SPX Monitoring Purposes: Sold 5/24/22 at 3941.65= gain 1.033%; Long SPX on 5/20/22 at 3901.36.
Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.
We updated this chart form yesterday, when we said, "bullish intermediate-term setups occur for the market when the NYSE McClellan Summation index falls below -700 (current reading -846), then rallies to +1000 in around two months. Back in March, the Summation index fell below -700, but didn't get above +0 on the next rally. Again, the Summation index is below -700, and our first target is near 4100, which is the previous high of last week. If indeed that resistance does hold, its very unlikely the Summation index will reach +1000. If the index fails to get to +1000, then another decline will be expected, which may hit new lows." Summation did turn up yesterday, but has not shown any strength so far, which is bearish.
The market is supposed to see strength off a low to confirm a reversal. Yesterday's rally off Friday's low traded above Friday's high, but closed below it, and volume came in near half of Friday's volume, which is a bearish sign. We were hoping today we would see a "Sign of Strength: to confirm the reversal; instead, the market gapped down and traded below Monday's low on higher volume, suggesting SPY may attempt to test Friday's low. Both VVIX and VIX were up today, suggesting a short term pullback is possible. Our scenario is that SPY (SPX) may test Friday's low and, if volume is lighter on the test and Panic is present on the TRIN and TICK, a bullish setup is possible. Sold long SPX today for a gain of 1.033%.
Above is the monthly chart for GLD (ETF for gold). The monthly RSI remains above 50, suggesting the longer-term trend is up for GLD. The pattern forming appears to be a head-and-shoulders bottom, and the right shoulder is forming now. The bottom window is the Bollinger Bandwidth, which is at a very low level, nearly matching the time back in mid-2018 when GLD started a strong rally that lasted almost two years. So far, GLD has only retraced 38.2% of its rally that began back in 2016, which suggests this sideways consolidation is at the halfway point of the move up. That gives us a target near 250. With the monthly Bollinger bands pinching, a large move is nearing.
Tim Ord,
Editor
www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.
Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable, there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above.
