Mish's Market Minute

Why We are Focusing on Commodities Over Equities

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On Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) outperformed the other indexes, ending the day +1.20%, while other major indices closed roughly flat on the day.

From the momentum side, our Real Motion (RM) indicator is flirting with the lower band. This can be seen circled in the above chart. If QQQ can clear the band, this could be a setup for a mean reversion type of trade.

While this does present an opportunity from an oversold basis, the next problem is overhead resistance in a down-trending market. We have already seen how easily the market can attempt a rally, only to flip and break lower the next day. With so much overhead resistance, taking long trades in equities is especially risky. Therefore, we plan to focus on commodities and put most equities on the back burner.

Two commodities we are currently watching are sugar (CANE) and gold (GLD). Each is sitting on support from the 200-day moving average. However, simply holding support is not a great reason to take a trade; they need to show they are capable of trending upwards or show a proper reversal chart pattern.

Again, we can look at the momentum indicator for signals. In CANE, RM is nearing the lower band. If the band is tested/broken, we could look for RM to re-enter the band for another mean reversion trade. On the other hand, GLD has not only broken the band, but also broken through the 200-MA on RM. If GLD can hold the 200-DMA in price, we can watch for RM to clear its 200-MA to confirm that price and RM agree.

While these can be great symbols to trade, timing our entries in a volatile market makes all the difference.


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ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): Resistance at 410.  Watching to hold current price area.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 182 resistance.
  • Dow (DIA): 322 pivotal.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 309-317 resistance.
  • KRE (Regional Banks): 63 to clear and hold.
  • SMH (Semiconductors): 237 to clear.
  • IYT (Transportation): 239 resistance.
  • IBB (Biotechnology): Inside day.
  • XRT (Retail): 70 resistance.


Forrest Crist-Ruiz

MarketGauge.com

Assistant Director of Trading Research and Education

Mish Schneider
About the author: serves as Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals, as well as to large financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial people to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision. Learn More
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