DecisionPoint

July 2017

DecisionPoint

Scoreboard Indexes and "Big Four" Monthly Chart Analysis

by Erin Swenlin

It's the last day of the month so all of our monthly charts have "gone final". First, here are the DecisionPoint Scoreboards currently (you can add these to your member dashboard!). You'll note two new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signals arrived on the SPX and OEX. These signals are triggered when the 5-EMA crosses above the 20-EMA. You'll find those daily charts in the DecisionPoint Chart Gallery and for annotated charts, go to the DecisionPoint Shared ChartList (link at top of DecisionPoint Blog page). Momentum signals are bearish, but in all four indexes, the daily PMO is now Read More 

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DP Alert: New STTM BUY Signals for Dow and NDX - IT Trend Model SELL Signal on USO

by Erin Swenlin

As you can see on the DecisionPoint Scoreboard summary, we had two new Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signals on the Dow and NDX. I've annotated the charts below the Scoreboards. Of particular note on those charts are the breakouts above the declining tops trendlines. The PMO on the NDX has now bottomed, but the Dow's PMO is still in a slow decline. The other big new signal was an Intermediate-Term Trend Model (ITTM) SELL signal on USO. Oil has been volatile but has been in a steady downtrend for quite some time. I'll go over that signal change in the section on Oil below Read More 

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Is that PMO Overbought or Oversold?

by Erin Swenlin

First, thank you to all of the live MarketWatchers LIVE webinar viewers! You've been making writing my blog articles easy by posing excellent questions in the chat room during the live show. Today's question was how I determine if a Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) is overbought or oversold. There can be some confusion because I do point out "near-term" overbought and oversold conditions which can be confused with the overall PMO range in the longer term which will have different thresholds. Properly confused? Great! Let me explain. This blog is really an expansion of Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Smaller-Cap Stocks Lagging

by Carl Swenlin

While we usually focus on the large-cap market indexes, they often disguise what is happening with smaller-cap stocks. Recently I decided to delve into this question with a chart showing the relative strength of smaller-cap indexes. The first relative strength panel examines all S&P 500 stocks on an equal-weighted basis. (The S&P 500 is a cap-weighted index, and its fifty largest stocks comprise about 70% of the index weighting.) To get the relative strength line, we divided the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) by the benchmark index, SPY. Granted, RSP isn't a Read More 

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DP Alert: Dollar, Gold and Bonds All at a Decision Point

by Erin Swenlin

No changes to report on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards and based on the charts in the DecisionPoint ChartList (link at top of the DecisionPoint blog page), I only see the Intermediate-Term Trend Model signals nearing Neutral signals on the daily chart. 20-EMAs are steadily dropping toward negative crossovers the 50-EMAs. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors, the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Read More 

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Determining the Health of the Market in the Intermediate and Long Terms

by Erin Swenlin

Today was my first day back on the MarketWatchers LIVE show (you'll find the recording under the "Webinars" tab) and it was so much fun to reconnect with all the fans in the chat room and on Twitter. During our "Mailbag" segment, I was asked what I used to determine the overall health of the market in the intermediate and long terms. The answer was actually quite simple: I use the weekly and monthly PMOs. The signals tend to be very timely and very accurate. The weekly PMOs can see some whipsaw, but the divergences are generally very clear Read More 

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DP Alert: SPY Bounces Off Rising Bottoms Support - IT Indicators Reaching Near-Term Oversold Territory

by Erin Swenlin

After a wonderful wedding and honeymoon, I have finally returned! It took some time to review and update my annotations and I see that we've had quite a few signal changes while I was gone. The market has been meandering lower this month since I left and consequently the DP indicators have seen some bearish changes. Let's get started with a fresh review. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR Sectors Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Failed Retest

by Carl Swenlin

Last week I wrote: "I would like for the correction to continue for a while, but honestly, we may have just hit bottom." Well, the market did make a bottom, but it was just for a short bounce prior to this week's failed retest of last week's low. It was not the enduring intermediate-term bottom I had imagined, and it may be a while before we see that. As I watched decelerating price movement on Tuesday and Wednesday, it became apparent that a retest was more likely than an upside breakout. Similar to last week, this Friday was a day of rest to digest Thursday's collapse and to process Read More 

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DP Bulletin: Dow Industrials ($INDU) Generates ST Trend Model NEUTRAL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) 5EMA crossed down through the 20EMA, changing a Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) BUY signal to NEUTRAL. Recently we have been plagued by deluge of whipsaw signals on the other three major indexes we track here, but the Dow has been quite unambiguous, holding an STTM BUY signal for almost three months. There are no guarantees, but this 5/20EMA crossover is steep and clean, just the kind of configuration I like to see. Happy Charting! - Carl Technical Analysis Read More 

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DP Bulletin: S&P 100 and Nasdaq 100 ST Trend Models Switch Back to NEUTRAL

by Carl Swenlin

Today both the S&P 100 ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) Indexes switched from Short-Term Trend Model BUY signals to NEUTRAL, when their 5EMAs crossed back down through their 20EMAs. With only two days since the last signal changes, this is more annoying whipsaw, but I think these signals will hold for a while. I'll be making a full assessment in tomorrow's DP Weekly Wrap. Today's decline was a retest of last week's low, a retest that obviously failed. Of the four major averages we track here, the Nasdaq 100 was the only one that did not break through last Read More 

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Erin's Hits: Another PMO Scan for MarketWatchers

by Erin Swenlin

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** During the MarketWatchers LIVE program (airs 12:00p - 1:30p EST M/W/F), Tom Bowley and I have started a segment called "Anatomy of a Trade" where we go through our process for identifying investment prospects. I use Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) scans to start every mining exercise. One of the scans I have been using regularly identifies stocks that have PMOs rising for three days and have a bullish IT and LT Trend Model set-up (meaning the 20-EMA > 50-EMA Read More 

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Erin's Hits: Bear Market PMO Scan Screens a Few "Dogs"

by Erin Swenlin

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** With the market overbought and ready for at least a pullback, I decided to run one of my bear market Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) scans to see if I could find a few "dogs" out there. The scan produced a handful for review but the two below stood out to me. They are in the Healthcare/Pharm industries which is the last sector on the DecisionPoint Market/Sector Summary with Neutral signals. Here is the scan that I performed: Read More 

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DP Bulletin: Three New Short-Term Signals

by Carl Swenlin

On Friday the S&P 100 ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) had Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) signal changes from BUY to NEUTRAL. Today they switched back to BUY. The dreaded whipsaw again. Also, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) had a short-term PMO signal change from BUY to SELL. The two charts below show the whipsaw STTM signal changes for $OEX and $NDX -- the 5EMAs crossed back up through the 20EMAs, generating BUY signals. The chart of $INDU shows the daily PMO just barely closing below its signal line Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: NoKo Stumble (Supposedly)

by Carl Swenlin

In October 1962 I was a 21-year-old B-47 aircraft mechanic in the Strategic Air Command. One morning that month I reported for duty only to find the aircraft ramp covered with bombers loaded with nuclear weapons. Welcome to the Cuban Missile Crisis. It was pretty tense for a few weeks, and we got to DEFCON 2, just one click below the highest level of readiness, DEFCON 1. In hindsight I don't think most people really believed that the 'balloon had actually gone up', and as evidence of that we can see that the stock market took it all pretty well. There was a decline in October 1962, but it Read More 

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DP Bulletin: Three New Signals Generated

by Carl Swenlin

Today there were three signal changes: The S&P 100 Index ($OEX) and Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) had Short-Term Trend Model (STTM) signals change from BUY to NEUTRAL. And the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) intermediate-term PMO BUY signal changed to SELL. The two daily charts of $OEX and $NDX below show the 5EMA crossing down through the 20EMA, generating STTM NEUTRAL signals. The $NDX weekly chart below shows the weekly PMO crossing down through its signal line and generating a weekly PMO SELL signal. Read More 

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DP Bulletin: S&P 100 ($OEX) Generates ST PMO SELL Signal; S&P 500 Generates ST Trend Model NEUTRAL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

Today the S&P 100 Index ($OEX) daily PMO crossed down through its signal line and generated a short-term PMO SELL signal. Of the four major indexes on our score board, three have switched to short-term PMO SELL signals. Additionally, the S&P 500 Index 5EMA crossed down through the 20EMA, generating a Short-Term Trend Model NEUTRAL signal. Yesterday the same signal was generated on the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX), and I complained that the crossover was not 'robust.' I have no similar complaint about today's $OEX PMO crossover. On Monday the PMO topped and today's crossover was Read More 

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Erin's Hits: What's the Difference Between an Ascending Wedge and an Ascending Triangle?

by Erin Swenlin

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated **   I recently received a question from one of the attendees of yesterday's webinar (recording available here). I was reviewing the charts in our DP Chart Gallery as well as symbol requests and often referred to ascending triangle patterns and ascending wedge patterns. Here is the question: To read more. click here.     Read More 

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DP Bulletin: Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) Generates ST PMO SELL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

Today on the daily chart the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) PMO dropped below its signal line and generated a short-term PMO SELL signal. This is not what I would call a robust crossover. It is more the inevitable result of price running flat to slightly down, which causes the PMO and signal lines to drift sideways, gradually closing the gap and crossing. Examples of 'robust' crossovers would like the ones in June and July. In neither case do we have to squint to guess the direction or relative position of the PMO. Today we heard endless commentary about the confrontation with Read More 

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DP Bulletin: S&P 500 ($SPX) Generates ST PMO SELL Signal

by Carl Swenlin

Today on the daily chart the $SPX PMO dropped below its signal line and generated a short-term PMO SELL signal. More notable, price opened and traded higher, but then it reversed and closed lower -- a key reversal day. The line chart shows the modestly overbought PMO topping, then falling through its 10EMA. The key reversal is obvious on the daily bar chart below. Note that volume for both SPY and $SPX was well below the one-year average, so today was not a blowoff day. That is not necessarily a positive thing, considering (in my opinion) the distribution that Read More 

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Erin's Hits: 5-EMA/PMO Scan Produces Interesting Short-Term Opportunities

by Erin Swenlin

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated **   With the market bottoming and taking a positive turn, I decided it might be a good time to review the results of one of my favorite and nicely discriminating short-term scans. It looks for stocks that are in a positive configuration of the 50/200-EMAs; meaning 50-EMA > 200-EMA which we consider the stock is in a "bull market".    To read more Read More 

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DP Weekly Wrap: Top Still Not Resolved

by Carl Swenlin

Last week it looked as if the market was beginning to form a top, but that result still hasn't been realized. SPY continued to churn sideways, and the daily PMO came within a hair of crossing down through its signal line. There is still evidence that there is a top in the making, and we'll be looking at that below. The DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap presents an end-of-week assessment of the trend and condition of the stock market (S&P 500), the U.S. Dollar, Gold, Crude Oil, and Bonds. STOCKS IT Trend Model: BUY as Read More 

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DP Bulletin: Dow Industrials ($INDU) Generate Weekly PMO BUY Signal

by Carl Swenlin

Today the weekly PMO for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) crossed up through its signal line and generated a weekly PMO BUY signal. We can see on the weekly chart that the PMO has been running flat well above the zero line since April, which indicates that price has been moving up at a steady pace. Check the DP Weekly Wrap for a recap of the week's market action. Happy Charting! - Carl Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. **Don't miss DecisionPoint Read More 

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Erin's Hits: PMO + CandleGlance = Smart Money

by Erin Swenlin

** While Erin is away, we will be posting some of her "greatest hits" educational blogs. Some information may be dated ** The definition of "Smart Money": Money bet or invested by people with expert knowledge. I won't claim expert knowledge, but the pursuit of getting as close to that as possible is what we are doing here on StockCharts.com. In many of my previous DecisionPoint blog entries I've shown you how to use scans, DP Tracker Reports (members only), Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO), among others to help you find opportunities in a smart way. I'm going to tell you how to visually Read More 

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DP Alert: New BUY Signal for Crude (USO)

by Carl Swenlin

Today a new IT Trend Model (ITTM) BUY signal was generated by U.S. Oil Fund (USO), our surrogate for crude oil, when the 20EMA crossed up through the 50EMA. This looks like a case where the signal is a bit late in arriving due to the severe selling that took place before price finally bottomed -- the EMAs were so far apart to the downside that it took a substantial rally to pull them back together. The first bullish sign appeared over a month ago when the daily PMO bottomed. When price movements are as volatile as we can see on the chart, PMO direction Read More