It would seem logical that falling crude oil prices ($WTIC) would help propel airlines ($DJUSAR) higher and rising crude oil prices would have the opposite effect. In the second half of 2014 and into early 2015, that was the case. The same scenario developed over the summer of 2015. More recently, however, crude oil prices tumbled just below $30 per barrel, but apparently the market believes crude prices this low says more about future economic activity than anything else. As a result, it's not benefiting the DJUSAR as you can see on the chart below:
The DJUSAR tested 205 support on a few occasions during 2015 and held each time. We're zeroing in on another test of this key level. As a side note, airlines have been the worst performing industry group within the industrials sector over the past month despite crude oil prices falling approximately 20% over the same time frame.
Happy trading!
Tom
