Mish's Market Minute

Does Lower Bitcoin Volume Matter as $BTC Attempts to Clear 51K?

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Bitcoin continues its rally up with a recent break over the 50K price level. However, many investors are watching for Bitcoin to clear 51K as the next hurdle. With that said, if we are expecting Bitcoin to run higher, we should keep in mind recent support levels, along with volume patterns seen from the beginning of this year.

For support levels, the 200-DMA is an important moving average at 46K. However, because Bitcoin has traded through the 200-DMA multiple times, the best current support level to hold is 44K from the low of 8/19. Although Bitcoin has been trending higher, the past month has seen multiple small pullbacks, each without any considerable volume spikes. Volume has also been lower compared to the initial push to the 50K price range dating back to February 2021.

A large part of volume decline could be from months of consolidation Bitcoin went through and, therefore, gave investors and institutions the chance to slowly load up on the currency. Having said that, if Bitcoin continues higher, it will enter a choppy zone from 50-60K. This could be tough to push through on current average volume and will likely require large spikes of buying to push past resistance ahead.

If buying does not accelerate, instead of volume entering from more buying, it could be in the form of selling from increased volatility. However, that does not mean Bitcoin would completely selloff. Instead, buying could enter from dips, as seen in the beginning of the year, after a quick correction.


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ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): Small-range Doji day.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 225 main resistance.
  • Dow (DIA): Support level 347. 356.60 high to clear.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 370 support area.
  • KRE (Regional Banks): Needs to hold over its 50-DMA at 64.40.
  • SMH (Semiconductors): 271.79 high to clear.
  • IYT (Transportation): 248.88 support. Needs to clear 255 and hold.
  • IBB (Biotechnology): 164.27 support.
  • XRT (Retail): Needs to hold 97.
  • Junk Bonds (JNK) Watching for confirmed phase change over the 50-DMA 109.46.


Forrest Crist-Ruiz

MarketGauge.com

Assistant Director of Trading Research and Education

Mish Schneider
About the author: serves as Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals, as well as to large financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial people to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision. Learn More
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