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Global Overview of 2018 with Seven PerfCharts - On Trend Preview

by Arthur Hill

Today's show, On Trend, provides a review of 2018, which is the year of few winners (so far). With less than two weeks before yearend, I would not expect too much to change. The show starts with seven PerfCharts to focus on seven different groups around the globe. These include asset class ETFs, international indexes, commodities, currencies and US stocks. Today's commentary shows these  Read More

It Was Just Another Manic Monday

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, December 17, 2018 Every component stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell on Monday as the index dropped another 500 points.  The S&P 500 lost major closing price support at 2581, crude oil ($WTIC) threatened to break below $50 per barrel, small caps ($RUT) and transports ($TRAN) extended their jaw-dropping December swoons, and  Read More

Mark Hulbert Sentiment Indices: Advisers Are Contrary Indicators

by Brian Livingston

After decades of editing the Hulbert Financial Digest, Mark Hulbert is now debunking financial advisers' guesses. • His Hulbert Sentiment Indices show that gurus who make predictions are so often wrong that, in many cases, you can profit by doing the exact opposite of what they say. Save your money and don't put your faith in expensive market-timing newsletters or consultants.    Read More

12/17 MWL Recap: Monday Setups - Earnings with John Hopkins - DP Sentiment Report

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

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Catch A Falling Knife?

by Martin Pring

The Market Remains Oversold More Trend Damage Triggered Key Ratios Have Just Broken to New Lows As a kid, I used to love building sand castles and defending them against the ensuing wave action. If the tide was coming in, however, it always proved to be a fool's errand as the castle was instantly washed away. Last week, I raised the question of a year-end rally, based on a downside whipsaw  Read More

Momentum Turns for Big Blue

by Arthur Hill

IBM is one of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year with an 18% decline year-to-date - and it could get worse. First and foremost, the long-term trend is down because the stock recorded a 52-week low in late October, the 50-day moving average is below the 200-day moving average and price is below the falling 200-day moving average. IBM plunged in October with a 25% decline  Read More

S&P 500 Nearing Significant Breakdown, Bull Market Running Out Of Steam

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, December 14, 2018 The U.S. stock market suffered another big blow to its current 9+ year bull market on Friday.  Culprits for the selling included Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, -10.30%) in the healthcare space (XLV, -3.37%), easily the worst performing sector, Adobe Systems (ADBE, -6.96%) in technology (XLK, -2.45%) after missing its bottom line EPS estimate  Read More

Article Summaries: 9/2018 - 12/2018

by Greg Morris

Periodically I write an article, such as this one, that reviews the past few months of articles.  Why on Earth would I do this?  Primarily for two reasons.  One is that many new readers are involved and often they do not go back and look at the past articles.  Two is that my articles are rarely tied to anything that is happening in the markets.  Generally, they are  Read More

Commodities Struggle Again 2018-12-15

by Greg Schnell

With the markets plunging hard to close out the week, it was interesting to see some of the banks trade slightly better than the overall index drop on the day. The Fed meeting Wednesday and the quadruple witching day for options on Friday are some catalysts for a change in trend. Here is the sector performance for the week. Looking through the list, the semiconductors finished up on  Read More

The Financials Sentiment Indicators Suggest This Might Need More Time

by Greg Schnell

It looks like another tough month for the markets as year-end approaches. The index swings are getting increasingly aggressive and it feels like nearly every sector is getting yanked around. While there are lots of reasons to be bullish based on some of the "oversold" sentiment indicators, other reasons suggest a more worrisome stance. In the chart below, the top panel shows the  Read More

PMO Analysis - Wrong Direction and Not Oversold Enough

by Erin Swenlin

The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) is a great measure of acceleration/deceleration of price for individual entities. Combining each component's PMO readings within an index is especially advantageous in allowing us to understand how overbought or oversold it is in three timeframes. Although readings are oversold, they are still declining. This suggests that prices within the SPX, OEX  Read More

Want To Know The Difference Between A Correction And A Bear Market?

by Tom Bowley

Not a whole lot. I guess there are three primary differences.  First, there's the percentage drop as corrections are generally considered to see a drop of less than 20%, while bear markets tend to see declines well in excess of 20%.  Second, a bear market tends to last longer than a correction as the latter is nothing more than a basing period (that can still be extremely  Read More

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LONGER-RANGE INDICATORS REMAIN BEARISH FOR U.S. STOCKS -- RETEST OF EARLY 2018 LOWS SHOULD DETERMINE IF STOCKS ARE IN A BEAR MARKET

by John Murphy

WEEKLY S&P 500 CHART CONTINUES TO LOOK TOPPY There's a reason why every short-term rally attempt over the past couple of months has failed. That's because longer-range indicators have turned bearish and remain so. It's more difficult for bounces on daily charts to get very far when the trends on weeklyand monthly charts have  Read More

The Yield Curve And The Business Cycle

by Julius de Kempenaer

The "Yield Curve" is a term often used in finance and refers to the relationship between (government) bonds with various maturities. The "Normal" relationship between the yield on various maturities is that the longer you lend money to someone. In this case the US government, the more "yield" you require. Similar to your mortgage, a fixed rate for five years is cheaper than a fixed rate for ten  Read More

Consider This New Year's Stock Market Resolution And Change Your Financial Future

by John Hopkins

First, I'd like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!   2018 has been a wild ride with volatility returning to extreme levels.  Unfortunately, 2019 looks like it will get even worse.  I believe we're in a bear market and, at EarningsBeats.com, we've already made preparations for it. A bear market doesn't have to mean losses in your portfolio.  You have  Read More

Support Levels in Downtrends? Fuggedaboutit!

by Arthur Hill

As obvious as it seems, lower lows and lower highs are the order of the day in a downtrend. Thus, prices are expected to break prior lows and continue lower when the trend is down. Taking this downtrend concept one step further, one could also assume that support levels within downtrends are highly questionable and offer false hope. After all, lower lows are the norm, not the exception. Our  Read More

Week Ahead: Nifty continues to trade below key resistance levels despite strong pullback

by Milan Vaishnav

In our previous weekly note, we noted that we were expecting a rough ride for the Markets. Over the course of the last week, the markets dealt with the state election results and the sudden resignation of the RBI Governor.  Volatility ruled the roost, with  the NIFTY seeing swings in the band of over 750-points before ultimately ending the week with modest gains of 111.75 points  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Bear Market? Never Seen One.

by Carl Swenlin

The chart below shows the entire period during which I have been involved in stock market analysis, and, as you can see, the title of this article definitely does not apply to me. If a decline of -20% or more qualifies as a bear market, then I have experienced seven of them. Additionally, there were three periods which, while not qualifying as bear markets, were sufficiently unpleasant to  Read More

12/14 MWL Recap: What's Hot, What's Not - Are You Buying This?

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

Russell 2000 Small Cap Index and the Dow Transports Fall to 52-Week Lows

by John Murphy

Editor's Note: This article was originally published in John Murphy's Market Message on Friday, December 14th at 2:32pm ET. Two of the earliest warning signs since October that the stock market was in trouble was the fact that economically-sensitive stock groups like small caps and transports were leading  Read More

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HEAVY SELLING PUSHES U.S. STOCK INDEXES NEAR DECEMBER LOWS -- EARLY 2018 LOWS ARE NEXT

by John Murphy

HEADING BACK TO EARLY 2018 LOWS After a unimpressive bounce this week, stock prices are ending week under heavy selling pressure. The first three charts show the Dow Industrials, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq Composite nearing new lows for the month of December, which puts them on a path to retest their early 2018 lows. Several writers on this site (besides myself)  Read More

Portfolio Management and Asset Allocation: Supercharge These Using Powerful Morningstar Tools

by Gatis Roze

The most important thing in my life is not money - it is my time and my health. These two items are far more important to me than monetary assets. As a result, I'm always focused on how I spend my time and less on how I spend my money.  If this strikes you as reasonable, then you'll be pleased as an investor with the tools I'm about to share with you. They are tools that will enhance your  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with video) - Beware of the Next Dubious Support Level

by Arthur Hill

Support Levels are Dubious in Downtrends. Continuation Patterns after Breakdowns. Mid-caps and Small-caps Lead Lower. Bonds Catch Bid as Stocks Fall. 10-yr Yield and Oil Fall Together. Gold Ignores Dollar Strength. Is it Really Worth It? XLU Hits New High. XLP Corrects within Uptrend. XLV Consolidates after New High. Notes from the Art's Charts ChartList. When Support Levels  Read More

Banks Are Bleeding Profusely

by Greg Schnell

The banking sector has been drilling holes in the bottom of empty Christmas stockings this year. All the big name US stocks are making new lows, but the real concern is the sheer size of the drop. Citi (C) is down 16% in just 2 weeks! BAC is down 25% from the annual highs! Wells Fargo (WFC) is down 28% this year! With the $SPX just slightly negative on the year, you can see the real pain  Read More

Here's A Bear Market Chart You Can't Afford To Miss!

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, December 13, 2018 The U.S. stock market attempted to stage rallies on Thursday, initially in the morning session and then again in the final hour.  But astute technicians that follow more than the headline Dow Jones and S&P 500 numbers realized it was a rally likely to fail.  Why?  Well, primarily because we're residing beneath declining 20 day EMAs  Read More

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STOCKS ARE GOING BACK ON THE DEFENSIVE

by John Murphy

SHORT-TERM BOUNCE HAS RUN ITS COURSE This week's modest rebound in stocks has been unimpressive and appears to have run its course. Lack of upside volume and weak breadth also show that investors have stayed on the sidelines, or have sold into this week's rebound. Sector leadership has also been more negative than positive. Continued selling in financials, materials, industrials, and  Read More

12/13 MWL Recap: "Get Shorty" by Bill Shelby - Under the Radar

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

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Breadth Remains Weak on Reversal Attempt

by Arthur Hill

An Attempt at a Candlestick Reversal. Breadth Fails to Impress. More Stocks Breaking 50-day EMA. On Trend on StockCharts TV. An Attempted Candlestick Reversal The S&P 500 firmed over the last few days, but breadth remains weak overall. The first chart shows candlesticks over the last few months with a reversal attempt over the last four days. There is a filled  Read More

A Great Day Turns Good With Afternoon Selling; Internet Stocks Bottoming?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, December 12, 2018 The opening gap higher on Wednesday added to the recent stock market advance and the bulls stretched those early morning gains into the afternoon session.  But much of those intraday profits faded as the session wore on and an across-the-board advance really didn't feel so great by day's end.  Let's start, however, with the good  Read More

Oh WELL... What Can I Say?

by Julius de Kempenaer

On the Relative Rotation Graph, the Real-estate sector is one of the better performing sectors vis-a-vis the S&P 500 index. The RRG above shows the rotation of all the stocks in XLRE against XLRE. This gives us a picture of the relative positions for all these stocks against XLRE and against each other. A few names stand out in a positive way. EXR, VTR, HCP, and WELL are all  Read More

Improve a 'Bad' 529 College Savings Plan - part 4

by Brian Livingston

Some 529-type college savings plans are so restrictive that no more than two portfolio changes per year are possible. • If you're willing to do a little extra footwork, you may be able to adapt your portfolio to market conditions a bit more often - without market timing. Here are the details you need to maximize the gain of whatever your educational investment program may be. • Parts 1, 2, and  Read More

12/12 MWL Recap - Guest Mary Ellen McGonagle - Turning Point - Q&A

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

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MONDAY'S UPSIDE REVERSAL DAY MAY HAVE SIGNALLED SHORT-TERM BOTTOM -- THAT COULD LEAD TO DECEMBER REBOUND TO OVERHEAD RESISTANCE

by John Murphy

S&P 500 MAY BE FORMING SHORT-TERM BOTTOM My message from last Friday suggested that the S&P 500 was likely to drop below its October low, which could lead to a retest of its early 2018 lows (more on that last point shortly). Chart 1 shows Monday's early price drop pushing the S&P 500 to the lowest level since early April on an intra-day basis. By day's  Read More

Mind the Gaps in L Brands

by Arthur Hill

A long-term downtrend, two gaps down and a move back below the falling 200-day could spell trouble for L Brands. The stock has been quite volatile since summer, but the overall trend remains down. LB hit a 52-week low in early September, the 50-day SMA (not shown) is below the 200-day SMA, the 200-day SMA is falling and price is back below the 200-day SMA. The stock gapped above the 200-day SMA  Read More

Double + For Utilities And Real Estate On Relative Rotation Graph

by Julius de Kempenaer

The market keeps throwing us curve balls on a daily basis. The Relative Rotation Graph above translates these curve balls into (sector-) rotational patterns. The weekly chart above shows continuing strength for Utilities and Real Estate as they continue to move higher on both axes of the RRG. Staples and Healthcare are still comfortable inside the boundaries of the leading quadrant but lost a  Read More

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Bearish Patterns Taking Shape in EW Sectors and Semiconductor ETFs/Stocks

by Arthur Hill

Bearish Patterns in Big EW Sectors. Internal Weakness Hits Consumer Staples. Semiconductor ETFs Bounce after Breakdowns. Intel Fails at 200-day as Broadcom Breaks Out. Four more Wedge Breaks. On Trend on Youtube. Bearish Patterns in Big EW Sectors While the sector SPDRs capture what is happening with large-cap stocks, the equal-weight sectors provide a more balanced  Read More

Early Gains Wiped Out As U.S. Equities Finish In Bifurcated Fashion

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, December 11, 2018 Volatile action on Tuesday resulted in a bifurcated market.  The NASDAQ managed to cling to gains at the close, while the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 saw early morning gains turn into losses by the close.  Leadership came mostly from defensive areas of the market as consumer staples (XLP, +0.82%), utilities (XLU, +0.41%)  Read More

12/11 MWL Recap: "Shorting Strategies" with Tom Bowley - Technical Scans

by Erin Swenlin

Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Our show is devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and analysis of hot symbols. The show runs throughout the day on  StockCharts TV; you can also find the latest episodes on the YouTube StockCharts  Read More

Is Shopify On Your Shopping List?

by Greg Schnell

Shopify appears to have all the makings of a stock ready for its next move. Relative strength is starting to rise, full stochastics are striding higher, the stock is about to break a 6-month resistance line and the PPO is resetting at zero! This high growth stock is really looking good. Considering how tight a stop under this week's low would be, this looks all set to rise. If it  Read More

S&P 500 Touches MAJOR Price Support; One Ingredient Missing For Bear Market

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, December 10, 2018 Yesterday was significant for one very important technical development.  The February 2018 low close of 2582 was within a whisker on Monday as the S&P 500 hit an intraday low of 2583 before rallying strongly.  Technology (XLK, +1.38%) led the rebound, followed by communication services (XLC, +0.76%) and healthcare (XLV, +0.39%)  Read More