SPX Monitoring Purposes: Sold 8/24/21 at 4486.23=gain 1.83%; Long SPX on 8/19/21 at 4405.80.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral
We've updated this chart from yesterday, when the SPY closed above its upper Bollinger band. It's common for the market to start showing weakness short-term, and it appears that is what happening. Today's weak volume adds to the weakness scenario. The 5-day TRIN (second window up from bottom) did close below .90 late last week and early this week, which can stall the market short term. Tomorrow is September 1 and, seasonality-wise, promises an up day tomorrow near 80% of the time. If there is an up day, we don't believe it to be the start of a new uptrend. We do have bearish signs, but the picture is unclear short term.
Above is a continuation of the short-term view. Back on August 11 and 12, the TICK closed at +325 and +437 respectively (noted in blue). Closing TICKs above +300 after an extended rally is a bearish sign. Today, the TICK closed at +477 and a bearish sign. Tomorrow is 9/1, whcih seasonality-wise is up near 80% of the time. Don't know if it will happen, but if SPY and VIX are both up tomorrow, that will add to the bearish scenario. Wednesday and Thursday are usually not great trade entry days, but Friday, Monday and Tuesday usually are. Bearish signs are developing.
Last Thursday, we showed the weekly Bullish Percent Index for the Gold Miners index/GDX ratio, which was flashing an intermediate-term bullish signal. Yesterday, we showed the daily Inflation/Deflation ratio, which was also flashing an intermediate-term bullish signal. The second window up from the bottom in chart above is the 50-day average of the Up Down Volume Percent for GDX, and the next window up is the 50-day average for the Advance/Decline percent for GDX. When both indicators fall below -20 and then close above -20, an intermediate-term bullish signal is triggered. Three different intermediate-term indicators are lining up on the bullish side of the ledger.
Tim Ord,
Editor
www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.
