There is no change in the analysis for the 60-minute chart and daily chart. SPY gapped up the last two Monday's and both gaps held. The advance appears to be accelerating in February. Notice the sharp advances followed by short pullbacks this month. Yesterday's pullback stopped pretty much after the opening decline. SPY immediately firmed and a break above the afternoon high would provide another short-term signal. Keep in mind that this would be a short-term signal within a short-term uptrend, which is within a medium-term uptrend. The first short-term support zone is marked around 131-131.5. RSI remains in bull mode as it moved above 60 on 1-Feb and remains above its support zone (40-50).
Key Economic Reports/Events:
Feb 16 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Purchase Index
Feb 16 - 08:30 - Housing Starts/Building Permits
Feb 16 - 08:30 - PPI
Feb 16 - 09:15 - Industrial Production
Feb 16 - 10:30 - Crude Inventories
Feb 16 - 14:00 - Fed Minutes
Feb 17 - 08:30 - CPI
Feb 17 - 08:30 - Initial Claims
Feb 17 - 10:00 - Leading Indicators
Feb 17 - 10:00 - Philadelphia Fed
Charts of Interest: Tuesday and Thursday in separate post.
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This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise). We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts. First, it is the only way to really learn. Second, we are the only ones responsible for our decisions. Think of these charts as food for further analysis. Before making a trade, it is important to have a plan. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Among other things, this includes setting a trigger level, a target area and a stop-loss level. It is also important to plan for three possible price movements: advance, decline or sideways. Have a plan for all three scenarios BEFORE making the trade. Consider possible holding times. And finally, look at overall market conditions and sector/industry performance.
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
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