze - Chart Breakdowns!

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

DP Bulletin #2: NDX Logs New PMO SELL Signal

by Erin Swenlin

All four DecisionPoint Scoreboard indexes logged ST Trend Model SELL signals yesterday and now the NDX has added insult to injury with a new PMO SELL signal. This SELL signal was generated when the NDX Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) crossed below its signal line. Below is the daily chart for the NDX. I've pointed out both SELL signals. Looking from a distance at this chart, I think you could  Read More

QQQ: Breakdown, Mean-Reversion Opportunity or Both?

by Arthur Hill

The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) broke down with a sharp decline the last five days and this pushed RSI(5) below 30 for a short-term oversold reading. The breakdown is bearish, but it has also created a short-term mean-reversion opportunity.  I first introduced a mean-reversion trading system using RSI in June 2016. This system evolved over the next few months as I turned to the Chandelier Exit  Read More

The Bears Are Making A Run For The Roses

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, April 24, 2018 Pre-market action on Tuesday was solid and that's just about where the bullishness ended.  With the Kentucky Derby just around the corner, let me summarize Tuesday's action from the opening bell in different fashion:  "And they're off!  Caterpillar and Bullish Action storm out of the gate, but are quickly overtaken by  Read More

DP Bulletin: ST Trend Model SELL Signals on NDX, Dow, SPX & OEX

by Erin Swenlin

This is a bulletin to let you know that the DecisionPoint Short-Term Trend Model has generated new SELL signals for all four indexes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. After the sizable decline to finish off today, the 5-EMAs all tumbled below the 20-EMAs. The 20-EMAs were  below the 50-EMA so it generated SELL signals rather than Neutral signals. If you haven't read  Read More

4/24 MWL Recap - "Inside the Lines" - SCTR Report - "What Would You Do?"

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Ever Had A Bulldozer Drive Over Your Portfolio?

by Greg Schnell

Today Caterpillar reported great earnings with almost $1 Billion beat on revenues. Huge. But the CFO mentioned that they are wondering if this might mark peak earnings for the cycle. Whoops! The corresponding move in other Industrial stocks was swift. Deere and Co, Cummins, the XLI SPDR Industrial ETF; and Finning - Caterpillars largest dealer are shown. What makes this more  Read More

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INDUSTRIALS, MATERIALS, AND TECHNOLOGY PULL MARKET LOWER AS TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD TOUCHES 3% -- MAJOR STOCK INDEXES ARE ALSO HEADING INTO ANOTHER TEST OF SUPPORT

by John Murphy

SECTOR ETFS TAKE A BIG HIT The three stock ETFs shown below are leading the stock market sharply lower. Chart 1 shows the Industrial SPDR (XLI) losing more than 3% and once again threatening its 200-day average. Caterpillar (CAT) is one of its biggest losers with a drop of -6%. Chart 2 shows the Materials SPDR (XLB) falling back below its 200-day line. Freeport McMoran (FCX) is its  Read More

Dollar Makes Major Breakout; What That Means For Investment Allocation

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for April 23, 2018 A significant bullish breakout in the U.S. Dollar ($USD) occurred on Monday and the push higher is likely to just be beginning.  Before I look at possible ramifications, let's look at the chart itself: Monday's close was the USD's highest since mid-January.  A breakout could hurt performance of the S&P 500 over the next few months as a higher dollar  Read More

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Monitoring the Swings in SPY and the 5 Big Sectors - Plus KRE, GOOGL, NKE, UNH and BAC

by Arthur Hill

SPY Pulls Back within Channel. Monitoring Upswings in the Big Sectors. Regional Bank ETF Extends Short-term Bounce. Smelly SOXX. Google Holds the Gap. Nike Forms Flag within Triangle. SPY Pulls Back within Channel There are three stages to a trend reversal. First, there is the bottom picking stage when momentum oscillators become oversold and/or prices start to firm. Second  Read More

Short-Term Swenlin Trading Oscillator Divergence Could be a Serious Warning Sign

by Erin Swenlin

There was one indicator that gave us a very good warning sign just prior to the Jan/Feb correction. The same warning sign is flashing right now. The Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STOs) have a breadth version and a volume version. When we see divergent tops on these indicators, bad things tend to happen.  These indicators topped and began moving lower out of overbought territory which is  Read More

4/23 MWL Recap - Monday Set-Ups - Earnings Spotlight - DecisionPoint Report

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Costco Breaks Triangle Line with Big Gap

by Arthur Hill

Costco (COST) is showing some upside leadership this year with a triangle breakout and challenge to the January high.  Long-term trend identification is important because it sets my bias going forward. My bias is bullish when the long-term trend is up and this means I favor bullish patterns over bearish patterns. The overall trend is clearly up because Costco hit a 52-week high earlier  Read More

Two Bad Apples Don't Spoil The Whole Market Bunch

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, April 20, 2018 The big news on Friday was the bond market.  The 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) closed just a tad above 2.95% and that was the highest close since late-2013/early-2014.  The TNX has climbed another couple basis points in early action this morning.  Higher treasury yields can be interpreted differently by different technicians.  For me,  Read More

Article Summaries: 12/2017 - 4/2018

by Greg Morris

Periodically I write an article that reviews the past few months of articles.  Why on Earth would I do this?  Primarily for two reasons.  One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles.  Two is that my articles are rarely tied to anything that is happening in the markets.  Generally, they are about experiences I  Read More

Jumping the Creek. A Review.

by Bruce Fraser

Let's review the concept of the 'Creek'. This is a nuanced Wyckoff principle, but once understood, it becomes a very powerful trading edge. Support and Resistance zones are typically understood to exert their influence at linear price levels. Horizontal lines are drawn on charts to represent these important levels. Wyckoffians employ Support and Resistance zones in chart analysis with fervor.  Read More

Have You Noticed this Trend In Corrections?

by Greg Schnell

Earnings season happens four times a year. January, April, July and October. While most of us know that the bulk of earnings come out in those months, there are still a lot of stocks that deliver results between earnings periods. The topic for today is to share a pattern that sometimes sets up around earnings periods for the last 8 years. Essentially, as the earnings month draws to a close, the  Read More

The CMT Association Symposium 2018 Review

by Greg Schnell

As I write this article, I am sitting in the mountains, watching a glass smooth lake warm up in the morning sun. The only ripple is caused by an eagle tormenting some birds sitting in the water. It's a long, long way from the bustle of New York City but its a great place to reflect and review the learnings from this years CMT Association conference. Each year for the last 7 years, I have  Read More

Bloomberg Commodity Index Testing Its 2018 High -- Upside Commodity Breakout Would Signal Higher Inflation -- Rising Commodity Prices Push Bond Yields Higher

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in  John Murphy's Market Message on Thursday, April 19th at 12:11pm ET BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX IS NEAR AN UPSIDE BREAKOUT This week's surge in commodity prices is starting to attract a lot of attention. That's because rising commodity prices are a leading  Read More

Go Away In May? Not If You Own This NASDAQ 100 Stock

by Tom Bowley

One of the most over used cliches in the stock market, in my opinion, is "go away in May".  First of all, it's simply bad investment advice.  Since 1950 on the S&P 500, the May 1st to July 17th period has produced annualized returns of 6.00%.  So if you decide to "go away in May", where will you park your long-term money in today's environment and beat 6%?  Granted, that  Read More

Three Strike Trend Following with the PPO

by Arthur Hill

The Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) is mostly used as a momentum oscillator, but chartists can also use it to define the trend, even the long-term trend. Chartists interested in trend signals can simply ignore the wiggles and the signal line, and instead focus on zero line crossovers.  As noted in ChartSchool, the  Read More

Market Hits Resistance (Also: Did you Suffer from Portfolio Diversification Malfunction?)

by Tushar Chande

The market rose into resistance and pulled back a bit, even as the short-term trend picture improved significantly.  The reported earnings were strong, but manged to disappoint some traders.  On a different note,  I explore the performance of bonds, gold and commodities in providing diversification during this year's decline (hint: the results may surprise you).   Chart 1:  Read More

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Is The Breakout In The Dollar For Real?

by Martin Pring

The primary trend The short-term picture The Dollar, Copper and Gold The Dollar Index showed some green shoots at the end of the week that might lead to greater things. That's important in its own right, but since the dollar often moves inversely with commodities and gold its direction has wider implications than purely the currency pits and bank trading rooms. The primary  Read More

What a Trip! PMO Finds Two Travel & Tourism Stocks Poised To Take Off

by Erin Swenlin

This afternoon I ran one of my PMO scans (you'll find the link to my most popular scan in the link at the bottom of this article) and found two Travel & Tourism stocks that I found quite interesting. What I look for are Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) readings that are rising or have had a positive crossover along with a favorable price chart. TripAdvisor (TRIP) and Booking  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Technology Whipsaw

by Carl Swenlin

The technology sector (XLK) switched from NEUTRAL to BUY on Thursday, but reversed from BUY to NEUTRAL on Friday. The problem is that recent sideways price movement has squeezed the 20EMA and 50EMA very close together, and price movement above or below the EMAs can cause whipsaw signals. To review, our Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) changes to BUY when the 20EMA crosses up through the  Read More

4/20 MWL Recap - Tom's Workshop: Trading Breakouts v. Consolidation - Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

Can Financials Soar If Bonds Yield Rise Above 3%?

by Greg Schnell

Financials have been down and out recently but the last two days they showed some resiliency in the face of broader selling.  The Bank Index looks set to turn higher. Widening out the picture, since 2016, the rising rates shown on the $TNX chart have created sudden moves on the $DJUSBK index. I posted an article in Don't Ignore This Chart Friday afternoon with this price chart of the TLT  Read More

It's all About Reward to Risk

by John Hopkins

Anytime we issue a trade alert to members at EarningsBeats it must carry a minimum reward to risk of at least 2 to 1. In fact we rarely consider getting involved in a trade unless the potential reward to risk is at least 3 to 1 or higher. The concept of reward to risk is simple; we don't want to put capital at risk unless it's worth while. This means there needs to be a disproportionate upside  Read More

Bond Prices Look Set To Break Down Meaningfully

by Greg Schnell

Bond prices are rolling over at a critical place on the charts. This sends yields higher. The big 5 year picture shows the delicate place where the bonds prices are falling. It is a perfect head/shoulders top with declining momentum on each push up. This is shown on the MACD. Also, notice the MACD gave a sell signal on Friday's close and closed below the 10 Week Moving Average.  While  Read More

An Organized Process to Navigate the Markets - ChartPack Update #19 (Q1, 2018)

by Gatis Roze

In the 18 years I've been teaching investors to grow their wealth, I believe I can simplify it down to two basic prerequisites for success.  Despite all the clatter, prattle and bluster that increasingly emanates from the financial industry, individual investors can multiply their probability of success many times over by grasping two essentials.  I've witnessed that the investors who  Read More

All eyes on the CAT

by Julius de Kempenaer

Yesterday, Thursday 19th of April, it was my turn again to join Tom and Erin in their Market Watchers Live show again. By the way, I will be joining them every third Thursday of the month to talk about RRG and talk about market developments from an RRG point of view. My idea for yesterday's show was to talk the audience through some of the rationales behind my  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - The Range Narrows

by Arthur Hill

A Narrowing Range for the S&P 500. Monitoring the Upswing in SPY. Raff Regression Channel Explained. QQQ Weathers Semiconductor Weakness. IJR Challenges Rim Resistance. Big Wedge and Little Wedge in XLF. XLY, XLK and XLI Lead the Big Sectors. SOXX Fails to Hold Breakout. Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. A Narrowing Range for the S&P 500 The S&P 500 sums up  Read More

Treasury Yields Spike; TNX Threatens 4+ Year High, Banks Soar

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, April 19, 2018 The U.S. stock market has been solid throughout April thus far, so seeing a Thursday drop of 0.57% and 0.78% on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, respectively, shouldn't be too alarming.  And it wasn't.  But yesterday was not a day of across-the-board fractional losses.  There was major strength in some areas and serious selling in others  Read More