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Bank Momentum Looks A Little Tepid

by Greg Schnell

The big banks have been wandering sideways lately. JP Morgan (JPM) spent the month trying to push to new highs. Today's price action looks a little tepid to close out the month. To review the indicators, there is a downtrend in relative strength in the shaded area. Price is stuck below the highs of the first quarter. While the volume looks weak, the bigger concern is the amount of red bars vs. green bars in the last three weeks. With only 1/3 of the bars closing positive on the day it warrants a closer look. In the zoom panel you can see the price has been jerked up on three big bars Read More 

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Semis Send a Message to the Market

by Arthur Hill

Chips are leading the market again as the broad-based Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) broke out of a triangle consolidation and hit a new high. A new high in this cyclical group is positive for the technology sector, the Nasdaq and the broader market. First note that XSD has 34 components and they are relatively equally weighted. AMD, which as a market cap of $24 billion, is the largest holding (5.23%) and Intel (2.77%), market cap $224 billion, is not even in the top ten. The Semiconductor iShares (SOXX), in contrast, is weighted towards large-caps with the top ten stocks accounting for 59% of Read More 

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EEM Emerging Markets ETF Kicks Off

by Greg Schnell

The emerging markets have been falling as the US Dollar was rising. With the sudden reversal on the $USD there are some charts shaping up nicely. The EEM chart has nice positive divergence on the Full Stochastic. If the $USD continues to weaken, this trade should continue to improve. For now, its a nice breakout with a signal. A stop that gets hit below last weeks low of $42 would suggest the trade is not going to work. There have been a wide variety of new videos over the last week. Here are links to them. The Canadian Read More 

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Treasury Bond ETF Hits Major Road Block

by Arthur Hill

The unadjusted 20+ YR T-Bond ETF (_TLT) surged to resistance on Friday and backed off on Monday. The long-term trend is down and this resistance level could mark a near term top. First note that the chart shows unadjusted prices for TLT by preceding the symbol with an underscore (_TLT). This removes the monthly distributions from the price. Second, note that the long-term trend is down because the 50-day EMA is below the 200-day EMA and price hit a 52-week low in May. On the price chart, TLT hit resistance in the 122-123 area in late March, late May and early July Read More 

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ING Bank Looks Ready To Pop Here

by Greg Schnell

ING Bank has seen some large volume surges in the last two months suggesting the potential for some capitulation low. On the MACD we can see a positive divergence in momentum. The relative strength is obviously very weak as is the SCTR ranking.  The weekly chart also has some nice information. We can see the two volume pillars are the largest in 5 years! Recently the full stochastic tried to move above 20 and pulled back but so far has a higher low. This positive divergence is worth keeping an eye on especially in light of the volume spike. The PPO and the Relative Strength both Read More 

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Hibbett Sports (HIBB) Breaks Through To New Highs

by Greg Schnell

This little sporting company, Hibbett Sports (HIBB) sports an average of 600,000 shares a day. It has struggled in a wide range between $22 - $29 for a good six months. Today it forged a new intraday high and a new closing high. This run up has been sharp. I might expect it to pause after breaking out and pull back. The pullback would be a better time to catch it with a tight stop. Good trading, Greg Schnell, CMT, MFTA Read More 

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Semiconductor ETF Forges a 4 Candlestick Reversal

by Arthur Hill

The Semiconductor iShares (SOXX) has been locked in a trading range the last few months, but the big trend is still up and a recent candlestick reversal could signal the start of an extended advance. It is important to keep perspective, even when looking at a short-term pattern. In the case of SOXX, keep in mind that the ETF was up around 172% from September 2016 to March 2018 and hit a 52-week high in March. This is a massive move and the ETF is entitled to a rest after such an advance. I think the long-term trend is still up because the 50-day EMA is above the Read More 

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TEVA Breaks Out

by Greg Schnell

Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) pushed to new highs and looks good to correlate with Arthur Hills article yesterday of Healthcare leading. Lots of nice things on this chart but the breakout is the best signal. I wouldn't let it breach the 10-week moving average on the downside. The PPO is making a turn up while above zero which is particularly bullish. It's a good week to pay attention to the broader industries as the $SPX tests the prior high. Be a little more cautious if the breakout fails to hold over the next few days. Good trading Read More 

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Healthcare Sector Takes the Lead

by Arthur Hill

The Health Care SPDR (XLV) moved into the sector lead with a 52-week high this week. As far as the charts are concern, the Real Estate SPDR (XLRE) and XLV are the only two sector SPDRs hitting fresh highs. XLV gets the edge because it is up around 11% year-to-date, while XLRE is up around 5%. The chart below shows three different versions of the healthcare sector. The EW Healthcare ETF (RYH) is in the top window, the SmallCap HealthCare ETF (PSCH) is in the middle window and the large-cap dominated SPDR (XLV) is in the middle window. The small-cap and large-cap sector ETFs hit new highs Read More 

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Wait For A Few Signals On Metals

by Greg Schnell

I am in Ketchican, Alaska this morning. The sunrise is a glow as the sky is low, light rain is falling and a morning fog has enveloped the town. This town is charming and is known for it's salmon fishing which brings an abundance of revenue when the salmon are here.  There are a lot of similarities to the commodities markets right now. The charts are all gloomy and pointing down, and commodity traders want to buy the lows knowing there will be another run someday in the markets. As a technical trader, the right thing for me to do is to wait for some signals to start Read More 

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Throwback Thursday for Cerner

by Arthur Hill

Cerner (CERN) remains in a long-term downtrend, but the stock broke a resistance level and pulled back to this breakout zone, which now turns into support. This is called a throwback and it could offer a second chance to partake in the breakout. First and foremost, CERN is in the early stages of a long-term trend reversal, at best. The long-term trend is still down because the 50-day EMA remains below the 200-day EMA (PPO is negative). However, the stock did exceed the May-July highs and the 200-day SMA. The breakout zone and the 200-day SMA could offer support on Read More 

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BP Looks Weak Here

by Greg Schnell

BP has been moving nicely to the upside for the last few years. This week the stock has touched an important level of support. The real question is what happens now? First of all, all our indicators are pointed sown so we don't need to rush in to buy this dip. Everything seems to be getting weaker. What I am more concerned with is the PPO (momentum) has broken a long uptrend on this weekly chart. That would encourage me to give the stock time to make a better base rather than trying to buy it at this level.  The full stochastics is already oversold which is usually a nice place to Read More 

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Anadarko Gets a Mean-Reversion Bounce

by Arthur Hill

Anadarko Petroleum (APC) has had quite a good year with a 25% gain in 2018 and 52-week highs in June and July. The stock fell over the last five weeks, but this decline is viewed as a correction within a bigger uptrend. Moreover, RSI became oversold and a mean-reversion bounce is now in play. First and foremost, the long-term trend is up because the stock hit a new high in July, the 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA and price is above the rising 200-day EMA. APC fell back to the 65 area in early August and the May lows offer support in this Read More 

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Bank Of America (BAC) Approaches Former Highs

by Greg Schnell

Bank of America (BAC) is approaching the highs hit back in March. This is technically an important setup for the stock. In the big picture, the March 2018 high had a lot less momentum than the March 2017 high as shown by the PPO indicator.  As the stock rallies up to the old highs, the PPO momentum is bouncing off the zero level. This can mean the stock is making a reset in momentum and starting its next run. However, a failure to make a higher high in momentum would suggest caution for the bulls. The green trend line on the PPO is an important place to watch the price action of Read More 

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Is The Mouse House Going Vertical? (DIS)

by Greg Schnell

With all the attention late last year on Disney with the ESPN subscription levels, the cast at Disney announced they were launching their own 'over the top' service. In July, Disney secured the buying of 21st Century Fox for $71 Billion. Needless to say, that investment is more than just a casual 'filling in some gaps' for Disney. At the completion of the deal, it is estimated Disney will own 40% of the box office. That's a wow. So with the Mouse House coming directly to your house, what do investors think? Well, they like this a lot. Disney could break out to all time highs after Read More 

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Gilead Gets another Bollinger Band Squeeze

by Arthur Hill

Gilead is in the midst of its fourth Bollinger Band squeeze in the past year. The last four instances foreshadowed pretty strong moves so I will be watching the current squeeze closely for the next directional clue. A Bollinger Band squeeze occurs when the bands contract and the Bandwidth indicator moves to the low end of its range. The chart shows Bollinger Bands shaded in pink and BandWidth in the indicator window. BandWidth measures the difference between the bands as a percentage of the closing price. Volatility contracts when the Bollinger Bands narrow and this Read More 

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J B Hunt Starts Accelerating (JBHT)

by Greg Schnell

JB Hunt is one of America's largest fleets. Amassing a fleet of over 12,000 trucks and 100,000 trailers, it's clear that JBHT has a pulse across North America's industries. With 124,000 employees, this industry is people intensive and flourishes when the economy is accelerating.  I am writing this article while heading north to the Montney oilfield in Northwest Alberta. I'm feeling the highway vibe their operators enjoy as the sky constantly changes while checking out the August 2, 2018 sunset. Thursday saw the chart of JB Hunt jump as buyers Read More 

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Waters Corp Stalls Near Key Retracement

by Arthur Hill

Waters Corp led the market in 2017 with a 65 percent gain, but lagged in 2018 as the stock corrected the last six months. I am watching this correction pattern for a breakout that would signal a continuation of the bigger uptrend. Waters Corp makes analytical equipment and software for laboratories and scientists. How long and how far should a correction extend? When does a correction turn into a something more, such as a bigger downtrend? Those are, of course, the million-dollar questions when analyzing a chart. A lot depends on your timeframe so keep in mind that this is a weekly chart Read More