Mish's Market Minute

Retail and Regional Banks Will Call the Shots

Mish Schneider

Mish Schneider

Director of Trading Education, MarketGauge.com

The 23-month moving average or a two-year business cycle is particularly important this year after a big up then down year-looms large.

Looking at Granny Retail, that business cycle not only leaves investors with the trading range resistance, it also shows how the Retail sector could be a harbinger of worse times this spring.

On the weekly chart though, Granny is still in the game, holding both the 50 and 200-week moving averages. The Real Motion indicator flashes a divergence, however. Momentum weakens, while price is okay. And the Triple Play indicator has Granny underperforming the benchmark.

So, the ever-important representative of US growth is stressed, albeit not broken.

Regional Banks, our Prodigal Son, has a story as well. As per the weekend daily on the Economic Modern Fam, "Regional Banks (KRE) sits below the 50-week moving average and noteworthy, below the 50-day moving average. With folks not depositing money due to high credit card debt (and higher yielding options like T-bills), and with mortgage rates so high, it's no wonder our Prodigal Son struggles."

The higher rates on T-Bills, CDs, and other bank deposits have been attractive for consumers and businesses. However, that is costly for the US banking industry, already experiencing a slowdown in lending. With banks having to raise the rates for deposits, bank profits could fall. And as we know, the Regional Banks character is called Prodigal Son for this very reason. First, they (banks) hoard your capital and pay you very little interest, and then they come back asking for forgiveness.

In this case, should banks start to project larger unemployment and smaller profits, that could be the reason Fed either does a pivot or pause, or raises the inflation target from 2% up to 3%. But we are getting ahead of ourselves.

Granny Retail and Prodigal Regional Banks are my key go-tos for this week. Teetering on support, they could be just fine, and low-risk buy opportunities. But, if they fail support, take note!

If you missed it, check out the Weekend Outlook, with commentary charts and the important points taken from Big View on risk.

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Mish in the Media

Mish joins Maggie Lake on Real Vision to talk commodities and setups!

Read about Mish's article about the implications of elevated sugar prices in this article from Kitco!

While the indices remain range bound, Mish shows you several emerging trends on the Wednesday, March 1 edition of StockCharts TV's Your Daily Five!

Mish joins Business First AM for Stock Picking Time in this video!

See Mish sit down with Amber Kanwar of BNN Bloomberg to discuss the current market conditions and some picks.

Click here to watch Mish and StockCharts.com's David Keller join Jared Blikre as they discuss trading, advice to new investors, crypto, and AI on Yahoo Finance.

In her latest video for CMC Markets, MarketGauge's Mish Schneider shares insights on the gold, the S&P 500 and natural gas and what traders can expect as the markets remain mixed.

Coming Up:

March 6th: International Women's Day -- Mish on CNBC Asia with analysis and stock picks

March 7th: The Ladies are taking over Business First

March 8th: StockCharts TV's The Pitch-a panel with Mish and 5 stock picks; also Investment Strategy Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial

March 9th: Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial

March 13th: Mish on TD Ameritrade with Nicole Petallides

March 14th: F.A.C.E. Forex Analytix with Dale Pinkert

March 16th:The Final Bar with Dave Keller, StockCharts TV

And down on the road

March 20th: Madam Trader Podcast with Ashley Kyle Miller

March 22nd: The RoShowPod with Rosanna Prestia

March 24th: Opening Bell with BNN Bloomberg

March 30th:Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV

March 31st: Festival of Learning Real Vision "Portfolio Doctor"

April 24-26: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

ETF Summary

  • S&P 500 (SPY): 390 support with 405 pivotal; 410 resistance.
  • Russell 2000 (IWM): 190 failed so Grandpa hurts; 295 support.
  • Dow (DIA): 326 support, 335 resistance.
  • Nasdaq (QQQ): 300 the pivotal area, 290 major support; 284 big support, 300 pivotal, 305 resistance.
  • Regional Banks (KRE): 60 pivotal--closed below.
  • Semiconductors (SMH): 240 pivotal, 248 key resistance; 248 resistance, 237 then 229 support.
  • Transportation (IYT): 240 resistance and 230 support.
  • Biotechnology (IBB): 125-135 trading range.
  • Retail (XRT): 66 pivotal with 64 key support.

Mish Schneider


Director of Trading Research and Education

Mish Schneider
About the author: serves as Director of Trading Education at MarketGauge.com. For nearly 20 years, MarketGauge.com has provided financial information and education to thousands of individuals, as well as to large financial institutions and publications such as Barron’s, Fidelity, ILX Systems, Thomson Reuters and Bank of America. In 2017, MarketWatch, owned by Dow Jones, named Mish one of the top 50 financial people to follow on Twitter. In 2018, Mish was the winner of the Top Stock Pick of the year for RealVision. Learn More