SPX Monitoring purposes; Long SPX on 10/22/18 at 2755.88.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: sold 11/27/18 at 18.88=gain .075%; Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78
The bottom window is the five day average of the TRIN. Short-term highs have been found when the 5-Day TRIN reaches .80 or lower (identified with red vertical lines). The current reading is 1.09 and in neutral territory. The top window is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. According to the McClellan rules when the McClellan Oscillator travels from -300 to +200 within two weeks (current setup was -319 to +287 and still rising), this suggests an initiation of an up-move. There can be pullbacks when these readings are met, but this suggests an uptrend is starting. What is interesting here is that the Advance/Decline was over 3/1 to the upside, which in turn will push the McClellan Oscillator even higher today. The market could move higher in the short term.
The FOMC meeting announcement is tomorrow and we were looking for signs of short-term exhaustion today… we really didn’t find any. The second window up from the bottom is the 50-hour moving average of the TICK. The 50-hour TICK, in general, falls and rises with the SPY. Today, the TICK closed at +638, another strong TICK close. The last seven days saw the TICK close each day above +390 and suggests strong short term momentum. It's common near short term highs on the SPY that the SPY will continue higher and the TICKs will start making lower highs, suggesting upside momentum is waning; so far that has not happened. The market can still push higher, short-term.
Divergences are present and not a lot has changed from yesterday. The bottom window is the XAU/GLD ratio, which has made lower highs as XAU made higher highs. For a bullish sign, XAU/GLD should be outperforming the XAU; that is not happening here. The Inflation/Deflation ratio normally marches in step to XAU - when there is a divergence between the two, the ratio usually has the correct move. The daily XAU exceeded its October high and the Inflation/Deflation ratio fell short to its October high, showing the ratio is much weaker than XAU, which is a bearish sign for XAU. The short-term picture for the Inflation/Deflation ratio is also showing weakness compared to XAU, as XAU makes short-term higher highs and Inflation/Deflation makes lower highs. A possible pullback may materialize short term for the XAU (GDX). Ideal time for a gold and gold stock bottom is around January 22, but this could change as time gets closer. Not sure if the pull back will test the September low, but it could. This potential pullback could lead to a longer bullish setup. We will show why on tomorrow's report; it has to do with the weekly Inflation/Deflation ratio. We will wait for the next bullish setup.