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Latest Posts

S&P 500 Loses 20 Day EMA Support As Second Shoe Drops In Technology

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, June 27, 2017 The relative sector leader for over a year - technology (XLK, -1.64%) - took another beating on Tuesday as selling ramped up for a second consecutive session.  All industry groups within technology took a hit, but semiconductors ($DJUSSC) and internet stocks ($DJUSNS) took the biggest hits with the former losing its 50 day SMA  Read More

Is the Summer Slowdown Here?

by Tushar Chande

Yesterday's selling has shifted the short-term trends across many key indexes, equal weight ETFs and capital weighted ETFs. Is this the start of the summer slow down?  The S&P 500 closed below its 20-day, half-width bands for the first time since mid-May and the path of least resistance for most of my key sectors has now turned negative on the short-term. Chart 1: The SPX has closed...  Read More

Some Low Level Signals Flicker In Energy

by Greg Schnell

Watching the energy stocks get pommeled on the back of low crude oil has been hard. We have seen some beaten down names starting to rally slightly over the last couple of weeks.  Here is the $BPENER, which broke above the 50 DMA today as you can see in the zoom box. Another chart that we have been following with the $BPENER is the momentum of the $BPENER's MACD...  Read More

Valeant (VRX) Investors Putting In A Valiant Bid For Investor Interest

by Greg Schnell

Valeant (VRX) investors watched their stock top out 2 years. Anyone still holding the stock from back then needs a return of 100's of % to get back to where they once were. Frustrated investors sold VRX to claim their capital losses. Hedge funds sold their shares in full public view, frustrated by the fall. While the company does not sell a potion for healing...  Read More

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Investment Implications From A Breakout In The Stock/Gold Ratio?

by Martin Pring

Technical condition poised for an upside breakout in the stock/Gold ratio The significance for equities and gold from an upside or downside breakout. Wither the tech stocks? Technical condition poised for an upside breakout in the stock/Gold ratio The ratio ($SPX:$GOLD) between the S&P 500 ($SPX) and the Gold price ($Gold), has reached a very crucial  Read More

DP Alert: NDX Posts New ST Trend Model Neutral Signal - TLT Fake Out Breakout

by Erin Heim

As annotated on the DecisionPoint Scoreboard Summary, the Nasdaq 100 just triggered a new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) Neutral signal as the 5-EMA crossed below the 20-EMA on the daily chart. Today's breakdown took out support at the May high and closed just below the 50-EMA. The PMO on the NDX is reaching previously oversold territory which is encouraging, but it is pointed straight down  Read More

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TREASURY YIELDS FOLLOW EUROPE HIGHER -- THAT'S HELPING FINANCIAL STOCKS

by John Murphy

TEN-YEAR TREASURY YIELD HAS A STRONG DAY ... For the first time in weeks, bond yields are climbing. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield climbing 7 basis points to the highest level in two weeks. A lot of that is following even bigger gains in Europe. French and German 10-year yields are up 14 and 13 bps respectively. More hawkish comments from the ECB helped boost...  Read More

The Canadian Technician Video Recording For 2017-06-27

by Greg Schnell

The Canadian Technician video recording discusses why there are reasons to expect a positive outcome for the Canadian market but there is a substantial risk for a significant fall from these levels.  Canadian Technician Video Recording With Greg Schnell 2017-06-27 from StockCharts.com on  Read More

Extremely Low VIX Still Paints Bullish Picture

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, June 26, 2017 The Volatility Index ($VIX) is a signal of what the market expects in terms of volatility over the near-term (1 to 2 months).  While some look at the current reading below 10 as a signal of extreme complacency that will result in a lot of selling ahead, I don't view it that way at all.  I believe low VIX readings tell us that the...  Read More

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Bearish Candles Hit Big Tech Stocks - Plus two Brokers, Two Big Banks and More

by Arthur Hill

.... QQQ and Facebook hit with Dark Clouds .... Alphabet and Amazon Form Engulfing Patterns .... AMAT Forms Bearish Pennant .... A Feeble Bounce for Apple .... Etrade and Schwab Stall after Breakouts  .... Citigroup Leads, but JP Morgan Shows Short-term Strength .... Cypress Forms Engulfing within Correction  ....  There were quite a few bearish candlestick patterns on  Read More

6/26 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Monday Set-Ups - PMO Scan Reprint

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Monday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but in the MWL Blog will give you a quick recap. Be sure and check out  Read More

WFM Is Swallowed Whole

by Bruce Fraser

Whole Foods Market agreed to be acquired by Amazon.com, Inc. on June 16, 2017. This 'disruptive' move by Amazon.com roiled the retail stocks, which were already sagging badly. The price drops extended throughout the retail brick-n-mortar stocks. Investors in these retail stocks feared that AMZN would strategically leverage the acquisition with a physical presence at every WFM store  Read More

HCA Healthcare Bounces off Breakout Zone

by Arthur Hill

HCA Healthcare (HCA) is turning up at a key level and showing signs that the long-term uptrend is resuming. HCA is in a long-term uptrend because it broke out in January and recorded a 52-week high. This breakout zone turned into support around 82 as the stock fell back to this area with a "throwback". A classic tenet of technical analysis is that broken resistance turns into first support. HCA...  Read More

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AN EVEN LONGER-TERM COMPARISON OF THE LINK BETWEEN CRB INDEX AND CPI -- THE PAST TWO EXPERIENCES OF FULL EMPLOYMENT ALSO SAW RISING RISING OIL PRICES

by John Murphy

LONG TERM COMPARISON OF CPI AND COMMODITIES... I wrote a message over the weekend examining the impact that full employment and commodity prices have had on CPI inflation. At the risk of overdoing it, I'd like to finish that article with two more charts. I made the bold assertion over the weekend that every major upturn in inflation over the last three decades has been accompanied by an...  Read More

Crude Oil Bounces Off $42 Support, Energy Rebounds

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, June 23, 2017 It's been a rough ride for crude oil ($WTIC) over the past several months and the steady march lower has taken oil back to test its November low just above $42 per barrel.  It hasn't been a robust advance since touching support, but it's been a bounce nonetheless and the bulls will be trying to hold onto that support.  Here's a...  Read More

First Solar Starts Generating Some Power (FSLR)

by Greg Schnell

First Solar (FSLR) has been down and out for a while. The SCTR ranking has been below 10 for a long time. The SCTR started to surge in early May but fell back. This week it kicked back up to 85. With Friday's high close, FSLR is starting to generate some price power. With new volume hitting the stock recently and the MACD turning up while above zero, this looks like a  Read More

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STUDYING HISTORY TO MEASURE THE IMPACT OF FULL EMPLOYMENT AND COMMODITY PRICES ON CPI INFLATION -- THE FED IS BANKING ON FULL EMPLOYMENT TO BOOST INFLATION

by John Murphy

A HISTORICAL COMPARISON... A big debate is going on regarding the path of inflation. Inflation figures have slipped during the second quarter. So have commodity prices. Normally, falling commodity prices signal lower inflation. Fed economists argue that the current low unemployment rate should boost inflation. The Fed generally defines "full employment' as a reading below 5%. There's  Read More

BLUE Looking At Blue Skies Ahead?

by Tom Bowley

Biotechnology stocks ($DJUSBT) were the second best performing industry group last week, trailing on renewable energy ($DWCREE).  Both groups appear poised to continue their rally based on their longer-term weekly technical outlook.  Therefore, it's probably not a bad idea to look at stocks in these groups that pull back to find critical price support levels from where they're likely  Read More

DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap -- Troubling Negative Divergences

by Carl Swenlin

SPY began the week with a breakout on very high volume that subsequently looks like a minor blowoff, as price retreated back into the June trading range. The expansion of New Highs on Monday failed to match the climactic level of New Highs on June 2, and a PMO top implies that we could be in for more churning, and maybe a bit of a decline. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents  Read More

6/23 MarketWatchers Recap - Industries on Fire - ETF Spotlight - Sentiment

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Friday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but we will give you a quick recap. Be sure and check out the  Read More

Charts I'm Stalking: Action Practice #17

by Gatis Roze

This is all about your fiscal fitness and future financial fate.  Pay attention! I've written before about the indisputable number of academic studies proving asset allocation is the highest leverage activity that individual investors can focus on.  Although this blog will touch upon this, it will be focused instead on the principles of CORE & EXPLORE investing.  Though...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (w/ Video) - Two of Nine Sector SPDRs Hit New Highs

by Arthur Hill

.... SPY Breaks out of Flag Pattern .... QQQ Holds the Gap as IJR Forms Bull Flag .... Industrials and Healthcare Lead with New Highs .... Tech, Discretionary and Finance Lag a Bit .... First Supports for Materials, Staples and Utilities  .... Energy - Enough Said .... Tech ETF Bounce from Oversold Levels .... Insurance and Regional Banks Fall Back .... Not all Commodities are Down This  Read More

Find the Gap: What Are Jumbo Gaps? Can You Profit From Jumbo Gaps?

by Tushar Chande

Are jumbo gaps an oxymoron like "jumbo shrimp"?  I found some similarity between shrimp sizes and normalized up-side gaps (see Chart 1).   Do such jumbo gaps offer trading opportunities? I tried to quantify just that, and here is what I found. By the way, just as the number of shrimp per pound drops rapidly once the size goes above "Jumbo", similarly the frequency of occurrence  Read More

Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-06-22

by Greg Schnell

This weeks edition of Commodities Countdown suggests renewed weakness in Agriculture as well as the energy space. There are two interesting commodity areas to watch over the next week. First Solar and the TAN ETF are interesting as well as the precious metals.  Commodities Countdown With Greg Schnell 2017-06-22 from  Read More

DP Alert: NEW PMO SELL Signals on $OEX and $SPX - TLT Closing the Gap

by Erin Heim

The S&P 500 triggered a new PMO SELL signal yesterday at the close. Today, the S&P 100 joined in with its own PMO SELL signal. At this point, the Dow is the only one holding onto a PMO BUY signal, but a quick peek at the chart and we can see the PMO has topped and is heading down. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action...  Read More

BioMarin Next In Line For Breakout Among Biotechs?

by Tom Bowley

BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN), like the overall biotech industry ($DJUSBT), has struggled for the past 18 months to clear overhead price resistance.  But over the past couple trading sessions, we have seen one biotech company after another clear resistance on strong volume and accelerate.  It appears that BMRN is awaiting its turn.  While its gains this week have been strong,  Read More

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FALLING ENERGY PRICES ARE AFFECTING BOND RELATIONSHIPS -- LONGER MATURITIES ARE RISING FASTER

by John Murphy

LONGER MATURITY BONDS ARE RISING FASTER ... We can often get clues about market sentiment by comparing different parts of the fixed income universe. A lot has been written about the falling yield curve, which plots the difference between 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury yields. That usually signals expectations for lower inflation. Here's another variation on that theme. The green line in  Read More

Canadian Market In Correction

by Greg Schnell

After months of watching the oil stocks underperform crude, the broader Canadian $TSX was able to withstand some of the selling. Now the breadth of the market has shrunk considerably. All market breadth measures are weak. The chart below shows the Bullish Percent Index ($BPTSE). This measures the number of stocks on a buy signal. The blue vertical lines on the chart show when the $BPTSE...  Read More

Biotechs Explode, Send Healthcare To Leadership Role; Energy Runs Out Of Fuel

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, June 21, 2017 Biotechs ($DJUSBT) are the "semiconductors of healthcare".  When they move,  they move!  Healthcare (XLV, +1.27%) was easily the best performing sector on Wednesday as the DJUSBT soared 3.43%.  Unless we see a major reversal between today and tomorrow, we'll have a very significant breakout on...  Read More

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ADRs, ETFs and Currency - Analysis for EEM, Poland, China, Italy and Spain

by Arthur Hill

.... Vodafone in Dollars vs Pounds .... Index versus ETF versus Currency .... Emerging Markets ETF Hits Top of Channel .... Poland ETF Stalls within Uptrend .... China A-Shares ETF Breaks Out .... Italy and Spain Consolidate Gains .... Vodafone in Dollars vs Pounds Today I will take a look at some international ETFs. Before looking at some individual chart patterns, I would like to cover the...  Read More

What's Up With Techs? Price

by Erin Heim

Today on MarketWatchers LIVE (airs M/W/F Noon - 1:30p EST) during the regular market updates, I noticed technology was rallying strongly. If you recall, the Nasdaq has been taking it on the chin more than the other major indexes on declines which is why the NDX is the only index Scoreboard carrying a PMO SELL signal. The question is whether we will see more rally. Below is the intraday Market...  Read More

6/21 MarketWatchers Show Recap - Biotechs Breakout - Chart Patterns

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Wednesday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p - 1:30p shows, but here's a quick recap. Be sure and check out the  Read More

MACD Histogram Teeters as AT&T Breaks Wedge Line

by Arthur Hill

Despite a strong stock market in 2017, AT&T ($T) is having a tough time with a breakdown in early May and a sharp decline below the 200-day SMA. The stock rebounded after a double-digit decline with a bounce back to the 200-day SMA, which is now falling. Thus, we can clearly say the long-term trend is down for this stock. Short-term, the rebound ended as the stock broke the wedge line and...  Read More

Biotechs Breakout, Lead Healthcare Stocks Higher

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, June 20, 2017 Healthcare (XLV, +0.33%) was one of just two sectors - utilities (XLU, +0.06%) was the other - to rise on Tuesday as much of Monday's gains was relinquished.  The good news, however, is that biotechs ($DJUSBT) made a significant breakout on Tuesday and that bodes well for the group over the next couple months.  History...  Read More

Clorox (CLX) Polishes A New High

by Greg Schnell

Clorox (CLX) is a big Consumer Staples company showing off a new 52-week high this week. The breakout jumps above a 2016 top and a high touched in March 2017. The volume has been tepid the last 4 or 5 weeks so that is a little concerning, but everything else on the chart looks polished! Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA    Read More

DP Alert: Dollar (UUP) ST Trend Model BUY Signal - Oil Hits Last Chance Support

by Erin Heim

No new signals yet on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards, but with index PMOs in decline, I suspect we will see some more if the bulls can't get a rally to stick. Last Friday, the OEX weekly PMO had a negative crossover SELL signal. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market  Read More

$COPPER And The Miners - The Problem Continues

by Greg Schnell

$COPPER has been migrating sideways to down recently. The recent bounce off the 10 Week Moving Average is supportive. Back in May, I posted this chart suggesting that if $COPPER could get going, the global mining stocks should also reflect that bullish enthusiasm. While $COPPER has been able to hold above its 40-Week Moving Average (40 WMA), none of the major miners are able to follow...  Read More

Back to Basics: Changing Your CandleGlance ChartStyle

by Tushar Chande

A user asked me how I added the Chande Trend Meter to my CandleGlance view configuration.  So this blog post goes back to basics and shows step-by-step how easy it is to change the default Candle Glance configuration in StockCharts.  It will make you appreciate how simple yet powerful StockCharts is.   First, set up a chart with the indicators of your choice displayed as you wish...  Read More

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Is The Dollar Really In A Bear Market?

by Martin Pring

The long-term setting Short-term considerations Some individual currencies are vulnerable over the short-term Conclusion The long-term setting A few weeks ago I pointed out that the Dollar Index ($USD) had violated its bull market trendline, as well as the 65-week EMA and 12-month MA, two key long-term smoothings. That type of evidence, in conjunction with a...  Read More

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HEALTHCARE IS YEAR'S SECOND STRONGEST SECTOR -- IT ALSO OFFERS GREAT VALUE

by John Murphy

HEALTHCARE IS GETTING A LOT STRONGER ... I continue to believe that healthcare is one of the best values in the stock market. And it's attracting a lot of investor attention. Chart 1 shows the Health Care SPDR (XLV) trading at a new record high after clearing its mid-2015 peak. Its relative strength line (top of chart) is trading at the highest level since last November...  Read More