US stocks held up last week, but the advance certainly slowed. IWM led the market with a 1.04% gain last week. SPY was mostly flat with a .20 advance. QQQ declined .35% and QQEW lagged SPY with a .11% gain. Relative weakness in the Nasdaq 100 Equal-Weight ETF (QQEW) is a concern because it points to relative weakness in the tech sector. Oil is also lagging, but I think treasury bonds hold the key to the stock market. The 20+ Year T-Bond ETF (orange) fell .53% last week and this made money available for stocks. TLT has a descending triangle working on the 60-minute chart and a breakdown would signal a continuation lower. The ETF has yet to break support though and a breakout in TLT would be bearish for stocks.
**************************************************************************
**************************************************************************
**************************************************************************
**************************************************************************
**************************************************************************
Key Reports and Events:
Tue - Feb 19 - 10:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index
Wed - Feb 20 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Index
Wed - Feb 20 - 08:30 - Housing Starts/Building Permits
Wed - Feb 20 - 08:30 - Producer Price Index (PPI)
Wed - Feb 20 - 14:00 - FOMC Minutes
Thu - Feb 21 - 08:30 - Jobless Claims
Thu - Feb 21 - 08:30 - Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Thu - Feb 21 - 10:00 - Existing Home Sales
Thu - Feb 21 - 10:00 - Philadelphia Fed
Thu - Feb 21 - 10:00 - Leading Economic Indicators
Thu - Feb 21 - 10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories
Thu - Feb 21 - 11:00 - Oil Inventories
Sun - Feb 24 - 10:00 – Italian Parliamentary Elections
Fri – Mar 01 - 23:59 – Sequester Takes Effect (unless...)
Wed – Mar 27 - 23:59 – Government Shut Down Deadline
Wed – May 15 - 23:59 – New Debt Ceiling Deadline lexicon prognosis
Charts of Interest: Tuesday and Thursday
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts. First, it is
the only way to really learn. Second, we are the only ones responsible for our decisions.
Think of these charts as food for further analysis. Before making a trade, it is important
to have a plan. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Among other things, this includes setting
a trigger level, a target area and a stop-loss level. It is also important to plan for three
possible price movements: advance, decline or sideways. Have a plan for all three scenarios
BEFORE making the trade. Consider possible holding times. And finally, look at overall market
conditions and sector/industry performance.
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
Learn More
