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Latest Posts

Newmont Holds Breakout Zone with a Bounce

by Arthur Hill

Newmont Mining (NEM) is one of the bigger gold players and its performance is tied to the price of gold, which is challenging resistance. Note that the Gold SPDR (GLD) has yet to break above its April-June highs, but Newmont is starting to outperform bullion with a break above these highs. On the price chart, NEM broke resistance with a sharp surge and then fell back to the breakout zone with a...  Read More

Gold Tops 1300 And Reverses; Equities Close Out Rough Week

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, August 21, 2017 Late day selling killed the market's earlier attempt to rebound from Thursday's heavy losses.  A market that finishes multiple days in a row weak is a market that requires a renewed buying effort.  While we could see that at any time, let's keep in mind that it's the 21st day of August and this is the time of all calendar  Read More

AMC Might Entertain The Bulls This Week

by Tom Bowley

I'm mostly a short-term momentum trader that likes to follow the big picture trend.  But it's hard to ignore stocks after they've been bludgeoned for a potential quick bounce, especially when you see a reversing candle on heavy volume.  Enter AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC).  Here's a stock that's lost more than half its market capitalization in the past few months and it's had  Read More

PG and PFE at similar location on RRG but one of them looks much stronger

by Julius de Kempenaer

  The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrials Index and compares their relative rotation to $INDU. From the first observation of this chart, a few tails/stocks catch the eye. First, there is BA in the top-right, leading, quadrant still powering further on both axes. Also inside or just entering the leading quadrant are NKE and JPM. Both...  Read More

Aerospace Has Been Strong, But It's Relative Strength Momentum Is Weakening

by Tom Bowley

Bull markets are fueled by sector and industry group rotation.  Throughout the bull market since 2009, we've seen each of the key aggressive sectors take their turn leading on a relative basis.  Within each sector, we also see relative leadership and weakness among industry groups.  For example, over the past month, aerospace stocks ($DJUSAS) have performed extremely well.  Read More

Stocks Have A Bad Day, August Is Living Up To Its Reputation

by John Murphy

S&P 500 FALLS TO SIX-WEEK LOW... Selling pressure resumed with a vengeance today. And a lot of support levels have been broken. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 falling back below its 50-day average to the lowest level in more than a month. Volume was higher. More serious damage was done to smaller stocks. Chart 2 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap  Read More

With Earnings Season Winding Down Whats Next?

by John Hopkins

As earnings season winds down traders are going to be looking for new reasons to be long the market. So far, according to Thompson's Reuters, 460 of the companies represented in the S&P 500 have reported earnings with almost 74% beating expectations. This is 10% above the long term average and helps explain why the market has been so strong, at least until last week when we saw some...  Read More

Two Potential Double Tops to Watch Going Forward

by Arthur Hill

Doubles Tops are forming in two key ETFs, the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY), and chartists should watch these important groups for clues on broad market direction in the coming week or two. First, let's talk about the Double Top. These patterns form with two peaks near the same level and an intermittent trough that marks support. A break below support...  Read More

Are The Transports Falling Off The Rails?

by Greg Schnell

The Transportation indexes look like they are struggling here. That's not usually a good thing. There are three components: Railroads - $DJUSRR, Airlines - $DJUSAR, and Trucking - $DJUSTK. Starting with the railroads, this has all the making of a derailment. There is a double top on the price chart. The multi-month negative divergence on the MACD compared with price looks to match the 2015 top...  Read More

Breadth Charts - PnF Charts - Full Stochastic Scan

by Greg Schnell

A big thank you to everyone who listened in on Fridays webinar. Hopefully you didn't find the charts too long-term without Tom Bowley. Erin Wood and Tom Bowley will be back on the Monday Market Watchers Live show. Here is a link to the RECORDING! Yes, these are recorded now!  In this particular show, I started reviewing the Market  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Failed Retest

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote: "I would like for the correction to continue for a while, but honestly, we may have just hit bottom." Well, the market did make a bottom, but it was just for a short bounce prior to this week's failed retest of last week's low. It was not the enduring intermediate-term bottom I had imagined, and it may be a while before we see that. As I watched decelerating price movement on...  Read More

DP Bulletin: Dow Industrials ($INDU) Generates ST Trend Model NEUTRAL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) 5EMA crossed down through the 20EMA, changing a Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal to NEUTRAL. Recently we have been plagued by deluge of whipsaw signals on the other three major indexes we track here, but the Dow has been quite unambiguous, holding an STTM BUY signal for almost three months. There are no guarantees, but this 5/20EMA  Read More

Charts I'm Stalking: Action Practice #20

by Gatis Roze

The reality is that markets operate within the law of groupings. This is precisely why I have formatted my unique chart view in a pull-down  menu under ChartStyles. You simply click on "Gatis Roze" at the bottom of "Predefined Settings" and up pops the Tensile Trading analysis format that clearly shows the following: A) How your stock is performing relative to the market. B) How the Sector...  Read More

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A Take On The Utilities In An On-going Correction

by Martin Pring

Bearish short-term charts suggest there is more to come on the downside Consumer Discretionary-not so discreet Energy-out of gas Utilities-a place to hide? Bearish short-term charts suggest there is more to come on the downside For the last two weeks, I have been zeroing in on a deteriorating near-term technical situation. Since the long-term indicators, such as the...  Read More

Market Is Very Overvalued

by Carl Swenlin

The market has been rising ahead of earnings for over two years, and it is very overvalued. Nevertheless, bullish investors seem unconcerned. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index (black line) in relation to where it would be if it were undervalued (P/E 10 - green line), fair value (P/E 15 - blue line), or overvalued (P/E 20 - red line). The current price is far above the overvalue side  Read More

Has The Curse of Year 7 Finally Caught up with the Market?

by Tushar Chande

Bad things have happened in the stock market during years ending in 7.  However, 2017 has been remarkably calm, and our year-to-date draw-down is the smallest since at least 1947 (see Chart 1). Will the market now play catch-up (or is catch-down?) to its Year 7 history over the next few months?  Inevitably, the sample size is small, but you can read about the quirks in Year 7 returns...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - Those Noisy Small and Mid Caps (w/ Video)

by Arthur Hill

.... Those Noisy Small and Mid Caps .... Correction Signals versus Bear Market Signals .... High-Low and AD-Volume Lines Turn Down .... SPY and QQQ Have Yet to Break Down .... Non-confirmation between RSP and SPY .... Small-caps Extend Oversold Readings .... Utilities and Technology Leading .... Finance and Staples Still Holding Up .... Industrials-Healthcare-Materials Extend Corrections ....  Read More

$GOLD Breaks Out

by Greg Schnell

$GOLD topped last year in July.  The Gold miners topped August 12th. After spending a year in decline, the last six months of that have been base building. This morning, the pre-market action has $GOLD above $1302.00. For Commodity investors, Copper has been performing well. It's nice to see Gold join the party.  The Relative Strength is breaking out to new three-month highs, The  Read More

Fear Escalates; Gold Nears Major Breakout

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, August 17, 2017 For now it's just a short-term issue, but money is rotating to defensive areas and fear is rising.  The Volatility Index ($VIX) jumped over 32% yesterday to close at its 5th highest level of 2017.  The highest close of 16.04 is just 3% away so clearly nervousness is becoming an issue and is driving these much larger daily...  Read More

Range Bound NDX

by Bruce Fraser

Mr. Wyckoff called his charting methodology 'Tape Reading'. Determining the present position and probable future direction of prices from their own action. Prices have tendencies which can be detected on the charts. Context is the idea that recent price action will provide clues about what to expect next. This is at the core of how to use and profit from the Wyckoff Method. In our Market  Read More

Internet Stocks Weekly Losing Streak Nearing Bull Market Record

by Tom Bowley

Unless there's a reversal on Friday, the Dow Jones U.S. Internet Index ($DJUSNS) will close lower for the fourth consecutive week, equaling its longest losing streak since the DJUSNS bottomed in late 2008.  There's a decent chance a new record could be set next week as the weekly negative divergence continues to play out.  Here's a look at the current technical picture: The last...  Read More

DP Bulletin: S&P 100 and Nasdaq 100 ST Trend Models Switch Back to NEUTRAL

by Carl Swenlin

Today both the S&P 100 ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) Indexes switched from Short-Term Trend Model BUY signals to NEUTRAL, when their 5EMAs crossed back down through their 20EMAs. With only two days since the last signal changes, this is more annoying whipsaw, but I think these signals will hold for a while. I'll be making a full assessment in tomorrow's DP Weekly Wrap. Today's decline was a...  Read More

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STOCKS HAVE A BAD DAY -- S&P 500 FALLS TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A MONTH

by John Murphy

S&P 500 FALLS TO SIX-WEEK LOW... Selling pressure resumed with a vengeance today. And a lot of support levels have been broken. Chart 1 shows the S&P 500 falling back below its 50-day average to the lowest level in more than a month. Volume was higher. More serious damage was done to smaller stocks. Chart 2 shows the Russell 2000 Small Cap  Read More

Commodities Countdown Video Recording 2017-08-17

by Greg Schnell

This week's Commodities Countdown Recording 2017-08-17 has a significant portion on breadth for the US Indexes. With the NASDAQ 100 Bullish Percent Index at 52%, we have been warned that a break lower is easily possible from here. Commodities Countdown Video With Greg Schnell 2017-08-17 from  Read More

NASDAQ 100 Again Gets Turned Back At Key Resistance

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, August 16, 2017 All of our major indices finished higher on Wednesday and seven of our nine sectors finished higher as well.  The primary laggard on the session?  Energy (XLE, -0.96%).  Go figure.  A significant reason for the XLE's renewed relative weakness has been the reversal in crude oil prices ($WTIC).  Since opening  Read More

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Medical Devices ETF Bids to End Correction - Analyzing the Top Stocks - Scanning a ChartList

by Arthur Hill

.... Medical Devices ETF Bids to End Correction .... An ETF is Only as Good as it's Component Stocks  .... Scanning for Trends with a ChartList .... Charting the Top Five IHI Stocks .... Abbot Surges off Support .... Thermo Fisher Consolidates after Gap .... Danaher Bounces after Support Break .... Boston Scientific Firms in Retracement Zone ....  Medical Devices ETF Bids to End...  Read More

Erin's Hits: Another PMO Scan for MarketWatchers

by Erin Heim

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** During the MarketWatchers LIVE program (airs 12:00p - 1:30p EST M/W/F), Tom Bowley and I have started a segment called "Anatomy of a Trade" where we go through our process for identifying investment  Read More

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RUSSELL 2000 FINDS SUPPORT AT 200-DAY AVERAGE -- SO HAVE THE DOW TRANSPORTS

by John Murphy

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT TO TRACK THE PERFORMANCE OF SMALLER STOCKS... One of the concerns expressed recently by several technical analysts (including myself) has been the relatively weak performance by small stocks. That's because they often tell us more about the true state of the stock market than major market indexes that are capitalization weighted and, as a result, dominated by the  Read More

Mind the Gap in AMAT

by Arthur Hill

The long-term trend for Applied Materials (AMAT), a big semiconductor equipment manufacturer, is clearly up and the short-term trend could be turning up again with a gap three days ago. The chart below shows AMAT hitting a 52-week high in early June and then forming a large triangle. This is basically a large consolidation within an uptrend, which means it is a bullish continuation pattern. A...  Read More

Commodity Countries Try To Rotate To Leadership

by Greg Schnell

Julius's de Kempenaer's RRG charts do a great job of visualizing the market rotation. The falling $USD made most investments in foreign markets do well. Some foreign markets have been dropping for three months in local currencies (France, Germany, Japan, Canada, Australia) but the charts priced in US Dollars made them look stellar. With the dollar stabilizing the last few weeks, these...  Read More

Strong Retail Sales Leads To.....Awful Performance By Retailers. Huh?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, August 15, 2017 July retail sales doubled expectations (+0.6% actual vs +0.3% consensus estimate) and we saw the kind of reaction in the bond market that we'd expect with treasury prices tumbling and treasury yields spiking.  But what happened to retail stocks?  They fell out of bed with the S&P Retail ETF (XRT) dropping 2.7% and closing  Read More

Time To Clean Out Your Portfolio?

by Greg Schnell

The discussion about market tops seems to dominate most of the news. With the exception of severe market collapses, usually the market rotates through different sectors in the business cycle, even during down times. The market top in 2015 saw Clorox rise 30% in the next year while the index pulled back. Recently, my eye was drawn to Clorox (CLX), looking for a strong, defensive stock. If  Read More

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HOME IMPROVEMENT STOCKS LEAD CYCLICALS LOWER -- AMAZON HAS ALSO WEAKENED

by John Murphy

HOME DEPOT AND LOWES TUMBLE... Heavy selling in retail stocks is weighing on cyclical stocks which are the one of the day's weakest sectors. Home improvement stocks are the day's weakest group in that sector. Chart 1 shows Home Depot (HD) losing nearly -3% and falling below its 50-day moving average. Chart 2 shows Lowes Companies (LOW) in a similar...  Read More

Misunderstanding Average

by Greg Morris

Did you hear about the six-foot tall Texan that drowned while wading across a stream that averaged only 3 feet deep?  The "World of Finance" is fraught with misleading information.  The use of average is one that needs a discussion. Figure A shows how easily it is to be confused over what is average.  And of course, this time it is intentional.  This example should put it in...  Read More

Monday Was A Bullish Kind Of Rebound

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, August 14, 2017 When the stock market goes up, I want to see money rotate towards aggressive areas and we definitely saw that on Monday.  Technology (XLK, +1.59%), financials (XLF, +1.37%) and industrials (XLI, +1.05%) were the three big winners on the session and they're all considered aggressive sectors.  I also like to see wide  Read More

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Transport ETF Holds Breakout, Semiconductor ETF Holds Support, Fab 5 Tech Stocks

by Arthur Hill

.... Transport ETF Bounces off Key Retracement  .... Airline ETF Returns to Breakout Zone .... Railroad Stocks are in Uptrends .... XSD Bounces of Support .... Diodes and Skyworks Turn Up .... Microsoft, Facebook and Apple Lead the Fab Five .... Pfizer Shows Good Volume Trends .... Thor Surges off Gap Zone ....  Transport ETF Bounces off Key Retracement  I don't follow the...  Read More

Erin's Hits: Bear Market PMO Scan Screens a Few "Dogs"

by Erin Heim

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** With the market overbought and ready for at least a pullback, I decided to run one of my bear market Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) scans to see if I could find a  Read More

8/14 - MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Monday Setups - Candlesticks - 10 in 10

by Tom Bowley

Welcome to the recap of Monday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads.  Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00pm - 1:30pm EST shows, but the MWL blog will give you a quick recap.  Be sure and check  Read More

DP Bulletin: Three New Short-Term Signals

by Carl Swenlin

On Friday the S&P 100 ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) had Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) signal changes from BUY to NEUTRAL. Today they switched back to BUY. The dreaded whipsaw again. Also, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) had a short-term PMO signal change from BUY to SELL. The two charts below show the whipsaw STTM signal changes for $OEX and $NDX -- the 5EMAs crossed back up...  Read More

A Big Dow Component is Turning Up Again

by Arthur Hill

The Dow Industrials is in a clear uptrend with a fresh 52-week high just last week. Note that this senior Average is hitting these new highs without much help from its second largest component, Goldman Sachs. For reference, the Dow Diamonds (DIA) is up around 13% year-to-date and GS is down around 3.5%. The Dow is a price-weighted average and this means the stock with the highest price carries...  Read More