Top Advisors Corner

The Ord Oracle September 20, 2022

Tim Ord

Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Neutral.

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.

Above is the American Association of Individual Investors Bull/Bear ratio. Readings below .40 have market intermediate-term lows in the SPX. Both the June and early September lows had readings below .40 and, both times, the market bounced. Most likely, another reading will be needed below .40 to complete the bottom process, and that may show up later this month or in October. A reading below .40 on this ratio shows panic by investors, and panic only forms near lows. Current reading is .57.

The top window is the SPX McClellan Oscillator. Capitulation (panic) occurs in this indicator with readings below -100.  The early September low did have a reading below -100, and the market did have a rally. Since then, SPX has declined below that September low, but SPX McClellan Oscillator failed to reach back below -100. For an ideal setup for a bottom, one would like to see the SPX McClellan Oscillator below -100, along with a TRIN close above 1.30 and a downtick close below -300. Today, the TRIN closed at 1.92 which is bullish and the TICK closed at -161, which leans bullish, and the SPX McClellan Oscillator closed yesterday at -17 (unlikely to reach below -100 today). Could see short-term bounce but likely not a lasting rally. Yesterday, we said "the market appears to be building a base from 365 to 380 SPY ranges for a year-end rally."

Tim Ord,

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