The malls were high risk before COVID-19, given the number of bankruptcies of chain stores such as Pier One (PIRRQ) and Toy "R" Us. Online shopping was already leading malls to become like ghost towns. Now, with COVID-19, one would expect the high risk to go to full on death and destruction.
Just this week, Ann Taylor and Brooks Brothers, two mall staples, filed for bankruptcy. And who is going to the malls now given social distancing? Well that's the rub.
It is possible that, after sitting on our butts and moving nothing more than our hands over the keyboard to shop for the last several months, malls could make a comeback. And why do I say such a crazy thing? Just look at our sweet little Granny Retail, donned in a leisure suit, just itching to take some mall laps and use her credit card.
After all, is that not the American Economic Modern Family's matriarch?
On the weekly chart, XRT is above the 200-week moving average, while her husband, Russell 2000 (IWM) is not. The 10-DMA is starting to accelerate and just crossed over the 50-WMA (blue line).
XRT is in a weekly accumulation phase. Let that soak in.
Furthermore, it is well outperforming our benchmark. And our Real Motion indicator shows momentum has gained. If XRT can clear the Bollinger Band on RM, as well as the 45.00 level in price on a weekly close, Gramps IWM and Transportation (IYT) are likely to follow.
And that, my friends, is the number 1 hope to see for the market and the economy. A consumer-based recovery will have me running around the malls as well - only with a mask on, though!
I've been busy lately talking about Granny, the Financial sector and commodities lately. Here are this week's links thus far.
- FACE Interview, July 8th 2020 - Gold: We took partial profits in PM's after this run higher. https://www.forexanalytix.com/webinars?v=NvIihBaObsY&feature=youtu.be
- Trader Rundown 07-07-20, Angela Miles:
- Ameritrade Network - Market Overtime, July 7,2020: https://tdameritradenetwork.com/video/rB4AoXMqGJ-BcytFdVsAYw
- S&P 500 (SPY): 318.22 is a gap that must fill. 315 pivotal, 310 support
- Russell 2000 (IWM): 141, then 137 support; 146.25 resistance
- Dow (DIA): 257 support, 262.50 resistance
- Nasdaq (QQQ): Inverted hammer doji yesterday - inside day today.
- KRE (Regional Banks): Hinging on support
- SMH (Semiconductors): 155 support - 160 target
- IYT (Transportation): 161.50 pivotal support, 170 resistance
- IBB (Biotechnology): 137.60 closest support
- XRT (Retail): 43.40 huge support, 45 resistance
- Volatility Index (VXX) 32.70 pivotal
- Junk Bonds (JNK) 104.50 resistance, 101.50 support
- LQD (iShs iBoxx High Yield Bonds) 134.90 support
Mish Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trading Research and Education
