Market jitters predominate - approaching the Quarter's end (amidst Russell re-balancing); as economic data continues to defy complacency or any upside exuberance, with that little-known but traditional influence on equity prices: facts and slowing outlooks. Technical conditions short-term are indecision patterns as even the McClellan Oscillator sits right on the zero-line.
Let me share one interesting historical technical prospect. For a couple decades now, the middle and late July time-frame has had about a 60-70% probability of a reversal. Typically that would imply a trend (or at least a move) counter to the market's preceding behavior. If a market is down; that often means odds favor an upside move. If the market 'was' up; the odds often favor a downside move. In this case the market has been basically (albeit not exclusively) higher; which leaves the burden of proof on the Bulls, as the historical 'odds' would favor the downside outcome of the next swing later in July. There are many other reasons or internal indicators that may argue (or when combined with 'facts' affirm that), but I just thought I share the historical 'creature of habit' technical prospects. Of course markets overall are up about 70% of the time; so inherently this points to a greater-than-average probability of the next meaningful move being downside
That's the heart of a two-pronged fundamental assessment we've made looking to July: (the 'two prongs' and how they should evolve are outlined to members).
Enjoy the weekend!
Gene
Gene Inger
www.ingerletter.com
