Last night, I wrote about the compression in the weekly gold chart. Today, gold closed green, but did not take out 162 (GLD) or the top of last week's trading range high.
This is super exciting to watch unfold. Will it clear? And, if so, how far can the price go up? Plus, what are the real ramifications for the market?
Elsewhere, we have our Economic Modern Family telling its own story. Remember how I covered channels and wedges on the weekly charts through blogs and StockChartsTV?
Well, that was Season 1. Today began Season 2.
The clear divergence between the up action in gold and the down action in stocks is noteworthy!
The Russell 2000 (IWM), which showed us some promise last week, is now trading under the channel support line. Sure, it can find support on the way down, but until it gets back over 130, I would not be so quick to buy. Granny Retail (XRT) traveled right to the mall or the channel resistance, then turned back. Prodigal Son Regional Banks (KRE) was the first to tell us that something was amiss with the newfound bullishness. Transportation (IYT), like Granny, never cleared the channel resistance and now trades near the early April lows.
Perhaps the most interesting are the two superstars of the Family, Big Brother Biotechnology (IBB) and Sister Semiconductors (SMH). IBB is now touching the top of channel it traded in for the last five years. That's huge. For those like us who did not buy it on this week's pop, you can now decide if this correction gives us a very cheap risk or not.
SMH, or the big recent tech run, never has legs for too long once she realizes that her superwoman strength is not enough to save the rest of the Family. Now, she has broken back down below the bottom channel line. But not by too much. Like IBB, if the market holds from here, a move back over 132 is worth considering risking below the 50-Week Moving Average at 125.77 (blue line).
If the lesson from gold today is a foreshadowing, then do not be in a rush to go long. Or, if you do, keep the timeframes shorter.
- S&P 500 (SPY): 285 resistance, 278 support
- Russell 2000 (IWM): Landed right on the 50-DMA at 120.25; major support
- Dow (DIA): Landed right on the 50-DMA at 229.90; major support
- Nasdaq (QQQ): 221.80 resistance with 209 next major support
- KRE (Regional Banks): 30.00 held & must hold; 33.13 is the resistance.
- SMH (Semiconductors): 132 pivotal, 125.70 support
- IYT (Transportation): 140 resistance, 136.40 support
- IBB (Biotechnology): 128 still key - with some fudge of course
- XRT (Retail): 33.50 support, 37.15 resistance
- Volatility Index (VXX): Closed under 40.00. A gap above compelling
- LQD (iShs iBoxx High Yield Bonds): 127.50 resistance
Mish Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trading Research and Education
