SPX Monitoring Purposes: Sold 6/1/21 SPX at 4202.04 gain 2.1%;Long 5/19/21 at 4115.68.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Long-Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Sold long SPX on 1/15/21 at 3768.25= gain 10.80%; Long SPX on 10/26/20 at 3400.97.
This pattern appears incomplete, but could play out in the coming days. The pattern that appears to be forming on the QQQ is "Three Drives to Top." This pattern can be identified when the second high retraces 61.8% of the previous rally and does so on increased volume (check). The next rally breaks to a new high for the third top (check). It this pattern plays out, it would have a downside target to where the pattern began, which in this case would be near 300 on the QQQ. This week is option expiration week, which normally has a bullish bias, and therefore QQQ could hold the highs or modestly move higher this week. Next week is one of the worst-performing weeks of the year, seasonality-wise. July has the probability of being higher only 45% of the time. The 3- and 5-day TRIN are near the bullish levels and another reason market may hold this week. Being patient for now. Sold 6/1/21 SPX at 4202.04 gain 2.1%. Long 5/19/21 at 4115.68.
We updated this chart from yesterday, which is the 3- and 5-day TRIN. The bottom window is the 5-day TRIN and readings near 1.25 and higher are bullish; the current reading is 1.31. The third window up from the bottom is the 3-day TRIN and reading near 1.30 area is bullish; current reading is 1.30. These high TRIN readings suggest the market has support. On page one, we mention the possibility that the QQQ may be drawing a "Three Drives To Top." If that turns out to be the case for the QQQ, it would give a target on the SPY to at least the May low, which is 404. These market moves have the seasonality in their corner for it to happen.
We updated this chart from yesterday. Yesterday we said (and it still applies), "The top window is the Inflation/Deflation ratio. This ratio has been making higher highs as GDX has been making lower highs, which is a bullish divergence short-term. This condition suggests the GDX consolidation may be ending and another impulse wave is about to begin. Seasonality is bullish for Gold this week and bearish for the dollar and may help the potential rally in GDX. The Bullish percent index for the Gold Miners index has been gaining ground since the March low and stands at 73.33%, which is a strong showing. The bigger trend is up and the short-term trend may be turning up."