Stocks opened weak on Monday, but quickly recovered and edged into positive territory. The overall gains were rather paltry with the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gaining .24% and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) advancing .53%. The sectors were mixed with small gains and losses. The Technology SPDR (XLK) stood out with a .66% advance. Strength in the Semiconductor SPDR (XSD) and Networking iShares (IGN) propelled the tech sector. Gold marked the big bright spot with the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) surging over 5% and the Silver Miners (SIL) advancing over 6%. This, of course, was based on a surge in silver and gold. Today is important for the retail group because Retail Sales will be reported before the opening bell. Recent warnings from AEO and ARO will not factor into this report, but investors watch retail sales because it consumer spending accounts for around 2/3 of GDP. The chart below shows the Retail SPDR (XRT) holding above support at 80. A small pennant formed the last few days and this is the first short-term pattern to watch.
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Key Reports and Events (all times Eastern):
Tue - Aug 13 - 08:30 - Retail Sales
Wed - Aug 14 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Index
Wed - Aug 14 - 08:30 - Producer Price Index (PPI)
Wed - Aug 14 - 10:30 - Crude Oil Inventories
Thu - Aug 15 - 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
Thu - Aug 15 - 08:30 - Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Thu - Aug 15 - 08:30 - Empire State Manufacturing Index
Thu - Aug 15 - 09:15 - Industrial Production
Thu - Aug 15 - 10:00 - Philadelphia Fed
Thu - Aug 15 - 10:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index
Thu - Aug 15 - 10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories
Fri - Aug 16 - 08:30 - Housing Starts/Building Permits
Fri - Aug 16 - 09:55 - Michigan Sentiment
Charts of Interest: Tuesday and Thursday
This commentary and charts-of-interest are designed to stimulate thinking. This analysis is
not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or sell short any security (stock ETF or otherwise).
We all need to think for ourselves when it comes to trading our own accounts. First, it is
the only way to really learn. Second, we are the only ones responsible for our decisions.
Think of these charts as food for further analysis. Before making a trade, it is important
to have a plan. Plan the trade and trade the plan. Among other things, this includes setting
a trigger level, a target area and a stop-loss level. It is also important to plan for three
possible price movements: advance, decline or sideways. Have a plan for all three scenarios
BEFORE making the trade. Consider possible holding times. And finally, look at overall market
conditions and sector/industry performance.
About the author:
Arthur Hill, CMT, is the Chief Technical Strategist at TrendInvestorPro.com. Focusing predominantly on US equities and ETFs, his systematic approach of identifying trend, finding signals within the trend, and setting key price levels has made him an esteemed market technician. Arthur has written articles for numerous financial publications including Barrons and Stocks & Commodities Magazine. In addition to his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation, he holds an MBA from the Cass Business School at City University in London.
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