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Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle September 19, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37. This week is the September option expiration which has a bullish bias 63% of the time. Yesterday, we said “the SPX was higher five days in a row going into last Friday; it was higher at least once within the next five days 18 of the last 18 times” (new higher high today, bingo). The bottom window is the “3 day average of the TRIN” and readings below .8 can lead to short term Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Friday as a Market Microcosm

by David Keller

I was in New York last week and as I landed back in Cleveland I checked the market action leading into Friday’s close. I realized that the chart of Friday’s price action was a microcosm of what we’re seeing in the markets and thus confirmed my lukewarm enthusiasm for the coming weeks. I first looked at a 5-minute chart of Friday’s price action. Here we see a selloff around 10:00am and a quick reversal back to the high of the opening range. Then around noon, a steep selloff to take the SPY down to a low for the day around $290. Then a slow and steady gain back to close Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: What Happened to the Eurodollar COT Model?

by Tom McClellan

One of my favorite predictive models had me looking for a decent selloff in the summer of 2018, but the U.S. stock market decided not to participate. So what happened? The model in this week’s chart contains data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) Report, published by the CFTC. This data is on the eurodollar futures contract, the most liquid and widely traded of all futures contracts. I should emphasize that in this context, the term “eurodollar” is not a currency futures contract, but rather it refers to dollar-denominated time deposits in European banks. So Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

W.H.C. Bassetti: What traders do...

by W.H.C. Bassetti

Editor's Note: This article was originally posted in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends on Wednesday, September 12th at 11:17pm ET. http://schrts.co/QNzSzd Traders sell strength and buy weakness. This includes for some the short of a gap -- even when that gap is a jump out of congestion on volume. We regard this as a species of Russian roulette. There is in fact a sometime prominent trader who advocates just that technique. This can be effective for scalping -- as we see in the present example. Breakaway gap then price erosion and you could have made a Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle September 12, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long SPX 9/7/18 at 2871.68=loss 1.03%: long 2901.52 on 8/31/18. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37. The bottom window is the Index Put/Call ratio (CPCI).  When this ratio hits the upper Bollinger band the market at least bounces.  There are three times the market bounced after CPCI hit the upper Bollinger band then retraced back down and those times are March, May and July. Market can bounce here but probably will not Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle September 5, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 8/31/18 at 2901.52. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18 Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37. We research a lot of different ratios, some provide good information and others, not so much.  The middle window above is the four period moving average of the Tick/Vix raito.  When this ratio is above +18 the market has been near a short term high and below -10 the market has been near a short term low.  Today’s close came at -12.21.  Also the Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Rick Bensignor: What's With the Zero Accountability, Chartists?

by Rick Bensignor

Those of us who have for years strategized about markets and securities without doing standard fundamental analysis on them have often faced criticism and rebuke from analysts, portfolio managers, and research directors.  They see market timing, technical analysis, and the like, as useless horse crap. (Unfortunately, these same naysayers have virtually no understanding of the how, where, why, when, if, and what processes we undertake to come to our conclusions; they simply choose to knock what they have very little understanding of, and certainly prove that have little to no knowledge Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Alexander Elder: The Optimum Number of Trades

by Alexander Elder

A trader from Brazil asks: “I wonder whether I'm over-trading – throwing away my advantage as a private trader (as you teach.) As a Swing Trader, approximately how many trades a month do you consider to be the optimum number?” Alex replies: two types of overtrading damage our performance. One is trading too big a size and the other is putting on too many trades. I addressed the first in several recent Password classes. Your question deals with the second type of overtrading. While choosing a proper risk size is a matter of applying a simple formula, deciding how many trades to make rests Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Deja Voodoo, 1994 Edition

by Tom McClellan

In the election of 1992 there was an insurgent candidate, who did not win a majority of the popular vote, but who took the White House and set about reorganizing the government in a manner more to his liking.  The first two years of his term in office were marked by numerous scandals, and by a stock market which saw a scary dip in the 2nd year which eventually resolved itself into a strong uptrend during the 3rd year of his presidential term.  At that time, the Federal Reserve was commencing a program of rate hikes, which had market participants worried. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Highlighting Health Care Highs

by David Keller

While many investors have been focused on the “narrow” leadership of the FAANG names, the Health Care sector has quietly become a top performer for 2018.  While the extreme overbought condition suggests a short-term pullback, it also suggests that much further highs are in store. After pulling back to the $79 level in February, the XLV tested that support area two more times through the spring months.  In early June, the Health Care ETF broke to new swing highs before testing moving average support into the 4th of July holiday.   Since that pullback Read More 

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