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Latest Posts

The Wisdom of Montier

by Greg Morris

I honestly do not know when or where I first heard of James Montier but believe it was a turning point in my investing and money management.  Behavioral Finance / Investing is a relative newcomer to the world of investing, or at least the identification and writing about it.  The human frailties have always been here, we just didn't have a word to describe them.  Plus, I have  Read More

Bank of America Holds above Breakout Zone $BAC

by Arthur Hill

Bank of America (BAC) broke out of a large bullish continuation pattern three weeks' ago and this breakout is holding. Overall, BAC surged from June 2016 to February 2017 and then consolidated with a large triangle pattern. A consolidation within an uptrend is a bullish continuation pattern and the breakout around 25 signaled a continuation of this uptrend. The breakout zone around 25 turns  Read More

There's No Spooking The Bulls As Friday The 13th Results In New Record Highs

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, October 13, 2017 There are plenty of superstitious folks out there, but apparently the majority of stock traders don't fall under that umbrella.  U.S. equities again rose on Friday with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all climbing to all-time intraday highs.  Only the NASDAQ, however, was able to finish with a record high close.   Read More

Dear Point and Figure Diary

by Bruce Fraser

Dear Point and Figure Diary, As you know, I made an entry into your pages on July 15th of this year ( click for a link). At the time, it appeared that two Reaccumulation Point and Figure Counts (PnF) were stacking up. This suggested another rally phase ahead in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU). I  Read More

10/13 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Upgrades/Downgrades - Earnings Spotlight - Sentiment

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Friday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You can now watch the latest  episode under the "Webinars" tab! Information...  Read More

Will Seasonal Tailwinds Stem The Tide Of Selling In This Technology Company?

by Tom Bowley

Juniper Networks (JNPR) was under heavy selling pressure last week to open October, a seasonally bullish month for JNPR as the stock has averaged gaining more than 13% each October over the past two decades.  The irony here is that we've seen JNPR twice in recent years open October in the same bearish manner (black circles below) only to bounce off trendline support.  Check this...  Read More

Citrix Ends Correction with Five Week Surge

by Arthur Hill

Citrix (CTXS), which is part of the Internet ETF (FDN) and Software iShares (IGV), appears to have ended its correction and resumed its long-term uptrend. The stock hit a 52-week high in early 2017 and then declined from May to August. CTXS underperformed the market and its peers during this timeframe, but the decline was a correction within a bigger uptrend. Notice that the move retraced  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Parabolic Neutralized

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I identified a short-term parabolic advance, a pattern in which price advances in an ever-steepening upward curve. Typically parabolics become too steep and they collapse. In this case price moved sideways through the curve, effectively neutralizing the bearish implications of the formation. We currently have a small rising flag formed by this week's price bars, which is bullish, but  Read More

3 Investors, 3 Blind Spots, 3 Solutions

by Gatis Roze

Picture this:  I am at a cocktail party chatting with three people about investing.  The first person says, "I could be a really successful investor if only I could emotionally tolerate a bit more risk."  The second person claims, "I could be a world-class investor too if I had access to the same information as big institutional investors."  The third person believes that  Read More

Trend Analysis of the US Dollar and Guggenheim CurrencyShares ETFs

by Tushar Chande

As currency markets respond to political developments in the US and Europe, and as central banks adjust their posture, the dollar is searching for a firmer bottom.  I take a closer look at the US Dollar and currency ETFs, i.e. ETFs long a foreign currency and short the US dollar.   Chart 1: A trend-analysis of Bonds, Gold, S&P 500 and the US Dollar summarizes the current trend...  Read More

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PULLBACK IN BOND YIELDS CAUSES PROFIT-TAKING IN BANKS -- BUT KBE CHART PATTERN REMAINS POSITIVE

by John Murphy

BOND YIELDS WEAKEN... Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) pulling back today to the lowest level for the month. The TNX is backing off from a test of its July peak near 2.4% which isn't too surprising. Its 14-day RSI line (top of chart) had also reached overbought territory at 70. During September, the TNX rose above a falling trendline drawn over its...  Read More

Sectors Mixed, But That Doesn't Slow Down U.S. Equities

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, October 12, 2017 It was certainly a bifurcated day among sectors.  Four sectors advanced, including industrials (XLI, +0.53%) and utilities (XLU, +0.52%), while five declined.  Financials (XLF, -0.76%) were hardest hit as the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) has struggled to gain any ground since testing 2.40% yield resistance one week ago...  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with Video) - Consumer Discretionary Weighs on Market

by Arthur Hill

.... Consumer Discretionary Weighs on Market  .... SPY and QQQ Hit Fresh New Highs .... IJR Edges Lower after Big Run .... A Hat Trick in the Technology Sector .... Industrials Pick up the Slack .... Materials Sector Leads with More New Highs .... Finance Sector Stalls Near New High .... Bullish Continuation Patterns Form in Energy  .... XLU and RYU Break Flag Lines .... Consumer...  Read More

Put/Call Ratios At Simultaneous Lows - Bearish for the Market

by Erin Heim

A MarketWatchers LIVE viewer emailed me today and suggested I revisit the Put/Call Ratio chart. Upon recommendation, I did just that and was glad that he pointed it out to me so that I could point it out to you. I'll be talking about it in more detail during tomorrow's MarketWatchers LIVE show, so be sure to join Tom and I at 12:00p - 1:30p EST or...  Read More

Commodities Countdown Recording - Scanning Part 1 October 2017

by Greg Schnell

Here is the Commodities Countdown article on scanning, Part 1. In this two part posting, I detail a lot of the tips and tricks to make scanning and alerts better. Commodities Countdown 2017 October Scanning Part 1 from StockCharts.com on Vimeo. Good trading, Greg Schnell,  Read More

RRG suggests sector rotation out of Real Estate (XLRE) into Industrials (XLI)

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph for US sectors shows seven sectors clustered around the benchmark in the middle of the graph (SPY) and three of them further away. XLE is more or less detached from the rest of the universe while XLP and XLY are breaking away together and heading deeper into the lagging quadrant. Within the cluster of sectors closer to the center of the chart, Real...  Read More

Bullish Momentum Building Again On AMD

by Tom Bowley

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) spent over a year with its SCTR among the highest of all individual stocks.  It was an impressive rally for sure as its stock price rose from below $2 to above $15 in 13 months.  But even the hottest stocks need to evenually consolidate to unwind perpetually overbought conditions.  AMD has been doing that, frustrating thousands of traders.  I  Read More

Broadline Retailers Move To Two Month High To Lead Major Indices

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, October 11, 2017 A strange pair - utilities (XLU, +0.43%) and technology (XLK, +0.33%) - combined to lead our major indices higher on Wednesday with the NASDAQ rising 0.25% to close at another all-time high.  Seven of the nine sectors ended the day in positive territory as only financials (XLF, -0.19%) and industrials (XLI, -0.06%) were down...  Read More

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Microsoft and Alphabet Lead the Fab Five - Four Stock Setups - Bitcoin Index Hits New High

by Arthur Hill

.... Microsoft Leads Fab Five with New High .... Alphabet Breaks Triangle Line .... Apple Reverses after Oversold Reading  .... Amazon Breaks Wedge Line .... Avago Pattern Evolves into Ascending Triangle .... Cornerstone OnDemand Forms Double Bottom .... Universal Display Firms at Support and Zoetis Turns Up .... Understanding Cryptos and Blockchain  .... Bitcoin Index Hits New High...  Read More

Gold Narrowly Avoids IT Trend Model Neutral but Not Out of the Woods

by Erin Heim

Carl and I have been watching the Gold chart carefully for a likely Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) Neutral Signal. However, with the rally of the last two days, both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA have slowed their descent. A negative 20/50-EMA crossover will trigger that ITTM Neutral signal. Why not a SELL signal? If the 50-EMA is still above the 200-EMA, we're looking at a LT bullish trend and  Read More

10/11 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Guest Arthur Hill - Ten in Ten to One

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Wednesday's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. You'll find the latest episode here. Information abounds in our Monday/Wednesday/Friday 12:00p -  Read More

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GOLD LOSES SAFE HAVEN APPEAL AS STOCKS HIT NEW RECORDS -- GOLD MINERS ARE LEADING BULLION LOWER

by John Murphy

GOLD SPDR FAILS TEST OF RESISTANCE LINE... A month ago it looked like gold might be on the verge of a bullish breakout. It didn't happen. My September 7 message showed gold nearing a test of a major "neckline" extending back three years. The weekly bars in Chart 1 show the Gold SPDR (GLD) having failed a test of that major resistance line (see arrow). North Korean...  Read More

Comcast Fails at a Key Moving Average

by Arthur Hill

A recent double top and failure at the 200-day SMA point to lower prices for Comcast (CMCSA). The double top formed from May to early September with two highs around 42 and a low around 38. Comcast broke this low with a sharp decline and then became oversold. The stock bounced back to the break zone and the 200-day SMA in in the second half of September, but turned lower the last four days and...  Read More

Late Day Buying Sends Dow Jones Into The Record Books Again

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, October 10, 2017 The Dow Jones finished 69 points higher on Tuesday to close at yet another all-time high.  It's an illustration of how equities can remain overbought for an extended period of time.  The Dow Jones moved into overbought territory (RSI 70+) 7-8 days ago, yet we've seen the Dow push higher nearly every day, rising 400 additional...  Read More

DP Alert: Market Rally Pop, No Follow-Through

by Erin Heim

No changes to the DP Scoreboards today, but you can see that every signal is a BUY signal except the IT PMO signal on the NDX. Check out my ChartWatchers article to learn more about why that is the case. Ultra-short-term indicators had pointed to a possible  Read More

Is Now The Time To Jump In F5 Networks?

by Tom Bowley

F5 Networks (FFIV) has a seasonal history of performing extremely well in October and November, but technically the stock has been a wreck since topping in March 2017 and the early October returns haven't been very good either.  There is hope, however, in the form of upcoming price support and it appears as though longer-term weekly momentum could be turning as well.  Check out this...  Read More

Maintain a Proper Perspective

by Greg Morris

Watching the evening news can give you a misleading and often wrong perspective on the stock market.  Most commentators mention whether the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up or down and by how much, and that is just about the complete financial report, even though the Dow Jones' 30 large blue-chip stocks do not give a good representation of the overall stock market.  It is a  Read More

Specialty Retailers Flash Short-Term Sell But Long-Term Buy

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, October 9, 2017 The U.S. major stock market indices took a breather - if you want to call it that - on Monday as the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all fell less than 0.25%.  Only the Russell 2000 lost more than that, dropping 0.44%, but small caps benefited from a huge rally that began in mid-August so let's cut them a little slack.  While...  Read More

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10-yr Yield and TLT Hit Moment-of-Truth - Gold, Silver and Gold Miners Reverse in Fib Zone

by Arthur Hill

.... Nearing the Moment-of-truth for TLT and $TNX .... How the 10-yr Yield Affects other Names .... Gold, Silver and Gold Miners Reverse Near Key Retracement .... Newmont Forms Bull Flag .... Working with High-Low Percent Indicators .... Finance, Industrials,  Tech  and Materials Lead New High List .... New Highs Expand for XLK .... Three Different Sector Views for Consumer Staples...  Read More

10/9 MarketWatchers LIVE Recap - Monday Set-Ups - DecisionPoint Update

by Erin Heim

  Welcome to the recap of Monday's  MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. Watch the latest episode here! Information abounds...  Read More

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A Pause To Refresh Before A Year End Rally?

by Martin Pring

Short-term October stock market correction? Healthcare not looking so healthy Dollar likely to digest recent gains over the immediate short-term How about a rally in gold? Short-term October stock market correction? The strongest seasonal of the year for equities comes at year-end. Since this is a bull market, it seems that there is a good chance the stocks will once again...  Read More

Lithium ETF (LIT) Looks Bearish

by Carl Swenlin

This morning I saw a commercial for the Global X Lithium ETF (LIT), and I thought, "Hmmm, lithium . . . batteries for iPhones, MacBooks, etc." So I pulled up a chart of LIT, and all kinds of things jumped out at me. First I saw the parabolic advance that got so steep it collapsed. Next there is the snapback rally that had price back to the previous high, at which point it backed off to form a...  Read More

One of the Weakest Stocks in the S&P 500 Looks Set to Get Even Weaker

by Arthur Hill

The S&P 500 is near all time highs and we are in a bull market, but Advance Auto Parts (AAP) did not get the memo and recent signals point to new lows. First and foremost, the long-term trend is down because the 50-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA and the stock hit a new low in August. AAP bounced from this August low, but hit resistance near broken support and the falling 50-day SMA.  Read More

Bull Market Resiliency Shines Through After Weak Jobs Report

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, October 9, 2017 Extremely overbought and extended conditions.  Complacency in the form of a very low Volatility Index ($VIX) reading.  Geopolitical tensions.  Then a  negative jobs report.  The market was surely doomed on Friday, right?  Wrong.  That complacency, as evidenced by near record low...  Read More

This Tech Company Just Broke Out Of Bullish Pattern With Rising SCTR

by Tom Bowley

While we've seen many indices, ETFs and individual stocks break out over the past several weeks, there are still many that are consolidating in bullish fashion and those, upon breakout, provide solid trading opportunities.  Enter DXC Technology Company (DXC).  Over the past two months, the S&P 500 has risen nearly 100 points (roughly 4%) while DXC has quietly consolidated and  Read More

Get Ready - Earnings Season is About to Begin

by John Hopkins

They say how time flies; and it's true, especially from one earnings season to another, and starting this week we're going to start hearing from thousands of companies as they release their numbers. And boy, there's nothing traders and longer term investors care about more than earnings. This makes total sense. Think about it. Companies cannot control everything swirling around them. What they...  Read More

The NASDAQ 100 Hit a Record High This Week, But Still Lags The S&P 500

by John Murphy

Chart 1 shows the Powershares QQQ ETF hitting a record high this week. It was the last of the major stock indexes to do so, and its breakout is a positive sign for the market. It also did slightly better than the rest of the market. The QQQ, however, has still been a relative laggard over the last month. That's shown by the falling QQQ/SPX ratio since the  Read More

RRG says you need to keep an eye on Small Caps!

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph above shows the rotation of the three size indices that make up the S&P Composite 1500 index. Although the S&P 500 large cap index ($SPX) is still clearly on the right-hand side of the RRG, making very small rotations close to the 100-level on the JdK RS-Momentum scale some interesting moves seem to be playing out on the left-hand side of the plot...  Read More

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THE NASDAQ 100 HIT A RECORD HIGH THIS WEEK, BUT STILL LAGS BEHIND THE S&P 500 OVER THE LAST MONTH -- RISING BOND YIELDS HAVE CAUSED THE QQQ TO LOSE MOST GROUND AGAINST FINANCIALS AND SMALL CAPS

by John Murphy

NASDAQ 100 HITS NEW HIGH... Chart 1 shows the Powershares QQQ ETF hitting a record high this week. It was the last of the major stock indexes to do so, and its breakout is a positive sign for the market. It also did slightly better than the rest of the market. The QQQ, however, has still been a relative laggard over the last month. That's shown by the falling...  Read More

Four Critical Signals That Confirm It's Full Speed Ahead For Equities

by Tom Bowley

I've been following the stock market for a long time and I'm always searching for that perfect signal that never fails.  I still haven't found it and there are never any guarantees in the stock market, BUT following the rotation of money to aggressive areas of the stock market can provide fairly reliable confirmation that a bull market rally is sustainable.  The four relative ratios...  Read More