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Capturing the US stock market from different angles using Relative Rotation Graphs

by Julius de Kempenaer

Instead of showing asset class rotation or sector rotation, Relative Rotation Graphs can also be used to show rotation among various market segments. You have all seen or heard about a breakdown of the market in large-, mid-, and small-cap stocks. And maybe also the breakdown between growth and value stocks. The stock market can be seen from a lot of different angles. The good news is that  Read More

Throwback Thursday for Cerner

by Arthur Hill

Cerner (CERN) remains in a long-term downtrend, but the stock broke a resistance level and pulled back to this breakout zone, which now turns into support. This is called a throwback and it could offer a second chance to partake in the breakout. First and foremost, CERN is in the early stages of a long-term trend reversal, at best. The long-term trend is still down because the 50-day EMA  Read More

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STOCKS IN STRONG REBOUND AFTER SURIVING TEST OF 50-DAY AVERAGES YESTERDAY -- ALL SECTORS ARE IN THE BLACK

by John Murphy

MAJOR STOCK AVERAGES REBOUND SHARPLY U.S. stock indexes are having an unusually strong day. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing more than 400 points (1.6%) in afternoon trading. The Dow tested its 50-day average yesterday and held. Chart 2 shows the S&P 500 trading 1% higher. Yesteday's pullback held above its June peak and 50-day average as well. Chart 3 shows  Read More

This Is How I Use The RSI

by Tom Bowley

Note I'll be traveling and on vacation this week, so my blog articles will focus on very brief topics regarding current market themes or my own trading strategies.  I'll return to my "normal" blog postings regarding market action, outlook, historical tendencies, etc. when I return on Monday, August 20th. Thursday, August 16th If you've noticed, I generally include the RSI on nearly  Read More

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More Evidence Of A Commodity Bear Market

by Martin Pring

Commodities starting to generate some long-term sell signals Internals and commodity   intermarket relationships are deteriorating Energy has been lagging on the downside but may be ready to play catch up Earlier in the summer I wrote a couple of articles on copper and oil suggesting some short-term vulnerability, but concluding that there was insufficient evidence to identify a  Read More

Canadian Markets Follow Through On Weak Breadth Conditions

by Greg Schnell

  Don't forget Chartcon 2018. You can still get access to watch all the recordings of the presenters and the question period. I would suggest taking the time to watch the ChartCon 2018 presentations. The diversity of ideas filled the spectrum of investing styles. The Canadian market has been making lower  Read More

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FOREIGN STOCKS LEAD U.S. LOWER -- EMERGING MARKETS AND EAFE ISHARES FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL IN A YEAR

by John Murphy

FOREIGN STOCK ETFS FALL TO NEW LOWS Last Thursday's message expressed concern that weakness in foreign stocks could start to weigh on U.S. stocks, especially with the S&P 500 testing major resistance at its January high. That dangerous situation has taken a turn for the worse. Chart 1 shows the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) tumbling to the lowest level  Read More

Combining The PPO And 20 Day EMA For Short-Term Trading

by Tom Bowley

Note I'll be traveling and on vacation this week, so my blog articles will focus on very brief topics regarding current market themes or my own trading strategies.  I'll return to my "normal" blog postings regarding market action, outlook, historical tendencies, etc. when I return on Monday, August 20th. Wednesday, August 15th I trade companies where revenue and EPS estimates have  Read More

BP Looks Weak Here

by Greg Schnell

BP has been moving nicely to the upside for the last few years. This week the stock has touched an important level of support. The real question is what happens now? First of all, all our indicators are pointed sown so we don't need to rush in to buy this dip. Everything seems to be getting weaker. What I am more concerned with is the PPO (momentum) has broken a long uptrend on this weekly  Read More

Beneficiaries Of A Strengthening Dollar

by Tom Bowley

Note I'll be traveling and on vacation this week, so my blog articles will focus on very brief topics regarding current market themes or my own trading strategies.  I'll return to my "normal" blog postings regarding market action, outlook, historical tendencies, etc. when I return on Monday, August 20th. Tuesday, August 14th Yesterday, I wrote about the recent breakout in the U.S  Read More

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An Island Reversal for SPY - Minding the Gap

by Arthur Hill

An Island Reversal for SPY. XLI and Lead the Gap Parade. SOXX Leads Tech Lower with Gap. IAI Forges Lower Highs. ITB Hits New Low for Year. Utes and Telecom Hold Up. There were short-term reversals last week as a number of stocks and ETFs gapped up on Tuesday and then gapped down last Friday. The S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) provides a good example of this reversal. In fact, SPY even formed an  Read More

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Getting Through The Old Highs Could Be A Challenge

by Martin Pring

Last week's test of the highs leaves a lot to be desired Breadth and momentum indicators fail to confirm Some international charts not looking so good Last week's test of the highs leaves a lot to be desired If the charts in this article look a little bumpy it's because I am sending this out during the StockCharts cruise to Alaska, and the ship is swaying a bit as we head  Read More

Value seems to be taking over from growth while small-caps are losing ground

by Julius de Kempenaer

Every now and then I run a Relative Rotation Graph showing the rotation of various size and value/growth indices for the US market. They (can) give good insights into what areas of the stock market are in favor and which ones are rotating out of favor. At the moment these rotational patterns are showing a loss of relative momentum for small-cap stocks and a rotation from growth to value, at  Read More

Dollar Breakout Signals Resurgence In Small Cap Relative Strength

by Tom Bowley

Note I'll be traveling and on vacation this week, so my blog articles will focus on very brief topics regarding current market themes or my own trading strategies.  I'll return to my "normal" blog postings regarding market action, outlook, historical tendencies, etc. when I return on Monday, August 20th. Monday, August 13th I had been awaiting a dollar breakout and it's happened  Read More

A Ballistic Move In The Dollar 2018-08-12 Video

by Greg Schnell

It seems like most weeks I start this article with a discussion of the dollar. This week will be no exception. The Dollar subtly broke above resistance. Actually, no, that is not what happened. The dollar popped like a champagne cork above resistance and there was nothing subtle about the move. Currency charts all over the world snapped through meaningful levels. A few currencies stayed in  Read More

Anadarko Gets a Mean-Reversion Bounce

by Arthur Hill

Anadarko Petroleum (APC) has had quite a good year with a 25% gain in 2018 and 52-week highs in June and July. The stock fell over the last five weeks, but this decline is viewed as a correction within a bigger uptrend. Moreover, RSI became oversold and a mean-reversion bounce is now in play. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up because the stock hit a new high in July, the 50-day EMA  Read More

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Weekly Market Review and Outlook (with Video) - Small-Caps Lead and Bonds Spring

by Arthur Hill

Weekly Performance Review. Market Overview. A Correction for the S&P 500? First Levels to Watch for SPY. QQQ Double Top - NOT! IJR is Holding up Just Fine. XLV, XLK and XLY are Leading. XLI and XLF Hit Resistance. XLE Remains Stuck (plus XES). Oil Corrects within Uptrend. XLB Fails to Hold Bounce. TLT Surges off Support (plus $TNX). Industry Group ETF Highlights. Today's report comes to you  Read More

DP Weekly Wrap: Skinny Breakout Fails

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I said I expected to see new, all-time highs for SPY, and on Monday that expectation was fulfilled in a marginal way. While I didn't say I expected that the market would close higher this week, it was implied, but the market's low volume and lack of follow through on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday made Friday's pullback not unexpected. It was assumed that Turkey's currency crisis  Read More

Banks Showing Renewed Strength; ChartCon FINAL CALL

by Tom Bowley

ChartCon Starts Today! If you haven't already, I'd highly recommend that you join me and many of my StockCharts.com colleagues from around the globe for ChartCon 2018.  We did our rehearsals and walkthroughs yesterday and my great friend Greg Schnell kicks off the conference in less than an hour, discussing high potential setups.  He'll be followed by many of the world's  Read More

Bank Of America (BAC) Approaches Former Highs

by Greg Schnell

Bank of America (BAC) is approaching the highs hit back in March. This is technically an important setup for the stock. In the big picture, the March 2018 high had a lot less momentum than the March 2017 high as shown by the PPO indicator.  As the stock rallies up to the old highs, the PPO momentum is bouncing off the zero level. This can mean the stock is making a reset in momentum  Read More

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U.S. STOCKS MAY BE GETTING TOO FAR AHEAD OF THE REST OF THE WORLD -- U.S. STOCKS USUALLY DO BETTER WHEN FOREIGN STOCKS ARE ALSO RISING

by John Murphy

S&P 500 IS TESTING ITS JANUARY HIGH The black bars in Chart 1 show the S&P 500 nearing a test of its January high. That's an important test for it and the rest of the market. A test of a previous high is very important, especially in a bull market that's in its tenth year. There aren't a lot of technical reasons to suspect that the test won't be successful  Read More

When Financials Lead On A Relative Basis, This Usually Happens

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, August 8, 2018 Wall Street ended Wednesday's action in a bifurcated state as the NASDAQ withstood a final 20 minute selloff to finish with a slight 4 point gain.  The other major indices finished lower, but just fractionally so.  In sector performance, slight gains were felt in technology (XLK, +0.27%) and financials (XLF, +0.25%).  It was important to  Read More

DP Alert: New PMO BUY Signal on NDX - Dollar Pulls Back a Little More

by Erin Swenlin

The DecisionPoint Scoreboards are nearly all "green" with BUY signals. Today the NDX completed its green Scoreboard with a PMO BUY signal on the daily chart. The Technology Sector (XLK) and the NDX ETF (QQQ) also logged new Short-Term PMO BUY signals. It appears the tech sector is coming back with a roar. I see a bullish confirmation between PMO bottoms and price bottoms as well as OBV and  Read More

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LONG-RANGE DOLLAR UPTREND REMAINS INTACT -- LATE CYCLE COMMODITY UPTURN IS UNLIKELY WITH A RISING DOLLAR

by John Murphy

LONG-TERM TREND OF THE DOLLAR IS STILL UP The direction of the U.S. dollar is important because it influences (or is influenced by) by a lot of other markets. That includes commodities, global interest rates, and global stocks. Dollar direction also influences the relative performance of small cap stocks in the states, and various stock sectors. So let's see which way it's going. The  Read More

Energy And Industrials Lead Wall Street Rally, But Here's The Bullish News

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, August 7, 2018 It was another nice rally on Wall Street, led by energy (XLE, +0.74%) and industrials (XLI, +0.71%).  Since the beginning of July, we've seen renewed strength in larger cap stocks.  Industials, along with financials (XLF, +0.46%) have been the biggest beneficiaries of that theme change.  The XLI broke out to a multi-month high last week  Read More

Relative Rotation Graphs can show (much) more than just equity sectors (extended)

by Julius de Kempenaer

Relative Rotation Graphs are a great tool to visualize equity sector rotation and they are probably most used for that purpose. However, there are many more areas where RRGs can be used to get a big picture view of what is going on among a group of securities or related financial instruments. A shorter version of this article appeared in the Chartwatchers newsletter of  Saturday 8/4  Read More

Dollar Gains Momentum, PMO BUY Signal Triggered

by Erin Swenlin

Yesterday's breakout on UUP was impressive and although the Dollar pulled back slightly today, it didn't matter to the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) as it crossed its signal line and triggered a BUY signal. While studying the OHLC chart for UUP, I realized if I looked at the closing prices only, there is a clear ascending triangle and yesterday it executed with the breakout above overhead  Read More

8/7 MWL Recap - "State of the Market" with Tom, Erin and Arthur Hill - Anatomy of a Trade

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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FINANCIAL SPDR ACHIEVES BULLISH BREAKOUT -- INDUSTRIAL SPDR MAY BE NEXT

by John Murphy

FINANCIALS SPDR BREAKS OUT Global stocks are having a strong day. Rebounds in foreign developed and emerging markets set the tone for higher trading in the states. All major U.S. indexes are in the black, as are most stock sectors. The strongest sectors are energy, financials, industrials, and materials. The only ones in the red are staples, utilities, and REITS. Financials are  Read More

Weight of the Evidence

by Greg Morris

In my recent Building a Rules-Based Trend Following Model series, I talked extensively about the Weight of the Evidence.  This is my measure to tell me what the market is doing based upon nine different technical measures made up of price, breadth, and relative strength (PBR, like the beer).  Tushar Chande introduced a substitute for your use with his Chande Trend Meter (CTM) in a  Read More

Is The Mouse House Going Vertical? (DIS)

by Greg Schnell

With all the attention late last year on Disney with the ESPN subscription levels, the cast at Disney announced they were launching their own 'over the top' service. In July, Disney secured the buying of 21st Century Fox for $71 Billion. Needless to say, that investment is more than just a casual 'filling in some gaps' for Disney. At the completion of the deal, it is estimated Disney will  Read More

Small Caps Ready To Flourish With Dollar Surge? Watch This Signal

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Monday, August 6, 2018 The Russell 2000 and NASDAQ paced a day of strength on Wall Street as they gained 0.65% and 0.61%, respectively.  The S&P 500 and Dow Jones enjoyed smaller gains as money rotated back towards more aggressive areas.  The 10 year treasury yield bounced at near-term yield support at 2.925%, a positive for equities: Two weeks ago, the TNX broke  Read More

8/6 MWL Recap - Monday Set-Ups - Earnings Spotlight - DecisionPoint Report

by Erin Swenlin

  Welcome to the recap of today's MarketWatchers LIVE show, your antidote for the CNBC/FBN lunchtime talking heads. Listen and watch a show devoted to technical analysis of the stock market with live market updates and symbols that are hot. The show runs throughout the day on StockCharts TV or you can find the latest episode on the  Read More

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Are We Seeing The Early Sign Of A Change In Market Leadership?

by Martin Pring

The Inflation/Deflation ratio Lagging sectors Defensive sectors The Inflation/Deflation ratio Last week I charted my Inflation/deflation ratio for the first time in a while and was surprised to see that it had broken to the downside. For those unfamiliar with the concept, the Inflation Ratio (!PRII) consists of S&P sectors that have a tendency to do well  Read More

Commodities Trade Sideways 2018-08-05 Video

by Greg Schnell

Most of the commodities traded within their range of the last month. Wheat and corn were the exceptions. The $USD pushed to its highest weekly close but still trading in the range around 95. The energy markets all traded below their 50 day moving average to close out the week. Industrial metals had a mixed week but no real price direction of significance. Here are the heating oil  Read More

Friday Action Bifurcated As Dollar Awaiting Bullish Breakout

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, August 3, 2018 The stock market has clearly turned more defensive over the past 2-3 months and Friday was another perfect example of that.  The more aggressive small cap Russell 2000 was the laggard, dropping 0.52%.  Meanwhile, the NASDAQ produced only a minor 0.12% gain.  The Dow Jones and S&P 500, however, were higher by 0.54% and 0.46%,  Read More

Gilead Gets another Bollinger Band Squeeze

by Arthur Hill

Gilead is in the midst of its fourth Bollinger Band squeeze in the past year. The last four instances foreshadowed pretty strong moves so I will be watching the current squeeze closely for the next directional clue. A Bollinger Band squeeze occurs when the bands contract and the  Read More

Homework Assignment

by Bruce Fraser

ChartCon 2018 is fast approaching and preparations are being made. Let's take a few minutes during this busy week to study some charts. For contrast we will compare the NASDAQ Composite, which is one of the leadership indexes, to the Dow Jones Industrials, which is a laggard.  A big thank you to fellow Wyckoffian, Roman Bogomazov, for his collaboration in the preparation of these charts  Read More

Are Railroads Still Rolling In Profits?

by Greg Schnell

Just a reminder, I am the opening speaker kicking off Chartcon 2018 on Friday morning, August 10th! DON'T BE LATE! I hope to be one of the strongest presentations to kick this off. While I love the SCTR, my presentation this year will be a totally different method of simply finding great set ups based on some of the biggest names in Technical Analysis. I am up against some fabulous speakers so  Read More

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DEFENSIVE STOCKS ARE LEADING THE MARKET HIGHER -- CONSUMER STAPLES SPDR TURNS UP AND SHOWS MARKET LEADERSHIP

by John Murphy

CONSUMER STAPLES TURN UP Although the stock market continued to climb this week, it's a little surprising to see defensive stocks leading it higher. The four strongest sectors this past week were REITs (+3.3%), healthcare (+2.1%), consumer staples (+1.7%), and utilities (+1.2%). All did better than the S&P 500 weekly gain of +0.7%. At the same time, more economically-sensitive  Read More