Top Advisors Corner

The Ord Oracle April 7, 2020


SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold SPX on 3/26/20 at 2630.07= gain 17.55%; Long SPX on 3/23/20 at 2237.40

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Flat

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Flat

Today the SPY gapped up over 3%, then fell back, closing near-unchanged from yesterday. The top window is the VIX, which rose today despite the market being flat, which is a bearish sign. Monday's gap open may still be tested in the coming days and an area where a bullish setup could form. A setup would consist of a test of the gap day on lighter volume, along with a TRIN reading >1.30 and a TICK close < -200. Friday is Good Friday and markets are closed. Volume usually drops going into a holiday; tomorrow and Thursday may see light volume and an ideal time for Monday's gap to be tested. With a show of strength yesterday in the Up/Down volume and McClellan Oscillator remaining above "0", the uptrend for now is intact but a short term pull back is possible. Sold SPX 3/26/20 for gain of 17.55%.

Yesterday we said, "From the mid-March low to late March high, the McClellan Oscillator went from minus -400 to +200, which is a +600 Oscillator move. This surge in the Oscillator is a show of strength, one that usually leads to more strength short-term." Yesterday the Up Volume to Down Volume reached 10 to 1 (bottom window) and is another show of strength, but not usually how a rally ends. Yesterday, we concluded that a pull back to fill yesterday's gap open was a possibility, that possibility still exists. This coming weekend is a three-day holiday and todays marks a full moon; both conditions can take the wind out of the sails short term. Market may become quiet tomorrow and Thursday (Friday is a holiday). Signal could develop near gap level at 255 SPY range. Sold SPX position March 26 for a 17.55% gain.

The Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index stands at 80.77%; readings above 40% (40% of the stocks in the Gold Miners index that are on point and figure buy signals) are bullish for the index longer-term (chart not shown). If the Bullish Percent index holds above the 40% level in the coming weeks, it will suggests a GDX eventual breakout above the 31.00 level. Therefore, the longer-term looks bright. However, the short-term is not so bright. The second window up from the bottom is the GDX/GLD ratio. When this ratio is outperforming GDX, a bullish condition is represented for both gold and gold stocks.  For nearly a month, GDX has made minor higher highs while GDX/GLD ratio has made lower highs and a short term bearish divergence, suggesting GDX may pull back short-term. GDX is also at resistance near the 26.00 level while this divergence is present, suggesting the 26.00 resistance level may hold. Being patient for now.

Tim Ord,

Editor New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at

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