Mish's Market Minute

If the Market Holds, Watch Bitcoin and the Biotech Space

Mish Schneider

Mish Schneider

Director of Trading Education, MarketGauge.com

The past week was a chop fest in the major indices, with large intraday price swings. While the 3 major indices closed roughly flat on Friday, the Russell 2000 (IWM) made a late-day turnaround, ending up over 0.8% on the day. Although IWM closed under its pivotal $209 level, it looks to be attempting to hold the $206 area. With that said, on Monday, we should watch for IWM to again clear and hold over $209.

Moving on to Mish's Economic Modern Family, two of the seven members show strength as they held important areas in both price and momentum. In the above chart, you can see Bitcoin on the left and the biotech ETF (IBB) on the right. Underneath both charts are our Real Motion and Leadership indicators.

Currently, Bitcoin has been battling to hold its new support level at 45K. If it can hold, it will look to clear resistance from its 200-day moving average at 48k. When it comes to momentum, the dotted red line is holding near its upper band, showing both momentum and price agree. If BTC continues higher, we can watch for both momentum and price to clear the 200-DMA. It should also be noted that BTC is outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) based on the leadership indicator.

Pivoting away from the crypto space, of all the ETFs in Mish's Economic Modern Family, the biotech space (IBB) closed the strongest on Friday. Again, both momentum and price are moving together while the leadership indicator shows that IBB is outperforming SPY.

With that said, on Monday we should watch for a continuation of the biotech space and, when it comes to Bitcoin, keep an eye out for 45k to hold and 48k to clear.

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ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY) 447 support.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 209 pivotal.
  • Dow (DIA): 343 the 50-DMA.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 348 next main support. 369 to clear.
  • KRE (Regional Banks): Confirmed caution phase with second close under the 200-DMA at 69.
  • SMH (Semiconductors): Watch for second close under the 50-DMA at 266.
  • IYT (Transportation): Large selloff does not look good. Watching for a breakdown into the 250 area.
  • IBB (Biotechnology): 127 main support the 50-DMA.
  • XRT (Retail): Back into a bearish phase with second close under the 50-DMA at 77.

Forrest Crist-Ruiz


Assistant Director of Trading Research and Education

Mish Schneider
About the author: serves as Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals, as well as to large financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial people to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision. Learn More