With several more upgrades, the indicator summary moved from +2 to +9 over the last two weeks. Nine of the ten indicator groups are positive or bullish. The AD Lines remain neutral because of a split decision. The Nasdaq AD Line is still in a downtrend, while the NYSE AD Line hit a new high this month. There is some concern with the Nasdaq and NYSE AD Volume Lines. Both surged from mid June to early July, but remain well below their February-May highs. In fact, these two indicators have been flat the entire year and remain in a seven month trading range. The bulls still get the benefit of the doubt because these indicators have yet to actually break down. Elsewhere, we are seeing a renewed appetite for risk this month as the Nasdaq outperforms the NY Composite, the Russell 2000 leads the S&P 100 and the Consumer Discretionary SPDR hit a 52-week high.
- AD Lines: Neutral. The Nasdaq AD Line remains in a downtrend overall, but the NYSE AD Line hit a new high this month and remains bullish.
- AD Volume Lines: Bullish. The AD Volume Lines briefly broke their March lows, but moved right back above with a positive breadth surge.
- Net New Highs: Bullish. Net New Highs surged in late June and early July. The Cumulative Net New Highs Lines are above their 10-day EMAs.
- Bullish Percent Indices: Bullish. Eight of the nine sector Bullish Percent Indices are above 50%. The ninth, Energy, is right at 50%.
- VIX/VXN: Bullish. The CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX) and Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index ($VXN) surged last week, but did not break above the June highs or above 25.
- Trend Structure: Bullish. QQQ, SPY, MDY and IWM challenged their 2011 highs this month. Even though there were no breakouts and stocks pulled back from these higher, there is clearly more evidence of strength than weakness overall.
- SPY Momentum: Bullish. RSI surged above 50 and MACD(5,35,5) moved into positive territory late last month. Aroon (20) moved above +50 in early July.
- Offensive Sector Performance: Bullish. The consumer discretionary sector remains the strongest sector with a new 52-week high this month. Industrials and technology challenged their 2011 highs, but finance remains a big laggard.
- Nasdaq Performance: Bullish. The $COMPQ:$NYA hit a new 52-week high this month as the Nasdaq led the NY Composite higher in late June and early July.
- Small-cap Performance: Bullish. The $RUT:$OEX ratio exceeded its May-June highs this month as small-caps ($RUT) outperformed large-caps ($OEX).
- Breadth Charts (here) and Inter-market charts (here) have been updated.
This table is designed to offer an objective look at current market conditions. It does not aim to pick tops or bottoms. Instead, it seeks to identify noticeable shifts in buying and selling pressure. With 10 indicator groups, the medium-term evidence is unlikely to change drastically overnight.
Previous turns include:
Positive on 11-Sept-09
Negative on 5-Feb-10
Positive on 5-March-10
Negative on 11-Jun-10
Positive on 18-Jun-10
Negative on 24-Jun-10
Positive on 6-Aug-10
Negative on 13-Aug-10
Positive on 3-Sep-10
Negative on 18-Mar-11
Positive on 25-Mar-11
Negative on 17-Jun-11
Positive on 30-Jun-11
