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Latest Posts

Recent Pullback in Commodities Is Likely Tied to Stock Correction

by John Murphy

My January 27 message wrote about a bullish breakout in commodity prices to the highest level in two years. I took that as another sign that inflation pressures were starting to build. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that bullish breakout taking place in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (circled area). During February, however, commodity prices have sold off enough to call that upside breakout  Read More

A Model For S&P 500 Bottoms (Are We There Yet?)

by Tushar Chande

Here I explore recent key lows and bottoming patterns in the S&P 500 in order to understand how they may apply to the current market decline. Naturally, the past may give us clues, but there is always uncertainty about how the bottom will form this time.  For obvious reasons, I will ignore "V" bottoms, that often form during up-trends, since they require no further elaboration.    Read More

Big Scores Made Possible through Extreme Patience

by John Hopkins

I'm sure most traders get tired of being told to be patient when the market or a specific stock is climbing day after day. Missing out on nice rallies can be extremely frustrating. But if there ever was a time when patience paid off big time it was over the past few weeks. Before I share the results of some recent trade results with you I want to point out our formula at Earnings Beats, because  Read More

Natural Gas In February - Yes Really

by Greg Schnell

Natural Gas has been testing the $2.60 level for two weeks now. I have placed arrows around the centre of the first quarter in each of the last six years. By watching Natural Gas closely right now, there can be a great 4-6 week trading opportunity that is not correlated to the equity market indexes.  Zooming in on the daily, Natural Gas is testing the lows. I have included the Commodity  Read More

History And Fibonacci Say We Topped On Friday

by Tom Bowley

Fear ramped up with the early February selling and a capitulatory bottom (at least short-term) printed.  The Volatility Index ($VIX) doesn't hit the 40-50 zone often and, when it does, it typically coincides with a panicked selloff and bottom.  The last time we saw panicked selling (before the past few weeks) was in August 2015.  Let's take a trip down memory lane: The drop was a  Read More

Where Did All Those New Lows Come From?

by Arthur Hill

Stocks rebounded this week as the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index ($SPXEW) recovered most of the losses from the previous week. On a closing basis, the index fell around 10% in nine days and then recovered around half of this loss with a 5.4% gain the last six days   What a ride! Despite the strong recovery, the 10% decline did some technical damage and I was surprised by the  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market Rally Over?

by Carl Swenlin

Last Friday the market executed a bullish intraday reversal, and this week it rallied five days straight; however, there were some problems. S&P 500 volume contracted into the rally, and Friday's candlestick was a bearish shooting star. I don't really use candlesticks much, but the shooting star is a fairly reliable sign of a short-term top. Another troublesome issue is the OBV reverse  Read More

2/16 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Bull/Bear Market Rules - Mailbag - Sentiment Update

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

Bull or Bear Market Rules?

by Erin Swenlin

Today on MarketWatchers LIVE, I did a workshop on bull and bear market rules. You'll hear many technicians discuss "bull market rules apply" or vice versa. The question is pertinent and timely right now. The jury is still out on whether we are about to enter a bear market phase but that doesn't mean that you don't want to think about 'bear market rules'. We are currently in a bull market. Based  Read More

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RECENT PULLBACK IN COMMODITIES IS LIKELY TIED TO STOCK CORRECTION -- COPPER AND OIL ARE STILL IN UPTRENDS

by John Murphy

COMMODITY PULLBACK IS TIED TO STOCKS My January 27 message wrote about a bullish breakout in commodity prices to the highest level in two years. I took that as another sign that inflation pressures were starting to build. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show that bullish breakout taking place in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (circled area). During February, however  Read More

Two Icons Reveal the Same Secret to Success

by Gatis Roze

Steve Jobs famously challenged everyone when he said, "We're here to put a dent in the universe.  Otherwise, why else be here?" I was fortunate recently to spend a couple of days in Napa Valley at the DENT 2018 conference. There's nothing like spending quality time with lots of exceptional people to get oneself re-energized and refocused  Read More

VeriSign (VRSN) Breaks Out To New Highs

by Greg Schnell

VeriSign (VRSN) is showing signs of a powerful breakout. The SCTR ranking is surging above 75. The Relative strength is making new 2-month highs and not far from its all-time highs. The price is breaking out shortly after the big pullback in the overall market suggesting more strength. There is lots to like about the chart. If it fails to hold the breakout, I'd let it go. We released  Read More

Gold Tries To Breakout 2018-02-15 Video

by Greg Schnell

Gold is trying to breakout again. We have seen this movie multiple times. The big question is the US Dollar.  The five year picture for Gold is even more interesting. What makes the gold trade more compelling is the breakout in the Yen. So that looks pretty good. More in just a little bit lower on this article. I will be on MarketWatchers Live on Wednesday February 21st to cover  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Rubber Band Rebound

by Arthur Hill

Rubber Band Rebound. A Bearish Breadth Thrust. High-Low Percent Indicators Weaken. %Above Indicators Remain Bullish. Weight of the Evidence. SPX Clears 50-day as VIX Falls. Small-caps Take the Internal Lead. Scan Code for Top ROC. Tech-Related Industry Groups Lead. Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. Rubber Band Rebound Stocks rebounded sharply this week with the S&P  Read More

Grading The Current Rally - Is It Sustainable?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, February 15, 2018 Selling is inevitable during bull markets.  After each leg higher, there's typically a period of selling/consolidation.  The bulls were spoiled for several months, as the bull market advance continued nearly uninterrupted.  There really hadn't been any notable selling or consolidation since the August 2016 high.  From there, the  Read More

Painting the US equity landscape using Relative Rotation Graphs

by Julius de Kempenaer

Relative Rotation Graphs are a great tool to visualize sector rotation and that is probably where you will see them applied most. But they can be used for so many more (rotational) variations of different universes or similar universes in a different way. In this post, I will show you how we can use Relative Rotation Graphs to visualize rotation in US Equity markets based on growth, value  Read More

2/15 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - RRG with Creator Julius de Kempenaer - Anatomy of a Trade

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

Gold Tests The Breakout Again

by Greg Schnell

The chart of Gold is getting interesting again. It keeps retesting this level. There are reasons to believe the breakout is at hand. I have used GLD to represent Gold here. The MACD is turning up above zero for the first time in 18 months shown on the chart. This is also the two year anniversary of the commodity low in 2016 when everything started to kick up. One of the reasons that Gold is  Read More

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Time For Some Temporary Grief In The Equity Market?

by Martin Pring

Path of recoveries from recent declines have been mixed S&P is at short-term resistance Some reliable short-term indicators not quite there yet Yen breaks out from a large base Path of recoveries from recent declines have been mixed After five straight up days since the February 9 intraday low, it's probably a good time to review how other contra trend corrections have  Read More

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Oil Bounces off Breakout Zone - Plus XES, HAL and an S&P 500 Update

by Arthur Hill

Indicators Improve as S&P 500 Follows Through. A Retest of the February Low? Monitoring the Pennant Breakout. Oil Bounces off Breakout Zone. Use Continuous Contract Long-Term. Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR Firms. Haliburton Returns to Breakout Zone. Indicators Improve as S&P 500 Follows Through Stocks bounced with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level  Read More

Wall Street Shakes Off Inflation Worries, Retail Slump; Rallies For 4th Straight Session

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, February 14, 2018 Wall Street sure did look like it was heading for a very rough day at 8:30am EST on Wednesday.  Very poor economic news hit traders with a 1-2 punch as the consumer price index jumped 0.5% instead of the 0.3% that everyone was expecting.  On the heels of that, we saw the worst retail sales report in 11 months.  Retail sales   Read More

2/14 MarketWatchers LIVE - Charles Kirkpatrick, Author/CMT - Under the Radar

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

DP Alert: Bullish Indicators - Gold Surges...For Now

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards didn't show any improvement from last week as the neutral and sell signals remained in the short term. PMO SELL signals are not yet on the weekly charts for these indexes, but they are lining up. If we see a pullback on the recent rally, we will likely see these PMO Sell signals on the Scoreboards this Friday or next. For a look at those charts, go to the  Read More

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STOCKS RECOVER FROM HIGHER INFLATION REPORT -- NASDAQ 100 IS FIRST INDEX TO REACH 50-DAY LINE

by John Murphy

MAJOR STOCK INDEXES BOUNCE BACK FROM EARLY SELLING January's CPI report came in higher than expected and caused stocks to open lower. The headline reading of 2.1% and core reading (excluding food and energy) of 1.8% were higher than economists were expecting. After opening lower, stocks regained their footing and are now in positive territory for the day. The 10-minuteRead More

A Short-term Disconnect between VIX and SPY - Watch the Pennant

by Arthur Hill

There is another disconnect working between the VIX and SPY. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) opened weak with a dip below 265, but the S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) also declined. This is an interesting dynamic because the VIX usually moves opposite of SPY. I am also intrigued that SPY opened weak and quickly rebounded.  Note that this disconnect could also be due to the options  Read More

This Might Very Well Be The Best Investment Over The Next 6-12 Months

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, February 13, 2018 The U.S. stock market settled down on Tuesday, trading in a much narrower range, and finished with gains across its major indices for the third consecutive day.  While it was good to see the market stabilize after such panicked selling, there remains critical overhead resistance that must be negotiated before a more meaningful rally can occur  Read More

Canada Prints Very Weak Sector Charts 2018-02-13 With Video

by Greg Schnell

The Canadian charts have been getting weak for a while. The last two webinars pointed to declining strength in the Canadian market. The breakdown in the last two weeks just accelerated the downward trend, it didn't start it. The financial sector really needs to rebound soon to not break the uptrend in momentum shown on the PPO chart. The energy sector is abysmal. The RSI is in bear market mode  Read More

2/13 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Overlays with Chip Anderson - Momentum Sleepers - What Would You Do?

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

Indicators Turning Up But is Correction Over?

by Erin Swenlin

The question that continues to arise this month is, "Is it over?". This correction was deeper than many expected or was about as deep as expected but it occurred so quickly. I'm finally getting some good news on my intermediate-term indicators, but not enough for me to trumpet the end of this correction. Interestingly, short-term indicators which have been so oversold the last two days, jumped  Read More

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REGIONAL BANK SPDR EXCEEDS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- LEADERS INCLUDE M&T BANK, BB&T CORP, AND REGIONS FINANCIAL

by John Murphy

REGIONAL BANK SPDR CLEARS 50-DAY AVERAGE One of the simplest ways to determine which stock groups, or individual stocks, are leading the market higher is to look for the ones that are clearing their 50-day moving averages first (or stayed above them). Yesterday's message showed the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) being the first of its class to do that. Financials  Read More

If You Only Learn One Lesson From This Sell-off (Learn This One)

by Tushar Chande

The recent sell-off in the market is among the worst 10 sell-offs since 2010 (see Chart 1), which means a rebound cannot be too far away. The all-important gauge of market skittishness, the $VIX, has not exceeded the level of 50 identified as the peak in my previous post, and has now closed below the five previous closes, implying that the most intense selling panic is probably over (see Chart  Read More

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Expansion in New Lows Points to Extended Correction

by Arthur Hill

As with Charles Dow, I work under the assumption that the trend is in force until proven otherwise. And, in accordance with Dow Theory, neither the length nor the duration can be forecast. We can, however, identify trend changes and act accordingly.  The stock market is in a delicate spot right now. The long-term trend is still up for the S&P 500, but the senior index is in the midst  Read More

Apple Rebounds, Leads Technology Higher As Wall Street Gains For Second Straight Day

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, February 12, 2018 Wall Street saw more gains on Monday, continuing the strength we saw late during the Friday session.  Most of the strength, however, came during the morning session as the benchmark S&P 500 hit 2660, rising 130 points or approximately 5%, off the intraday low on Friday afternoon.  That buying momentum did appear to slow  Read More

2/12 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Monday Set-Ups - Earnings Spotlight with John Hopkins - DP Report

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday through Friday 12:00p - 1:30p  Read More

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STOCKS ARE BUILDING ON FRIDAY'S UPSIDE REVERSAL FROM 200-DAY AVERAGE -- THE NEXT TEST WILL COME AT 50-DAY AVERAGES

by John Murphy

MARKETS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM 200-DAY LINE Stocks continue to build on the upside reversal that took place on Friday from 200-day moving averages. The daily bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 gaining enough ground today to climb back over its 100-day line (green line). The next test of the rally will come near the 50-day average (blue line) and last Wednesday's  Read More

CME Group Embraces Volatility and Bucks Selling Pressure

by Arthur Hill

The CME Group (CME), which has a number of volatility-based futures products, runs a variety of futures and options exchanges including the CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.  While the S&P 500 fell 8.82% over the last two weeks, CME Group actually gained ground and advanced 1.09%. CME was one of 21 stocks in the S&P 500 that closed higher over the last ten trading days. I will include a  Read More

U.S. Equities Recover, Stocks To Consider On A Rebound

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, February 9, 2018 For the first time in 18 months, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all closed out a week beneath their rising 20 week EMAs.  After not seeing a meaningful pullback (more than 3%) for well over a year, our major indices have all given up 10%+ in the past couple weeks, although each of the major indices rallied late last week to cut into  Read More

Thoughts on the Current Market

by Greg Morris

I rarely, if ever, discuss the current market or offer any market analysis.  StockCharts.com has many expert technical analysts that already do a bang up job on this.  However, since I am writing a series on Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model, I thought I would tell you how the model has worked over the past week or so.  At this point in the series I cannot detail  Read More

Bonds Get Clipped

by Bruce Fraser

As stocks have been getting roiled over the last two weeks, bonds have been somewhat overlooked. Bond prices began dropping in December 2017, and possibly contributed to the weakness in stock prices weeks later. It has been about a year since we have looked at treasury bonds. What are they indicating now, and could they impact the future direction of stock prices?          Read More

Shake Shack (SHAK) Has A Nice Flavour Here

by Greg Schnell

Shake Shack (SHAK) has been an interesting story. The stock IPO'd as a parabolic stock, then fell out of the sky. That's kind of how parabolic stocks go. But in 2017, Shake Shack started to show up on the radar again. Shake Shack Starts Shaking. Reviewing the chart you'll  Read More