Analyzing India

Milan Vaishnav
About the author: , CMT, MSTA is an Independent Technical Research Analyst at his Research Firm, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services in Vadodara, India. With his experience in the Indian Capital Markets of over 15 years, he has been delivering premium India-focused Independent Technical Research and presently contributes on a daily basis to ET Markets and The Economic Times of India. He also authors India-focused "Daily / Weekly Market Outlook" - A Daily / Weekly Newsletter, currently in its 15th year of publication. Learn More

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Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Odds Stacked Against A Sustainable Breakout; 11760 Still Remains Important To Watch

by Milan Vaishnav

The past week was quite eventful for the Indian equity markets. The short 3-day working week saw the benchmark index NIFTY50 marking a fresh high and attempting a breakout. Along with that, it also saw the NIFTY not confirming this breakout, slipping below the all-important 11760 mark once again. This week was also the third week in a row where the markets did not make any major directional move, ending with a net weekly gain of 109.35 points (+0.94%). The coming week will see the expiry of the current derivative series and is likely to Read More 

Analyzing India

Graphite India - Showing Good Potential Among Non-Index Stocks

by Milan Vaishnav

Graphite India Limited - GRAPHITE.IN GRAPHITE looks to be confirming its bottom in the 395-415 zone. After marking a low near 395, the stock has formed a base in the 395-415 zone; having experienced a sideways move over past couple of weeks, a breakout appears likely. The RSI, which is a leading indicator, has already marked a fresh high with a bullish divergence. It can be seen breaking out of a pattern formation and moving higher. The volumes increased heavily while the stock marked its lows, something that often marks a potential bottom. Read More 

Analyzing India

Special Note: When VIX Defies Its Inverse Relationship With NIFTY...

by Milan Vaishnav

The Volatility Index, more commonly known as the VIX, is a measurement of market's expected volatility in the future. Analysts and investors alike look at this tool to measure sentiment while making investment decisions. The VIX reflects the psychology of market participants' fear and greed and is often referred to as "Fear Gauge" or "Fear Index." The correlation between Indian VIX and the benchmark NIFTY50 is typically negative. We would always find VIX at low levels when the index is at its high point and VIX at high levels when the markets are trying to find a Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Truncated Short Week To See Capped Upsides; Charts Offer Important Signals To Read

by Milan Vaishnav

This was the second week in a row where the Indian equity markets did not make any significant directional move. The week that went by remained particularly volatile, as the market oscillated back and forth on each side in a defined range while continuing to resist to the lower trend line of the rising channel it breached on the downside in late 2018. While heading nowhere, the benchmark index NIFTY50 ended with a net weekly loss of 22.50 points (-0.19%). The coming week will be a very short 3-day week. Wednesday and Friday are trading Read More 

Analyzing India

SBILIFE Offers Some Upside Potential

by Milan Vaishnav

SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd (SBILIFE.IN) This stock has a relatively short listing history. It originally listed in October 2017 and marked its high near 772 in middle of 2018, with a subsequent low near 483 in the corrective move that followed in late 2018. Presently, the stock is set to offer some upside potential. A large Symmetrical Triangle is seen on the daily charts. As the price attempts to move out, we can see a sharp rise in On-Balance Volume (OBV), which acts as a strength on the volume front. The PPO has turned positive and MACD has shown a positive Read More 

Analyzing India

Complex Inverted H&S Formation on ULTRACEMCO; Higher Delivery Percentage May Give Directional Clues

by Milan Vaishnav

A couple of days back, the NIFTY marked a classical Double Top at the 11760 level. The benchmark index has halted its up move and can be seen consolidating just below that level. Over the coming days, the markets are expected to remain highly stock-specific. Right now, ULTRACEMCO.IN deserves some attention. If we analyze the data of previous 6 weeks, ULTRACEMCO has seen an average of 38% of its total volumes being marked for delivery. Over the past several sessions, we have seen the delivery percentage figure going much higher than its average.  Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Markets Placed On Tricky Turf; Would Be Sensible To Stick To Defensive Stocks

by Milan Vaishnav

The Indian equity markets had a volatile week, ultimately ending on a flat note. In our previous weekly outlook, we had mentioned the possibility of the market stalling its up-move and showing some corrective intent. After volatile trading throughout the week, it was the last hour of trade on Friday which caused the week to end with minor gains. Had it not been for this last-minute pullback on Friday, the week would have still ended flatly, but with a negative note. The headline index NIFTY50 settled with a net weekly gain of 42.05 points (+0.36%). As we Read More 

Analyzing India

Some Insights From The NIFTY Premiums

by Milan Vaishnav

As we know, a futures instrument derives its value from its respective underlying asset. For example, the NIFTY futures instrument derives its value from the NIFTY's spot price. Though the futures price and the price of its underlying move in the same direction, they do not maintain the same distance from each other. For example, the futures price may be equal to the spot price, but it can also be less than or greater from the spot price. Thus, the futures can be said to be trading at par (equal to the spot price), with a premium (greater than the spot price) or at discount (less than Read More 

Analyzing India

Week Ahead: Caution Advised for Momentum-Chasers; Stalling Of Up-Move Should Not Come As A Surprise

by Milan Vaishnav

With the session that ended Friday, March 29, 2019, the markets ended a remarkable month which remained one of the best out of the past several quarters. NIFTY ended the month on a strong note, posting a monthly gain of 831.40 points (+7.70). After taking a breather in earlier weeks, the liquidity gush that resulted out of unabated FII inflows lent some more strength to the markets this week. While it remained somewhat volatile, the benchmark index NIFTY50 ended with net gains of 167 points (+1.46%) on a weekly basis. During any such liquidity-driven rally, sometimes technicals do tend to Read More 

Analyzing India

Derivative Expiry: Options Data Point Towards This Level Being An Inflection Point For The Markets

by Milan Vaishnav

The NIFTY50 ($NIFTY) saw an unexpected surge in trading on Tuesday, ultimately ending the session with decent gains. The expiry of the current derivative series is to come up on Thursday, March 28; the Options data on NIFTY throws up some useful insights. Let's examine the 10 ATM Options for NIFTY, which expires Thursday, March 28, 2019. The picture above shows highest Call OI built up at 11500 levels. The strike price, which is where the highest Call OI is built up, often acts as resistance in the immediate short term. In all likelihood, the 11500 level is likely to pose good Read More 

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