DecisionPoint

Carl Swenlin
About the authors: is a veteran technical analyst who has been actively engaged in market analysis since 1981. He was the founder of DecisionPoint, one of the web's premier market timing and technical signal services, which was acquired by StockCharts.com in 2013. Carl has contributed his market commentary and expert analysis to StockCharts since then. He is a Member of the CMT Association.

Erin Swenlin
Carl's daughter, helped him create and manage the DecisionPoint.com website and launched the DecisionPoint daily blog with Carl in 2009. Erin hosts the MarketWatchers LIVE web show at StockCharts.com, and is also a Member of the CMT Association.

Latest Posts

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Market Quiet Ahead of Fed; Gold Has Long-Term "Smile"

by Carl Swenlin

Sometimes I can be a little slow on the uptake, and the monthly gold chart is the latest example. This week it dawned on me that gold is in its seventh year of forming a bullish saucer, which would be the reverse equivalent of a bearish rounded top. After activating the Crystal Ball feature of SharpCharts, I am seeing the possibility of breakout and pullback, which would put a handle on the saucer, giving us a "saucer with handle" formation. It could, of course, resolve differently because of imperfections in the crystal ball feature, as well as pilot error, but for now, I am long-term Read More 

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DP Alert Mid-Week: SPX IT Trend Model BUY Signal

by Erin Swenlin

Today's Scoreboard shows a few changes, but I'm afraid these new BUY signals are arriving late. The NDX finally caught up with short-term BUY signals, and today we saw the SPX click a new IT Trend Model BUY signal when the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here! Read More 

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DP Bulletin: New ST Buy Signals Galore on Scoreboards

by Erin Swenlin

On Friday, $INDU logged both a Short-Term Trend Model BUY Signal and a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. Today, the SPX and OEX joined the party. The NDX is extraordinarily close to those same BUY signals and should switch tomorrow. Notice that, on price, today's high pierced the resistance at the May top. However, we did see a close near the open for the day, which is generally a sign of exhaustion. The OBV is beginning to form a reverse divergence. The next OBV top will be the highest of the past year, but price still won't Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Volume Ratio Spikes Flag ST Market Turns

by Carl Swenlin

Some time ago on StockCharts TV I discussed volume ratios and how higher than normal ratios help identify climactic events and possible turning points. This week on Tuesday we had such an event when the  SPX up volume divided by down volume produced a ratio of over 15. I have identified it as an initiation climax because price action on that day broke a down trend and initiated a move to the upside. On the chart below in May we can also see a down volume divided by up volume ratio of over 17, which I tagged as an exhaustion climax --  price reversed the next day. However, as Read More 

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DP Alert Mid-Week: Gold Already at Resistance - Record Breaking New Highs

by Erin Swenlin

The number I've heard tossed around over the past few weeks regarding a gold rally is a move to $1340. Well, in just a few days, we have popped above that, and the chart suggests we will continue to see more rallying. This week's climactic indicator chart recorded the highest reading of the year for the number of New Highs in the SPX. It smells like a buying exhaustion, especially when compared to other breadth indicators.  The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market Read More 

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DP WEEKLY/MONTHLY WRAP: Intermediate-Term Trend Model Back to NEUTRAL from BUY

by Carl Swenlin

Today the SPY 20EMA crossed down through the 50EMA and the IT Trend Model for SPY changed from BUY to NEUTRAL. As usual, this signal is an information flag to encourage us to take a closer look at the situation. In this case, the price breakdown is associated with a double top, and is quite similar to the NEUTRAL signal generated in October. We cannot know the future, but it is hard not to imagine a decline of similar depth and velocity to the October-December decline. It probably won't happen that way, but it's a plan. The DecisionPoint Weekly Read More 

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DP Alert: Scoreboard Indexes Nearing Neutral Signals - More Whipsaw on UUP PMO

by Erin Swenlin

I was somewhat surprised that the SPX, NDX and OEX did not lose their IT Trend Model BUY signals today. However, I would look for those signal changes tomorrow after the close. In order to avoid these Neutral signals, price would need to climb above the 50-EMA. As you can see from the charts below, that is highly unlikely. The DecisionPoint Alert presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: "Golden Cross" Index Generates SELL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

When the 50EMA crosses up through the 200EMA, it is commonly known as a "Golden Cross," because it signals the potential for a long-term bullish outcome. For the sake of consistency, in DecisionPoint parlance we refer to the 50/200EMA relationship as the Long-Term Trend Model (LTTM), which generates BUY or SELL signals when the 50EMA moves above or below the 200EMA. About a year ago I began collecting data on the percentage of LTTM BUY Signals among S&P 500 component stocks. The chart below shows the SPX LTTM index, and a 20EMA serves as the index signal line. Note that this week the Read More 

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DP Mid-Week Review: ST Indicators Top Too Soon - TLT Stalling at Resistance

by Erin Swenlin

No changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. The short-term is still weak; our short-term Swenlin Trading Oscillators turned down this week after barely reaching positive territory. TLT rallied further but was unable to push past strong resistance at the March high. The DP Mid-Week Review presents a mid-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil and Bonds. Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV's YouTube channel here! Read More 

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DP WEEKLY WRAP: Double Top Scenario Still Fits

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I asserted that the market was in the process of forming a major double top. This week, in spite of some price action attempting to refute that assertion, the double top is still evolving. So far the rally attempt appears to have failed, and the thin volume says that there is not as much conviction behind the rally as there ought to be. Specifically, I am referring to the SPX Volume panel below. Note that there was a high volume day on Monday's decline, but volume for the rest of the week was well below the one-year average of volume. Read More 

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