Gold Discounts are Historically High

Erin Swenlin

Erin Swenlin


DecisionPoint Alert Logo

As we looked at yesterday's Discount for the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) we realized it was one of the lowest readings on record since data started being collected in 2010.

Closed-end funds like PHYS can sell at a premium or discount to their net asset value (NAV) which is based on the price of physical Gold in the trust. We have about twelve years of premium/discount data on the closed-end fund Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). We use that data to gauge gold sentiment -- premium readings show bullish sentiment, and discount readings show bearish sentiment.

We are taught to think of sentiment as being a contrary indicator, but that is not always the case. It is only contrary within a certain context. For example, if gold is trending up, we should expect sentiment to be positive, and vice versa. It is when it becomes 'excessively' positive (or negative) that it becomes contrarian. Current conditions provide us with a good example.

This is a monthly chart going back to 2010 when we started tracking discounts and premiums on PHYS. Readings are incredibly negative. We put the readings on a spreadsheet and yesterday's reading -2.27 was #24 on the list. Today's reading was -2.24 (number #29 on the list). The highest discount on record is -3.58.

Conclusion: What does this all mean? Looking at the chart, it could mean an upside reversal is coming based strictly on sentiment. The double-top on the monthly chart isn't encouraging, but price lows do seem to follow higher discounts over time.

Join Erin at ChartCon 2022! It's going to be an entertaining and high learning environment for investors! Erin will be debating her friend, Tom Bowley on where the SPX will go. It's no secret that Tom is a bull and Erin is a bear. Come see their take on where the market is likely headed into the end of 2022. Click HERE to learn more! Recordings will be available for all attendees.

Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. --Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2022

Helpful DecisionPoint Links:

DecisionPoint Alert Chart List

DecisionPoint Golden Cross/Silver Cross Index Chart List

DecisionPoint Sector Chart List

DecisionPoint Chart Gallery

Trend Models

Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)

On Balance Volume

Swenlin Trading Oscillators (STO-B and STO-V)


SCTR Ranking

Bear Market Rules

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

Erin Swenlin
About the author: is a co-founder of the website along with her father, Carl Swenlin. She launched the DecisionPoint daily blog in 2009 alongside Carl and now serves as a consulting technical analyst and blog contributor at Erin is an active Member of the CMT Association. She holds a Master's degree in Information Resource Management from the Air Force Institute of Technology as well as a Bachelor's degree in Mathematics from the University of Southern California. Learn More