Art's Charts

Stocks stall as risk-on trade turns mixed

Arthur Hill

Arthur Hill

Chief Technical Strategist, TrendInvestorPro.com

The risk-on trade remains in force, but the bullish case has been weakening since last week. Even though the Euro remains in clear uptrend, supporting the risk-on trade, the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) remains in a downtrend and fell further on Monday. In addition, the Finance SPDR (XLF) was hit hard last week. After a rebound with the market on Friday, XLF fell sharply again on Monday. Oil also benefits from the risk-on trade, but the USO Oil Fund (USO) has not been keeping up with SPY since mid September. SPY hit a new high this week and USO remains well below its mid September high. Falling interest rates, rising bond prices and weakness in oil argue for caution towards equities (risk-off). However, stocks show no signs of weakness just yet.

100928tnx


100928fxe
100928uso

Stocks stalled on Monday with a bout of selling pressure hitting the market in the final hour. Even though the trend is clearly up here, I am leaving the ABC correction possibility on the chart. In addition, the upper trendline was drawn parallel to the lower trendline and its extension marks potential resistance around 115. CCI remains in the indicator window. Notice that CCI dipped below 100 at the end of July and then moved back above in early August. A little reaction low established momentum support at 50. The break below this low in early August coincided with the August decline. A similar low formed in CCI this week. A move below 112 in the ETF and 50 in CCI could be used as a short-term bearish trigger.

100928spyd

On the 60-minute chart, SPY formed a falling flag last week and broke above flag resistance with a gap up on Friday. The gap held and remains bullish until proven otherwise. Support at 112 has been affirmed, as has RSI support in the 40-50 zone. Look for a break below 112 in SPY and 40 in RSI to reverse this short-term uptrend.

100928spyi

It is a pretty big week on the economic front, especially on Friday. Fed governor speaks on Friday morning and the market gets hit with Michigan sentiment, construction spending and the ISM Index around 10AM.

Key Economic Reports:
           
Tue - Sep 28 - 09:00 - Case-Shiller Index    
Tue - Sep 28 - 10:00 - Consumer Confidence    
Wed - Sep 29 - 10:30 - Oil Inventories
Thu - Sep 30 - 08:30 - GDP Estimate    
Thu - Sep 30 - 08:30 - Jobless Claims    
Thu - Sep 30 - 09:45 - Chicago PMI
Thu - Sep 30 - 16:30 – Fed Balance Sheet       
Fri - Oct 01 - 08:30 - Personal Income an Spending   
Fri - Oct 01 - 09:55 - Michigan Consumer Sentiment   
Fri - Oct 01 - 10:00 - Construction Spending    
Fri - Oct 01 - 10:00 - ISM Index    
Fri - Oct 01 - 14:00 - Auto Truck Sales
  
Arthur Hill
About the author: , CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London. Learn More