We had three new signal changes hit the DecisionPoint Scoreboards on Friday (4/21). When I reviewed the weekly charts on Friday, I noted that the Price Momentum Oscillators (PMOs) had finally crossed below their signal lines on all but the NDX (which retains its current BUY signal).
One positive to note on all of these charts is that today's strong rally has already begun to pull at the weekly PMOs causing some deceleration. The margin is thin between the PMOs and their signal lines, so a sustained rally this week could conceivably whipsaw these PMOs back into BUY signals. If this rally isn't sticky, I would expect to see these SELL signals remain comfortably intact.
Here's a quick peek at the NDX weekly chart for comparison. A very different configuration. Price broke out of the rising trend channel is in the process of establishing a slightly steeper rising trend. I like that price has remained above support along the top of the rising trend channel. And notice that the PMO looks quite different from the other three, it is rising and easily holding on to its PMO BUY signal.
Conclusion: Although we are seeing bearish momentum on the SPX, INDU and OEX, the NDX is holding onto bullish momentum. With today's very strong rally, I do expect to see higher prices this week and that will likely get us whipsaw BUY signals.
Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.