Despite relative weakness in small-caps, the consumer discretionary sector and the Nasdaq, the bulk of the evidence remains bullish for stocks. Moreover, this indicator summary has been positive since 3-September, five months now. The NYSE AD Line hit a new high this week. The S&P 500 ETF, S&P MidCap 400 SPDR and Dow Industrials SPDR also recorded new 52-week highs. We continue to see signs of relative weakness, but not much absolute weakness. You can read more on Art's Charts here. Details after the jump.
- AD Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq AD Line established support with two reaction lows and remains in an uptrend. The NYSE AD Line hit a new 52-week high this week.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines both remain in uptrends overall. The NY Composite hit a new high this week, but the NYSE AD Volume Line did not, which makes for a small bearish divergence.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Net New Highs for the Nasdaq and NYSE remain firmly positive and the Cumulative Net New Highs lines remain above their 10-day EMAs.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. All Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%. The Finance sector is the weakest of the sectors with a Bullish Percent Index of 67.06%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The S&P 500 Volatility Index ($VIX) and the Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) surged last week, but fell back this week and remain below the trendlines extending down from the August highs.
- Trend Structure: Bullish. DIA, MDY and SPY recorded new 52-week highs this week. IWM and QQQQ fell short, but three out of five clearly favor the bulls.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. MACD(5,35,5) remains in positive territory. RSI is above 50. The Aroon Oscillator is firmly in positive territory.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Neutral. The Technology ETF (XLK) has been lagging since early November and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) has been lagging since late November, but the Industrials SPDR (XLI) and Finance SPDR (XLF) continue to show relative strength since middle-late November.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bearish. While it may be just a pullback, the $COMPQ:$NYA ratio peaked the first week of January and moved lower the last few weeks.
- Small-cap Performance: Bearish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio peaked in mid December and moved sharply lower in 2011. Small-caps are showing relative weakness this year.
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in balance of power (bull/bear) within the stock market. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight. Previous turns include: Started on 11-Sept-09 as positive. Negative on 5-February-10. Positive on 5-March-10. Negative on 11-June-10. Positive on 18-June-10. Negative on 24-June-10. Positive on 6-August-10. Negative on 13-August-10. Positive on 3-September-10.
