Mish's Market Minute

Has the Market Jumped from Cautious to Bullish Sentiment?

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On Friday, the Economic Modern Family, which consists of 5 sectors and 1 major index, made a quick turnaround in the small-cap index (IWM) and the retail space (XRT). Both closed over their 50-day major moving averages and are now in unconfirmed bullish phases, as seen in the above chart.

This shows that the Family is attempting to jump back into a mostly bullish phase. However, the increased volatility could also be showing that the current market situation is choppy. With that said, we need to be careful not to get whipsawed when trading.

Getting whipsawed refers to price movement that rapidly shifts direction. To avoid this, we can use the Economic Family to time our trade entries. A large benefit of using the Family is its ability to give a quick snapshot of the overall market without over-complicating or adding too much data to the pot. The adage "less is more" fits this situation quite well.

With that said, IWM and XRT's recent flip into a bullish phase means we can watch them for potential breakouts to new highs. However, because IWM has been rangebound and has a large amount of resistance at $234, we should be careful when entering trades near this price level. This will help prevent getting whipsawed if prices begin to reverse.

When it comes to other Economic Family members, we can watch for bullish phases to stay intact and for KRE and IYT, which are currently in cautionary phases, to hold recent lows made from last Thursday on 7/8.


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ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): New highs.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): Watching for a second close over the 50-DMA at 225.49.
  • Dow (DIA): If holds 348 next resistance at 351.09.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): Holding near highs.
  • KRE (Regional Banks): Sitting under 64.94 the 10-DMA.
  • SMH (Semiconductors): 245 main support area. 262.50 resistance.
  • IYT (Transportation): 251.78 new support.
  • IBB (Biotechnology): 159 support area. 165.79 resistance.
  • XRT (Retail): 99.24 main resistance.


Forrest Crist-Ruiz

MarketGauge.com

Assistant Director of Trading Research and Education

Mish Schneider
About the author: serves as Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals, as well as to large financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial people to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision. Learn More
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